EleBlog

29 Jun, 2009

Every month, the American Institute of Architects reports on what its members are seeing -- the "work on the boards" data.

Is this scientific? I trust it more than "sentiment" indices (which ask people how they feel about things). The survey that leads to this report is asking AIA member what they are seeing at their companies. Plus, the guy who supervises things (Kermit Baker, AIA's chief economist) seems to me to be an economist who you might actually trust (as opposed to, say, Ben Bernanke!).

One month ago, the "architecture billing index" (official name) showed "optimism," according to reports. The report for May  put the index at 42.9, up a smidge from the 42.8 in April. Essentially, no movement. Two interesting notes (see the longer of two reports on the June data here).

1. Baker's comments noted that the May data "indicates that business conditions at architecture firms are still deteriorating." That tempers the optimism with which the report on April's data was greeted.

2. There is a component of this report -- "inquiries for new project activity" -- that came in strong for the 3rd straight month. But here's what Baker wrote about that:

29 Jun, 2009

For reasons that anger me too much to note here, I didn't get to Philadelphia for the PV America event a few weeks ago. Here's what people who DID show up had to say about it:

29 Jun, 2009

I stumbled over a LOOOONG web page of links, apparently updated monthly, on the Financial Crisis -- from a legal point-of-view. It's on the site of Morrison Foerster. There are an incredible number of links. Here's the directory to the page (these are not the links, but the LISTS of links on the page) --

29 Jun, 2009

I just stumbled across a page on the AIA site with PDFs of presentation from the architects' 2009 annual convention. Some stuff EleBlog visitors might find interesting:


The first two are 13 pages each; the last is 5.

The 2nd is from CEDIA; the 3rd is from Lutron.

25 Jun, 2009

I'm not happy for my country, but I am reasonably enjoying the fact that I was right about this (at least in the short term). I've added some boldfacing to the piece and a comment at the end.

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25 Jun, 2009

Jerry Yudelson blogs weekly for TEDGreenRoom.com. Disclaimer: I work (as a freelance writer) for TED and TEDMAG, so this isn't entirely disinterested.

However, you SHOULD get over to his most recent post, What Makes Smart Meters So Smart? Short, to the point, and with links if you want more.

25 Jun, 2009

The April issue of WIRED magazine put the grid on the cover. I know this comes a couple of months late, but if you didn't see it, and you don't get the magazine (and most people certainly do NOT read the thing and do NOT receive it) -- see the thing here. 

25 Jun, 2009

It's true what they say about Depressions (and Recessions, and bad times in general) -- the strong get stronger, and the weak disappear. In previous posts (earlier this year), I've noted how many trade magazines are closing down, shifting to web-only publication, or reducing their frequency (i.e., from 12x/year to 6x/year).

But see this item on BuildingOnline.com. McGraw-Hill Construction, which is certainly one of the strong (if not THE strongest), is said to be starting a new 6x publication, SNAP (Sweets News and Products).

That's what real capitalists do. They wait for the bottom and they start a business; when the economic tide comes in (and it will, eventually, even if this IS a Depression!!!) -- their boats float and the cash comes rolling in. Same thing with the stock market: Pretty soon, the S&P 500 will crash from the 900 level . . . perhaps back down to 666, perhaps below that . . . and savvy people will start cherry-picking the cheap stocks that will make them money in the 2012-15 period.

But to DO that, beyond being very smart -- you have got to have money!

25 Jun, 2009

Several posts back (6/23), the May "construction starts" $$$ values from McGraw-Hill Construction were posted here.

Now, you can go over and see the recent newsletter with contrasting May analysis from MHC's competitor, Reed Construction Data.

The gist:

25 Jun, 2009

I have been contending that the U.S. (and perhaps the world) is in a Depression. Lots of folks have said that's nonsense (and not because I said it). One guy, in the distribution business, wrote a column that compared the unemployment rate (8%, he said) to the 1932 horror (25%).

I wrote a response on TEDMAG.com (now lost, as the website is in transition) noting that

1. The 8% rate isn't comparable to what we had in the 1930s. The headline unemployment measure back then wasn't factored the way it is today. You can dive into the monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and find the number of REAL unemployed and underemployed -- roughly 15.6%.

Compare 15.6% with 25%.

2. Further, the unemployment rate during the 1930s Depression wasn't 25% for the whole time. I found an article on the BLS website that showed the annual average unemployment rates. In 1931 (roughly comparable to where we might be in the CURRENT Depression!) . . . it was on the order of 16%.

Therefore, we were right on schedule.

- - - - -

So much for my brilliance. However, there is an article that has been making the rounds of various financial blogs (and was even discussed at length in the Financial Times by Martin Wolf, a widely respected economist who writes regularly for the FT).

The article: "A Tale Of Two Depressions" is worth reading. It's simple. It's got a lot of charts. And one conclusion is that this time it's WORSE than the 1930s.

EleBlog take: Hang on, there might be worse coming.

23 Jun, 2009

According to Environmental Leader --


On the same subject: There's an EV show coming up in August in Long Beach, Calif. -- Plug In 2009.

23 Jun, 2009

The latest two Special Reports posted to TEDMAG.com (by yours truly) covered two panels of four members each on GREEN topics from the NAED Leadership Summit, held last month.

Four electrical manufacturing execs

Four real estate/facilities execs.

23 Jun, 2009

McGraw-Hill Construction says the $ value of construction starts in May was up from April. But here's the 5-month UNadjusted total, from the bottom of the report. Doesn't look so spectacular, does it?

YEAR-TO-DATE CONSTRUCTION STARTS
Unadjusted Totals, In Millions of Dollars

	5 Mo. 2009	5 Mo. 2008	% Change
Nonresidential Building	$62,374	$109,670	-43
Residential Building	39,378	76,589	-49
Nonbuilding Construction	52,465	61,357	-14
Total Construction	$154,217	$247,616	-38

23 Jun, 2009

Plant Engineering put together a 3-article package on Arc Flash Code Issues. The articles are:

23 Jun, 2009

From the May issue of Black Enterprise (I've bold-faced the interesting sentence):

As the money from the stimulus package makes its way through the economy and the cost of solar photovoltaic technology becomes cheaper, Burger says the technology will eventually become a standard item in residential and commercial construction, such as large installations on flat roofs or structures that shade parking lots. He says he also expects more electrical contractors to follow Holston's example by adding solar to their offerings.

"That you have electrical contractors like Erik and his company getting into the business is a very good sign because it shows that the construction and building trades, which have been rather conservative, are realizing the benefits and the opportunity in solar and other renewable technologies, and it becomes an important business line for them. It then becomes important for the public because this shows that this technology isn't something exotic or esoteric. It's very promising when somebody can look in the phone book or online and see there's someone in their community who can do this stuff," Burger says.

Note: Erik Holston is the electrical contractor featured in the story. "Burger" is a principal at Kestrel Development (Oak Park, Ill.), a "renewable energy policy and market development firm." More here.
 (More)

23 Jun, 2009

I'm not sure how, but I tripped over this: Copper Makes New Gains In Transmission and Distribution Industry. Read this slice of it and you'll probably click on through:

23 Jun, 2009

Yes, this has nothing to do with electrical work. But there's a fascinating online animation of why the curveball has been "voted Visual Illision of the Year by the U.S. Vision Sciences Society," according to New Scientist. 

21 Jun, 2009

A short note was posted here one week ago on Warren Buffet's pre-fab -- the "i-House" from Clayton Homes. I came across a bit more detail, a story that includes two links to VIDEOS with more info on what the modular homebuilder is doing. 

21 Jun, 2009

Intel says its "wireless resonant energy link" is about 5 to 7 years away from commercialization. But this article will make you think. BE SURE to read thru to the end of the short piece, where there are three short paragraphs about "energy harvesting."

Note that a post in March 2006 here on The EleBlog talked about ambient power harvesting.

21 Jun, 2009

I have come to respect the website, The Oil Drum. Leave aside the focus there on the "peak oil" explanation of things (with which I am increasingly coming to agree). The site feature some well-crafted "think" pieces on energy issues. In other words, it's not all about "peak oil, peak oil, peak oil."

One such article, posted 6/1, was "Some Cautionary Thoughts About Wind" -- which came with this graphic.

21 Jun, 2009

A May article in CSE magazine notes that "NEC 2008 will change the way panelboards are specified." A tiny piece of it:

21 Jun, 2009

I have to admit, I haven't kept "up" with fiber optic standards. If you might need to, see this page of the Fiber Optics LAN Section website, which offers an update from 2/09. 

21 Jun, 2009

A lengthy article (almost 3,500 words) I found on Alternet.org came from Washington Monthly. It talks about Germany's experience with feed-in solar tariffs, what's happening around Gainesville, Fla., and an electrical contractor (Tim Morgan). Here are three key snippets (I've bolded some of the words):


+

The policy has allowed Germany not only to meet but to exceed its renewable energy goals. Initially, the aim was to get 12 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2010. But it passed that milestone three years early, and has since reached the 15 percent mark -- the most rapid growth seen in any country. By mid-century, Germany aims to increase that share to 50 percent.

Already, the nation, which is about as sunny as Juneau, Alaska, is home to almost half the world’s solar generating capacity, and churns out more solar power than any country except Japan. Although it is half the size of Texas, and far less windy, it is also vying with the United States for the number one spot when it comes to generating capacity for wind power.

+

21 Jun, 2009

An article carrying a GE byline explains how the company's "Energy Treasure Hunts" work. These things are alleged to have saved the company more than $110 million! The thing starts on a Sunday afternoon (!) --

17 Jun, 2009

Eaton Corp. now offers a "blackout tracker" online for Canada. 

17 Jun, 2009

Yesterday's news headlines included a 17.2% gain in housing starts in May over April. Sounds like a green shoot! But it "feels" wrong. So I downloaded the press release (from the Census Bureau and HUD). Some facts:

a. The seasonally adjusted annual rate for May is 532,000. That still SUCKS. We were building 2 million homes a year not long ago.

b. The SAAR for April (revised) was 454,000. That's the 17.2% increase, from 454K to 532K.

c. May 2008's rate was 971,000, so year-over-year, housing starts in May were DOWN 45%.

d. As is my habit, I paged back to the UNADJUSTED data. Here are single-family housing starts for 2009 so far:


e. Starts for the year-to-date (single-family ONLY) are 151,900. For 2008's first five months, 1-family starts were 290,600. And 2008 wasn't such a good year.

f. Take May as the best month of the year so far. Assume we're gong to have 7 more months of 50,000 starts each (OPTIMISTIC!!!). That would mean 1-family starts in 2009 would be, at best, 500,000. Great, eh? NO. Last year, 1-family starts finished at 622,000. In 2007, 1-family starts were 1,046,000.

g. SO -- from where did that 17% gain come from? Why the positive spin? Multi-family starts (5 dwelling units each or more) were 10,900 in May, up from 5,900 in April. This isn't a tally of buildings, it's units (in other words, apartment buildings that -- when finished -- will have 10,900 dwelling units in them were started in May). The multifamily numbers are notoriously volatile, meaning they bounce around a lot from month to month.

Bottom line: It's better to have single-family starts increasing by 5,600 homes in May from April. It's better to have the apartment-start volatility bounce UP than downin a given month. But there's not much here to get excited about, unfortunately.

17 Jun, 2009

Time: 1 min 54 seconds. No kidding. The car's fuel is "derived from chocolate waste products." The steering wheel is . . . made of carrots! 

17 Jun, 2009

A video (with a transcript) of an interview with Brian Stigson, president of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, can be found on E+ETV. Here's a Q and Stigson's A:

Q: President Obama, however, has received a lot of criticism for trying to tackle energy and climate in the current economic downturn. Can we afford to be sustainable and implement all of these sustainable practices?

Björn Stigson: Well, we don't see this as a big burden on the economy. When we look at actions on energy efficiency we see short payback terms. Will we have an immediate payback? Of course not.

So you can always discuss when you put policies in place, should you start in 2009 or do you put the policies in place and they really kick in in 2010 or beginning 2011 when we probably are in a little bit of a different phase of the economic cycle? But for us this is not an either or, you do this or you save the economy.

A lot of what you do on energy efficiency will create jobs. It's often very local actions, if you take buildings as an example. Our estimate is that if we go forward with an aggressive plan for energy efficiency in buildings we will create 2 million jobs in the U.S. alone and that will be local jobs and not only high-level jobs, but electricians, installers and so on that can install the equipment that we already have today. So this is something that you can get going with very quickly.

17 Jun, 2009

Cost is $99 for the June 30th webinar, but it's from CE Pro magazine. I was just leafing through the mag's most recent issue yesterday, and I remain impressed with the work of these people. I haven't tuned in to a CE Pro webinar yet, but I have to believe they will do this very well, too.

Additionally, the topic is HOT. I've written about digital healthcare (home or clinic or hospital) in the past, and recently (at the spring BICSI event in Baltimore) attended a session on hospitals and digital. It was swell; I intend to write about it some time. What I remember from that session is that I was sorry to see it end.

Perhaps this webinar will be the same sort of thing.

15 Jun, 2009

. . . also put together for Bisbee's June HOTS column -- a long table on the electricians (and telecom installers, security techs, and others in the top 10 occupations) working for electrical contractors, circa 2006.

By the way HOTS = heard on the street.

15 Jun, 2009

I put together a table (using government data) on needs for electricians in the year 2016 -- and wrote it up (in brief) for Frank Bisbee's June HOTS column on Wireville.com. 

15 Jun, 2009

Can't canceal the surround-sound speaker wiring behind a wall, under a floor, or in a ceiling? Electronic House has five solutions for you. 

15 Jun, 2009

Occupant education is the missing link in green building, according to a story in The Oregonian. Here's the basic thinking in a nutshell-ish few sentences:

15 Jun, 2009

The "I-House" is a solar-powered, energy-efficient prefab house from Clayton Homes (the manufactured housing company owned by Berkshire Hathaway, which is run by Warren Buffet). More here.  (More)

15 Jun, 2009

I've written about the Smart Grid, but I still find -- still am fascinated by -- the various visions and versions of this thing. Here's a slice of a Q+A with the president of of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (I added the bolding)

Instead of that, for instance, we could have a machine that makes ice when the wind blows. You have wind turbines, the wind blows at night, you need air conditioning in the daytime. You make ice when the wind blows and you get your air conditioning from the coldness stored in the ice.

And this machine is now commercially available. Companies are willing to work with utilities. This is a way in which you could essentially eliminate the peak load in the summers and shift it to the times when renewable energy is available.

But to do it, you need the air conditioning and ice making machines to be able to talk to the meteorological tower near the wind turbine. That takes a smart meter. It takes a control point at the user's end and it takes a control point at the generating end and the two need to be connected. That is the promise of a smart grid - software, electronics, the Internet.

Once you have a smart grid, you're in a different universe than the one with 1,000 megawatt machines that are always waiting on you hand and foot.

15 Jun, 2009

According to this report, researchers at the U. of Rochester have found that:

An ultra-powerful laser can turn regular incandescent light bulbs into power-sippers . . . The process could make a light as bright as a 100-watt bulb consume less electricity than a 60-watt bulb while remaining far cheaper and radiating a more pleasant light than a fluorescent bulb can.

The laser process creates a unique array of nano- and micro-scale structures on the surface of a regular tungsten filament—the tiny wire inside a light bulb—and these structures make the tungsten become far more effective at radiating light.

Got that? Maybe the incandescent bulb is NOT going to go away (?) . . .

 (More)

13 Jun, 2009

The AIA's weekly newsletter 6/12 included a write-up of the Commercial Real Estate Energy Alliance, a new plaything of the Department of Energy (one of several alliances -- find out more on this DoE web page).

Here's an interesting snippet buried deep in the AIA report -- I've boldfaced the piece that I really like:

Dave Pogue, the national director of sustainability for institutional and corporate services at CB Richard Ellis, says the way technology is currently introduced to the commercial real estate marketplace is a cautious process that helps abate potential risk.

“Generally, what we might do is beta test on a couple of buildings,” he says, but the beta test adds time to the process. “I think that’s what DOE is looking for in the near term: speed to market. They’d like to compress the time frame from good idea to application to broad application of programs and systems and the like.”

13 Jun, 2009

Apparently, an ongoing project detailed on BuildingGreenTV.com is an off-grid house built with SIPs. 

13 Jun, 2009

I've heard at various times recently (from contractors) that they are now finding 12 to 20 bidders competing with them for jobs on which they once encountered only 3 to 5. In such situations, of course, you feel like you might be wasting time going in. Then you feel like a chump if you end up winning!

Cases in point: "grab bag" notes in The Times-Union of Albany, NY --

5/20 -- John Coyne Electrical Contractors (East Greenbush) was low bidder on electrical contract for laundry facilities at the Brookwood Secure Center. There were 10 electrical contract bidders, four on the HVAC work, and three on the plumbing.

6/2 -- Phoenix Electricians (Cairo) was low at $19,447 on "the electricall portion of a contract to replace boilers" at a residential center in Ulster County. Bidders: 11.

13 Jun, 2009

A blogger noted in a 6/11 post that a minimum program requirement in LEED had mysteriously disappeared. Then he corrected himself (if you click thru, make sure to read down to the bottom of the blog, to the copy in italics). The language he though twas gone "is buried in the legal mumbo-jumbo section." 

13 Jun, 2009

For cheaper solar, fix the inverters -- that's the headline on a 6/5 post to a Technology Review blog. Some raw meat (results of a study) --

13 Jun, 2009

According to Kitco.com's copper price charts (see 'em here), copper has gone from $2.00 roughly 30 days ago to a close about $2.34 per pound yesterday.

But here comes a story from Purchasing.com in which an analyst says (still) that copper prices for calendar 2009 will average $1.70.

. . . that's what make horse races. And it might make the electrical business a bit more complicated from here to Christmas, too.

10 Jun, 2009

An AIA newsletter last week featured a Q-and-A on "design" with a Target executive. Here's what he said in answer to a question on sustainability:

We now have four LEED™-Silver stores. They can add cost, so we are careful about each of the things that we do to get to those LEED levels. We are probably more interested in the energy side, so we’re part of the EnergyStar® program. We have had all of our stores evaluated and feel that virtually all the stores would score high enough to receive the EnergyStar citation.

Now we have to have a professional engineer visit each store and evaluate them before we can get that. But that does cost a bit of money, so we are evaluating the value of doing that for all the stores. But I think that you’d find that our performance in that program is the best of any retailer, or very close to it.

We have 18 stores, almost all in California, with photovoltaic installations across the roof. We have a team that’s constantly watching for opportunities to do more of those. It usually takes a partnership with the utility or a governmental entity that’s providing some of the subsidy to make it happen financially.

We can go on and on. There are a lot of things we do in the building and recycling construction materials that all fit into LEED classifications. Probably half of our stores go into sites that were already used for something else. There’s a great deal of remediation of brownfields. Going forward, because of the economy and changes in demographics, the bulk of our stores will be going into already built up urban zones and therefore into properties that are being redeveloped and cleaned up. We may see a lot more LEED-rated stores going forward.

10 Jun, 2009

The Christian Science Monitor several weeks ago ran a story about energy efficiency, lighting, and such. It's a pretty good piece, interesting to read. Check out these slick paragraphs:

Osram Sylvania already sells premium-priced fluorescent bulbs that meet the highest possible standard DOE might soon implement. But some company officials say the toughest standard being weighed for fluorescent tube lights is not the most appropriate.

“One concern we have is that legislators are listening to all the press releases about what future technology can do, but not paying attention to real life,” says Susan Anderson, energy relations manager for Osram Sylvania.

Many residential customers, she notes, have older fluorescent fixtures that are incompatible with high-efficiency bulbs, so the toughest standard would force homeowners to replace not just bulbs, but fixtures as well.

Technology experts at Sylvania say they can make lighting more efficient but that technical hurdles are getting higher. “We’re reaching the limit in gaining savings from the lamp alone,” says Martin Zachau, vice president of research and development. “A lot of future potential energy savings is really more in the electronics than the lamp itself. It’s a growing challenge.”

10 Jun, 2009

It's not as popular as LEED or ENERGY STAR, but there is a measuring stick out there to quantify a building's "intelligence." It's called BiQ (building intelligence quotient) -- and it's explained in detail (2,250 words) here. 

10 Jun, 2009

What do you get for 16 tons of coal, an old song asked. More recently, a Utilipoint exec answered the question in a column, with some interesting data:

10 Jun, 2009

The skilled workforce shortage hasn't gone away. YES, the skilled people that everyone thought would start retiring soon might be delaying their ultimate exit from daily labor (due to reductions in their 401(k) balances, other savings, and the greatly reduced values of their homes).

But here's a sampler of recent reading:

May 2009 T&D World -- "30% or more of the existing utility workforce is or will be eligible for retirement in the next five years."

Dec/Jan SOLARPRO magazine (5p PDF) -- "Extending the federal tax credits for solar through 2016 is expected to create 440,000 permanent jobs in the U.S. solar industry, according to Navigant Consulting" from Mark Culpepper, vp at SunEdison: "Right now, I would call it a marginal roadblock. In the future, it could become a very big roadblock."

10 Jun, 2009

An AP report from late last month notes that Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) thinks we should build 100 nuclear power plants in the next 20 years.

I actually have had similar, more-radical thoughts. Just in case coal really IS calling global warming, it's dumb to build a single new coal plant. If we're going to retire coal plants as they age, we're going to need to replace them. If we replace them with plants powered with natural gas, we're going to cause the price of that commodity to soar.

Nuclear can be the answer. It's non-polluting (potentially). We need to solve the nuclear waste disposal problem -- and I think we can. We need to solve the problem of non-standardized power plants -- and that's easily done.

For several years now, I've envisioned nuclear power as the "transition" electricity generating source, the thing that gets us from where we are now to where we're going to be (solar, wind, fuel cells, you-name-it -- all operating on a unified national "Smart Grid").

Here's the thing: My vision (and Alexander's) is EXPENSIVE. To do nuclear power the right way, you'd have to make the plants a lot more expensive (and they already are more expensive now compared with the 104 commercial nukes now in operation). If you did disposal right, add MORE costs.

So what? That's the cost of a bridge to the future.

08 Jun, 2009

A 5/29 NECA release notes that 92 members of Congress showed up at local NECA-IBEW JATCs to look at the unionized electrical construction industry's "green" training.

I'm not sure if that includes Senators or not. If it does, it's 92 out of 535, which is a pretty good result. If it's just counting people from the House of Representatives, it's 92 out of 435.

Now, I know, I know -- NECA-IBEW is union. I work for NECA-IBEW. This whole thing is awful, I'm prejudiced, blahblahblah.

That's not the point here. It's good for the elected folks (in Washington or anywhere else) to get out and rub shoulders with people in the electrical construction industry. This is a good thing for the country, as well as a good thing for the industry.

08 Jun, 2009

"Prevent 17 Common Lighting Mistakes" is a Buildings magazine article. It's 1,935 words, which is about 100 words per miscue. Here's #13, which is about end-zone dancing, I guess:

08 Jun, 2009

"5 more ways to prewire your home" is on the Electronic House magazine site, but it was written by Julie Jacobson (of CE Pro). Here's one of the five, and it's interesting:

08 Jun, 2009

AGC issued a release 6/3 saying that construction employment in the year to 4/09 "fell in 288 of the nation's largest 311 metro areas." Wow. 

08 Jun, 2009

Last week, I spent some time writing an article about "carbon footprinting." It won't see the light of day for some weeks, and prob. won't be posted to the web for two months. I'll link to it when it's "up" and ready.

However, I accessed a lot of info that I don't want to lose. One website of interest was CarbonCatalog.org. One item, "Managing Corporate Carbon Legally and Practically," was really, really interesting. Just the headline (the phrase "corporate carbon" was new on me, although that may say more about me than the phrase).

Of course, "carbon footprints" and "corporate carbon" might seem to be pretty Out There for some. But the guy on the "A side of the Q+A made a lot of sense. Here are three paragraphs comprising a well-thought-out approach:

It’s far easier, useful, and practical to produce estimates for entire facilities over which your organization has majority control. This includes joint ventures. The numbers will change year to year anyway, as product lines are added or closed out. The public, governments, and competitors do not need to see the details of plant operations. And, you pay the electric bill for a whole facility, not for each product line. To do otherwise is just asking for frustration. And it will fragment small businesses from larger ones.

It’s more important to be able to make a reasonable estimate of how much reduction of emissions can be achieved year-by-year, decade-by-decade, than it is to estimate the baseline emissions of a company or business. Outside consultants are in no position to know how much efficiency can be wrung out of a process or business model. You are always better off to start with inside experts, guided by outside consultants rather than the other way around.

08 Jun, 2009

The Electrical Contractors Association's Dave Staefanowicz has written about "Electrical Contractors and Smart Homes Today." No, not NECA, and not any other association in the U.S. This is from the UK. Here are an interesting coupla paragraphs:

Due to the increased popularity of the smart home market, the Electrical Contractors Association's (ECA) technology team has increased the amount of guidance on audiovisual systems available to members. The ECA has also teamed up with AMX, and will be running advisory seminars in AMX's London showroom for their members. In addition, the ECA offers its members a company qualification scheme that involves onsite inspection of work, and a six-year warranty scheme, guaranteeing client confidence and satisfaction.

The European Electrical Contractors' Association (AIE) and the European Telecommunication Services Association (ETSA) will shortly be announcing the launch of its 'European Smart Home Installers Scheme,' aimed at helping clients to identify companies who design, install, maintain and service smart home installations. Their system introduces the world's first system for grading smart home systems in terms of smartness and energy efficiency.

Things, obviously, are different in the Old World.

08 Jun, 2009

Fast Company magazine ran an article in its February issue -- on wireless electricity. Seriously. Here's a slice of it:

05 Jun, 2009

There's a one-month lag in data for Electrical Contracting employment -- so where we have May numbers for everything else, for the EC workforce we are one month behind.

In April, ECs had 633,800 employees on average (subject to revision), down 2,500 from the March revised figure of 636,300.

Call April flat with March.


Thus far (thru 4 months), EC employment in every month in 2009 has started with a "6", whereas for 12 months of 2007 AND 2008, every month's average started with a "7".

05 Jun, 2009

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the construction industry had 4,810,000 employed as of May, up 120,000 from April. Both numbers are subject to further revision.

May's figure is down 15.3% below May 2008. April 2009 was 14.8% below last year's comparable month.

05 Jun, 2009

Trying to figure out how the May unemployment number came in relatively low (compared to the past few months), I went to the Bureau of Labor Statistics site to look at how many jobs were added (or subtracted) by the BLS economists via the Birth/Death Model.

What is the Birth/Death Model? It's an attempt by the BLS to estimate how many jobs were created in the economy that the BLS can't "find" through its various official tracking efforts.

In April and May of 2008 (one year ago), the B/D Model ADDED 1,246,000 jobs to the national employment estimates. This is from the "not seasonally adjusted" piece of the B/D page.

In April and May of 2009, the B/D model added (subject to revision) 590,000 jobs to the national employment estimates. 319,000 were added in May (220,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis).

WHAT THIS MEANS: Take out the B/D Model (put it at zero) and the unemployment number for May would have been 567,000 rather than 345,000. I think.

- - - - -

UNFAIR: It's unfair to pick on the B/D Model because of what it did or did not do in May or April-and-May together. ON THE OTHER HAND: Considering we are going through a kinda UNIQUE economic period, the idea that the BLS economists know what they are doing right now is fairly ridiculous.

My preference would be to avoid using B/D Model numbers at all and to go with just the Establishment data. But that's not happening, and it's not going to happen.

BUT . . . in a difficult period for the global and national economy, isn't it kinda hard to believe that tiny existing businesses and start-up companies created 590,000 jobs in the 61 days between 4/1/09 and 5/31/09????

05 Jun, 2009

The BLS release (every month) provides "alternative measures of labor underutilization." The number to look at here (it's in Table A-12 of the release) is U-6 -- which is (breathe first before reading this aloud!) --


The figure for May 2009, no seasonally adjusted, is 15.9%. It was 15.4% last month and 9.4% one year ago.

In May 2007, it was 7.9%.

05 Jun, 2009

More than one hour ago, the news came out that national unemployment increased by only 345,000 in May 2009. That's a big number, but it's smaller than previous months -- by HUNDREDS of thousands!!!

So I downloaded the Bureau of Labor Statistics release. Here's what I see on just the first two pages:

Paragraph One, page one -- "nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in May . . . the unemployment rate continue dto rise, increasing from 8.9% to 9.4%."

Paragraph Two, page one (I kid you not) -- beneath a subhed that says "Unemployment (Household Survey Data)" -- "The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May."

Table A -- under the column heading April-May change --


- - - - -

So what's the correct number? The difference between the household survey number (787K more unemployed in May) and the "official" number in the headlines (345K more unemployed) is that the official number comes from a survey (of, if I remember correctly, 400,000 employers). The household number comes from a phone survey of 60,000 citizens (if I remember correctly).

I've asserted in the past that I'd rather go with the Establishment survey. That still seems reasonable to me.

- - - - -

Some other random data:

a. The civilian labor force increased by 350,000 people from April to May.

b. The number of people "not in labor force" decreased by 170,000 from April to May.

c. These two things along could have contributed to the increase in the number of unemployed to 14,511,000 in May (from 13.7M in April).

More in the next posts above.

04 Jun, 2009

I've spoken to two folks from large electrical contracting companies this week. One is in the Midwest, the other in central Virginia. I had work to do, the conversations were mostly about that. But I stuck in an off-the-record question at the end of each conversation: "How's business?"

Answer: It's not so bad right this minute, but when we look ahead to the summer (July-Aug and beyond) . . . it really sucks.

Among other things:

-- layoffs coming

-- 15 to 20 bidders on jobs where not too long ago there were 3 to 5

-- "everybody's bidding below cost to get work" (to keep the core crew members busy)

-- "we are developing budget numbers for some people" -- which means there ARE projects in the design process, but -- if they get off the boards and into ground-breaking -- those are months and months away from generating significant electrical work.

I don't know how long this lasts, but I suspect it's going to be a while; and it's going to really suck.

04 Jun, 2009

One of the few frustrations I have in my work is that I will NOT permit myself to buy the stocks of companies in the electrical industry. The reason is simple: I'm likely to write about them at any given moment. I'm a selfish bastard. If I own the stock of, say, Hubbell, I'm likely to write very glowing things about Kellems, for example.

So, to avoid temptation (and to appear as pristine as a Vestal Virgin) -- I avoid any appearance of impropriety.

Well, I have to tell you, I am very frustrated about the performance of EMCOR Stock (symbol EME). Take a look:



This is the 3-month chart. The stock has run up from $14-$15 to $23-$24. I did notice that it was down around $15, and I would have bought it at the time. I'm not sure I'd be selling now (hint, hint!) . . . but the run up from $15 to $23 is a 53% move. In three months.

Note that the run-up in the S&P 500 index in that same period is about 35%.

04 Jun, 2009

TEDGreenRoom.com featured 3 items on electrical contractors + green (and one more on a mechanical) in its most recent posting:

04 Jun, 2009

The Fed and the White House heard recently from Ken Simonson, chief economist for the AGC, on how the construction industry is faring in the economy. According to Ken, he was the only construction person in these meetings. On the other side of the table: Goolsbee of the White House in one meeting, Bernanke of the Fed in the other. 

04 Jun, 2009

The NY Times' "Green Inc." blog asks whether incandescents can be made more efficient. A slice of the thing:

Michael Siminovitch, the director of the California Lighting Technology Center, described super-efficient incandescents as the “holy grail” of lighting research right now.

“The stuff is happening, and will happen,” Mr. Siminovitch said. “We’re all going to be doing it because people hate fluorescents so much.”

EleBlog take: Mr. S is absolutely correct!

04 Jun, 2009

In order to avoid eliminating staff positions, the American Institute of Architects shut down this week. Yes, shut down, as in closed its offices. For a week. It's called a "furlough," and what happens is that the people who work there don't get paid for the week.

I'm aware of other orgs where folks are having a "rolling" furlough -- everyone gets to take a week "off" (unpaid) . . . but not at the same time. This is wild!

04 Jun, 2009

TEDMAG this past week posted a Special Report based on what I heard at LightFair (early May, NYC) about LEDs. It wasn't all good. In fact, it was surprisingly BAD. What that means: I was surprised, anyway. 

02 Jun, 2009

Via the services of BOM magazine, GE Lighting is presenting a free webinar on lighting on June 11. From the propaganda:

Key Learning Objectives:

1) Understand today's lighting options (including LEDs) so that you can maximize your facility's appearance and savings, by comparing what you currently have with today's most efficient solutions

2) Stay compliant with legislation and learn how to take advantage of the incentives, rebates & tax deductions that help improve your already attractive lighting retrofit ROI

3) Understand the economic value of lighting upgrades and learn how to arrive at the right decision for your facility

02 Jun, 2009

8-minute video on Green Remodeling (residential) from Bloomberg.com. Worth a watch.

Note: I work in the basement of my home. I have the TV on while I work, sound off. For YEARS, it was on CNBC. Sometimes, I turned the sound on (when they had a guest like Jimmy Rogers -- a guy whose ideas I want to hear -- or when I needed distraction from a long work day).

I came to hate CNBC.

A few months ago, I switched to Bloomberg.com. The switch involved paying my cable company $2 more a month, which doesn't make me happy. But Bloomberg.com is a much better alternative to CNBC. There's no rah-rah-sis-boom-bah stuff. I don't watch Larry Kudlow anymore and wonder why he's not in a cheerleader outfit, complete with pom-poms.

That being said: I like the way this video BEGINS. Bloomberg's reporters/producers acutely point out that "green" residential remodeling means different things to different people, and the first seconds show four people providing completely at-odds definitions.

02 Jun, 2009

While I was at Jim Haughey's blog, I noticed 2 other recent posts:

Construction wage gains weaken -- this is about union construction.

Economic recovery in 2009-2010, but problems beyond -- I think this perspective might prove to be VERY correct, and VERY VERY important.

. . . . Maybe very very very. Here's Jim's conclusion:

02 Jun, 2009

Freaking out a bit (which is why I waited a day to post all this), I went to Jim Haughey's blog. He's the Reed Construction Data economist. His take on the numbers: "MISLEADING."

It was a short 2-paragraph entry. I'm going to regurgitate all of it here (here's a link to Jim's blog) because this is important. I've subdivided some of the paragraphs for emphasis or easier reading:

There are three key insights in the April spending report. 

• First, the housing market continues to weaken rapidly, down 6.7% more. The recent stabilization of home sales will not stop the spending slide for a few more months. 
  

• Second, the manufacturing and power markets continue to expand with each now nearly as large as single family housing. This is momentum from the 2003-07 business expansion which will not last much longer.
  

• Third, commercial real estate is more distressed than reported earlier with downward revisions for both office and retail construction spending.

02 Jun, 2009

Because people -- media people, stock market professionals, those who have elected to become heavily invested again, the White House (I guess) -- so awfully NEED to see green shoots, the Construction Spending report for April was spun as positive.

EXAMPLE -- Headline from Bloomberg.com: "Construction Spending in the U.S. Unexpectedly Climbs."

When I saw that, I said to myself "no it didn't!!!!!!!" But here's the story:

"The 0.8% gain (in April) wasthe biggest since August and followed a revised 0.4% increase the prior month [March]."


I don't know. The same idea permeated a lot of the reporting (and apparently led to a stock-market uptick on 6/1). Example: Christian Science Monitor blog: "US construction spending rises, raising eyebrows."

I do know that some sources got it right ("Construction Spending Sinks," read the headline in the Portland Business Journal - as in Ore.).

02 Jun, 2009

Let's take a look at yesterday's Construction Put-In-Place ("construction spending") report from the Census Bureau:

1. As noted here before, I cut straight to Table 2, the value NOT Seasonally Adjusted.

2. For total construction in the year's first 4 months, it's $286.3B, down 11.3%. That's right, DOWN 11.3%.

3. Private construction for the first 4 months = down 16.4%.

4. Private residential construction for 4 months, down 34.3%.

5. Private nonresidential construction is flat (0.0% change). It was $125,012,000,000 in the year to April 2009, $125,018,000,000 in the first 4 months of 2008. Flat. That's almost the same (but not quite) as the report last month, in which nonresidential was UP 0.2%.

6. Public construction was up 3.4% in the year's first 4 months.

Those are the facts. In the next item, we'll deal with the baloney.

01 Jun, 2009

Where the Railroad folks emit data weekly on railcar loadings, the American Transportation Associations (that's the proper name) comes out with Truck Tonnage data on a monthly basis. Here's the most recent press release, out late last week, on April. The headline stuff (I've taken the liberty of BOLDING key info) --


So . . . where, exactly, are the "green shoots?"

01 Jun, 2009

A company called Coulomb Technologies is in the business of producing electric charging stations for EVs. I stumbled across them in testimony from Richard Lowenthal, CEO of the company, before a Senate committee. Here's a piece of it:


Find the company here.

[If you're like me, the name "Coulomb" rings some sort of bell. I went to Wikipedia -- here's a profile of the man and here's a read-out on the unit of electrical measurement!

01 Jun, 2009

. . . that's what's coming in Britain, which is obviously a lot more ambitious than the U.S. (according to a New York Times report). 

01 Jun, 2009

Church's Chicken is going MODULAR. The company built out a new store prototype using pieces prefabricated off-site. Savings: 20% to 30%.

01 Jun, 2009

The stock market is UP. "Green shoots" reportedly have been seen. Yet realists see a lot more misery en route.

Among the pessimists are the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (of the Federal Reserve Board). A 5/20 Wall Street Journal blog reported on the latest projections from the committee, which now expects "a worse 2009 and 2010 than they forecast in January."


These numbers mean nothing, of course, as virtually every single economist has been WRONG WRONG WRONG in recent years (so it wouldn't be surprising if these people were wrong now, too, and were wrong in January). The key here is that the group that is running the economy (it's the Fed you know, NOT Obama!) sees things through a darker glass than it did just 4+ months ago.

01 Jun, 2009

Here's an interesting (long, so I broke it up) paragraph on the ROI of the Smart Grid, embedded in a report on a utility industry meeting:

01 Jun, 2009

Daily Home Renovation has 241 energy conservation tips. According to the sponsors, 100+ "cost absolutely nothing to do" and another 75+ "cost next to nothing."