The obvious result is that the company saves 75% on the cost of powering those phones during the down hours, and the more power-hungry the phones, the more the savings.
30 Aug, 2008
LED Downlights -- Factolito
In terms of our LED lighting solution products, more than 100,000 LR6
downlights have been sold since the product was released a year ago,
and this was for a lighting product category that didn’t exist prior to
the LR6. This product has won numerous awards and established a new
standard in LED downlights.
30 Aug, 2008
IES On The Market
Third quarter revenues for commercial work increased 11% to
approximately $426 million at a gross margin of 13.8%. This group was
affected by the reduced demand for light construction projects such as
restaurants, movie theaters and local shopping centers which is
correlated to the slowdown in the housing sector.
We have also experienced increased competition for low end retail work from residential contractors who have been impacted by the housing slowdown. Helping to offset the decline in this group were several significant institutional projects such as university buildings, data centers and health care facilities. Year-to-date revenues for our commercial group were $347 million compared to $340 million in the same period of 2007, an increase of 2%.
Our commercial groups’ gross margin percentage declined to 13.8% in the third quarter from 15.7% a year ago, principally the result of competitive pressures and market conditions. Also one of our business units has recently completed several underperforming legacy projects and another one continues to out flow our margins legacy projects. Year-to-date gross margin in our commercial group was 14.3% compared to 15.5% in the same period last year.
EleBlog note: If you read the transcript in full, or look at the IES Q3 statement, you'll find that there IS a decline in the company's residential operations (in terms of volume), but that gross margins on that end are actually going up.EleBlog take: I've heard the same thing (resi contractors migrating into low-end commercial work and screwing up margins for the established commercial contracdtors) as noted above from a major electrical contractor in the Washington DC metro area, within the past two weeks.
See the IES transcript here.
30 Aug, 2008
EMCOR On Renewables
We have been interested in
electrical transmission and distribution for some years. In fact it
must be five years or six years now that we looked at a book that was
quite bullish about the development prospects for that market. But this
is to me one of those markets that keeps receding. The more you advance
toward it, the further away it gets. And even current expectations for
expansions in that market seem to me to be fairly modest because they
are impaired by mundane problems such as permitting, [wimbi] issues and
alike.
As you mentioned, we have limited construction capabilities both in Canada and in the Northeast for participation in this area. But I think it’s unlikely that we will take the necessary significant capital expenditures to get further into this market, frankly because our other businesses are so good.
I will say, however, that we have been involved in some very interesting renewables projects involving landfill gases in particular, installation of photovoltaic cells on a large-scale. We were talking about, I don’t know if we ever performed that fuel cell pilot project for [LIPO] that they were talking about for Long Island; maybe not. But in general we’re interested in a broad range of renewable energy projects and have the ability to participate directly. Tony, do you want to talk about that.
But then there's this, from Tony Guzzi, president/CEO:Yes, if you look at a kind of things that we can do, we get involved with solar. Frank talked about some of the work we do with fuel cells. We use it as a solution a lot of times to put in front of customers that want to emphasize more so the green aspect instead of just the strong energy savings aspects of our projects. Biomass boilers, we’ve done some interesting landfill gas projects to usable pipeline gas.
So we are involved in all of it. When you get to wind, we have been on a few wind projects. But it’s an interesting market in that it’s really a couple of things. One is the OEMs are heavily involved. A lot of the value is in the turbine. The second part of the job is it’s a big civil job for all intents and purposes. Transmission is the other piece that comes into play. There are a couple of places we would do that work.
But so far we don’t look at it as a significant construction opportunity per say for our electrical content or even our mechanical content although we do participate in several. But on long-term we are starting to think about what might be the maintenance requirements on those wind farms and how we may participate there.
EleBlog take:
a. I'm not interested in criticizing Frank MacInnis. He's done an amazing job at the helm of EMCOR Group. I've already come to the conclusion that he's a lot smarter about this stuff than I am (and, perhaps, smarter than anyone else in the EC business).
b. There is an implicit deflation here of the electrical contractor's role in wind turbine construction (see 2nd paragraph of Guzzi's comments).
c. I find interesting the idea that EMCOR is looking at the future opportunities in wind farm maintenance.
See EMCOR's Q2 conference call here.
29 Aug, 2008
Reed Data's Take On Construction
One month earlier, as reported here on The EleBlog, Reed had the total down 17.7%.
So McGraw-Hill saw a 2% shift to the positive in July, and Reed saw . . . no such a thing.
29 Aug, 2008
Green Program Shut Down
I went looking for the Herald piece, but it's no longer online.
The regulators shut the program down. From Jathan Skop, a member of the Public Service Commission: The FPL performance was "just appalling . . . it was clearly mismanaged from the inception."
Yep.
29 Aug, 2008
Construction Starts - July
If you've seen this before here on The Eleblog, you will know that I ignore all of the month-to-month baloney and go to the bottom table on the report, which provides "month-to-date" UNadjusted data.
The unadjusted construction total is Down 14%. That's an improvement from June, which was Down 16%.
29 Aug, 2008
Ford On SUV Future: DIM
Q: If oil goes down, could we see a shift back to SUVs?
A: I don't think we'll ever see a shift back to where we were before. There may be a small drifting back, but I think this is relatively permanent, because a lot of it is psychology as well. It's not just what the absolute price is.
Once people have been shaken as they have been, even if gasoline comes back down to $3, people are still going to remember paying $4, and they'll be very nervous about resuming their old habits.
This is a permanent shift in the marketplace.
29 Aug, 2008
Housing - To Get Worse?
At the time -- for a contrast -- that Lindsey said the war could cost $1.7 billion, Paul Wolfowitz (one of the architects of the war) said it might cost us -- IN TOTAL -- like $1.7 billion. Wolfie also was talking to Congress!
I mention all of that to give Lindsey some credibility. Here's what he wrote -- solid data, I think -- about the housing crisis, about 2 months ago:
There are 129 million housing units in the United States, comprising owner-occupied, rented, and vacant units. Of these, 18.5 million are empty. This vacancy rate is 2.5 percentage points higher than it has been at any point in the half century the data have been tracked, translating into at least 3 million too many empty housing units in the country. This number, moreover, is rising. This is the most intractable part of the real estate bubble, for we cannot find a true bottom to home prices until this inventory of empty units starts to clear, and we cannot find a bottom to the mortgage finance market until home prices bottom out.
The worst type of inventory is an empty house, which people in the industry like to say has about the same half-life as a head of cabbage. As the former chairman of the Neighborhood Investment Corporation, I've seen the damage done to neighborhoods by vacant homes. They are never maintained adequately, depress surrounding property values, and can quickly become temporary retail space for drug lords and a playground for juvenile delinquents. They are also the homes whose owner has the least incentive, and usually the least ability, to service the mortgage or pay the property taxes. So whittling down the inventory of empty houses should be the first economic, social, financial, and political objective.
The math of the housing market is fairly clear. Each year roughly half a million homes are destroyed to make better use of the land on which they sit. Population growth also helps whittle down inventory. The household formation years--ages 25 to 34--have 39.5 million people in them forming 19 million households, a group that creates demand for 1.8 to 1.9 million units each year. On the other hand, households pass from the scene later in life, and the homes they used to live in go onto the market. There are 11.6 million households of 65- to 74-year-olds and 9 million households of 75- to 84-year-olds. Their departure increases supply by around 1.1 million units per year. On net, therefore, demographic realities add about 850,000 units to demand on top of the half-million homes that are destroyed and removed from supply.
The home building industry is in a deep recession, with additional yearly new home supply cut in half since 2006. But homebuilders are still adding nearly a million units per year. The math is simple: Build a million, tear down half a million, form 850,000 households, and the country only whittles down its excess inventory by 350,000 units per year. This is one reason to expect a further drop in new home construction, but it will still take years to get our housing inventory back to normal. The economic, social, and financial damage over that time could be staggering.
EleBlog take: The math is simple. The thinking is not hard to follow. The bottom line keeps coming out the same -- we're going to be "in" this mess for a long, long time to come.
Along these same lines, TEDMAG.com recently posted a column by yours truly -- "Recovery In 2012, Or Thereabouts."
28 Aug, 2008
Coal Facts
Here are paragraphs you might want to read, even if you'd never buy the stock of a coal company:
A new coal fuel generation is being developed in scores of nations
around the world; all of this leading to a 7% compound growth rate in
seaborne coal demand. On the supply side, major coal exporters are
straining to keep up against the sustained demand growth. All aspects
of the coal chain are under pressure and more nations than ever are
seeing the valuable resource that their coal represents, forcing coal
suppliers to keep greater amounts of coal at home.
(and later)
In summary, we are seeing record coal prices, sustained growth in coal demand and an improving competitive advantage for coal over other fuels.
(and later)
In summary, we are seeing record coal prices, sustained growth in coal demand and an improving competitive advantage for coal over other fuels.
EleBlog take: Didn't you think (from all of the "green" this, global-warming that, and alternative-energy "stuff" out there, that coal-fired electrical power generation was going down? WRONG!!!
Shifting now to Australia; as I mentioned earlier, Peabody's volumes
expanded 15% above last year and 12% year-to-date. This is well above
the overall industry, where volumes were up just 2% year-to-date.
Looking at Australia's prices, we realized $95 per short ton, versus
the mid-to-low 50s last quarter and last year. This reflects the higher
levels, we've secured for new met and thermal exports that began April
1st. We expect further improvement in price realizations going forward,
as lower priced carryover volumes were largely shipped in the second
quarter. Our cost in Australia ultimately reflected higher commodity
prices, currency movements and the remaining effects of first quarter
outlook. In total, the Australian margin exceeded $43 per ton for the
quarter.
EleBlog take: Now, every company ALWAYS puts its best foot forward. But if I read that correctly:
a. In the previous quarter, PRICES were "mid-to-low $50" per short ton.
b. In the most recent quarter, "the Australian margin exceeded $43 per ton."
c. It appears that Peabody (stock symbol BTU) is now realizing a gross profit in the most recent quarter (in Australia) that's 80% of the gross sales price of 90 days earlier.
b. In the most recent quarter, "the Australian margin exceeded $43 per ton."
c. It appears that Peabody (stock symbol BTU) is now realizing a gross profit in the most recent quarter (in Australia) that's 80% of the gross sales price of 90 days earlier.
No one (not even the Peabody people) can tell you if demand for coal will be sustained. But it seems like a good bet.
- - - - -
JUST A BIT MORE
By the way, this company sells both "thermal" coal (for generating heat in power plants) and "met" coal (metallurgical coal -- also called "coking" coal -- used in manufacture of iron and steel).
If you're interested, here are a couple of paragraphs from the conf call on "met" coal:
To begin with, the current market conditions are providing great
opportunities for seaborne coal suppliers such as Peabody. And we have
the greatest leverage of the any of the U.S-based companies with over
half of our EBITDA expected to come from our international sales
platform. In our last call, we were just settling met coal agreements
for the contract year that begins in April. I am pleased that the
settlements came in at the expected $300 per metric ton benchmark level
for the highest quality coking coal . . .
And we are seeing met coal sales right now on the spot markets that are fetching $300 plus per ton. This bodes extremely well for the next contracting season. As you'll recall, when went into '08, we had significant excellent legacy contracts that we expected to roll off in '09, which will hopefully double our unpriced position in 2009 from what we had at the beginning of 2008. This has very favorable implications for Peabody.
I don't know if Peabody is a "screaming buy." But coal sure seems to be, and this company seems to have its arms around the trend. As my investment guru, Bill Fleckenstein, says -- the difference between a great company and a great investment is The Price (at which you can buy in).I'm planning to do more thinking and watching on BTU -- and if you are looking for an energy investment that's NOT oil, so should you!
(More)
26 Aug, 2008
'CBECS Says You Are A Dummy'
26 Aug, 2008
Ugly Nonresidential Forecast
It's just as fugly.
(More)
26 Aug, 2008
Cabling Quiz
The exact meaning of “certification” and
“verification” are carefully defined in all industry standards for
structured cabling.
True or false?
True or false?
False: These terms are used by test equipment manufacturers to describe how their devices conduct tests, but the terms themselves are not used in the standards.
26 Aug, 2008
Technology For Elder Care
"The smart home will help the elderly maintain a safe, healthy, and independent life," said Harry Wang, Director, Health & Mobile Product Research (at Parks). "Although the user population will be small initially, more people will adopt these new technologies in embracing the broader emerging eldercare model that promises a high quality of service, individual dignity, and the intelligence to monitor situations and act before they become critical." Adoption and revenue growth will be even greater than forecast if the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) embraces this model, Wang emphasized.
26 Aug, 2008
Green Magazine Issue
Well, to heck with that -- there's a lot of good information in the thing. You can go here and download PDFs of various articles.
My favorite article, of all that I wrote and assigned for that issue: The "Green Primer," available in a 9-page PDF downloadable here.
18 Aug, 2008
Whitepaper On Green
DISCLAIMER: One of my "gigs" as a freelance editor is as editor/coordinator of the EDLs. There are three a year. Yes, that means I work for NECA on this project. My boss on the job is Rob Colgan, director of marketing.
18 Aug, 2008
Homes Getting Smaller
18 Aug, 2008
Iran Meeting Iraq's Power Needs
In other words, after all of the time we (the U.S.) have put in -- all the blood, sweat, tears and, of course, Money -- the Iraqis can't generate their own power.
INTERESTINGLY, I found this story on Nexis, and then went looking for it on the Internet. It was almost impossible to find. Apparently, the Western news sources ignored it or didn't catch on. Here's a link to the one place I found the piece -- and below find an excerpt:
. . the situation has been improving over the past four months -– with
Iran's assistance. The Bush administration and western companies like
Bechtel have failed to deliver on promises to improve infrastructure.
"Now, the province gets power from Iran under a contract signed about two years ago between the Iraqi government and Iran," Naseer Milmy, an employee with the directorate-general of electricity told IPS.
Electricity cuts are now programed; houses get two, sometimes four hours at given times. This is considered remarkable progress even if the voltage of supplied electricity is often lower than the required 220-240.
"This problem should be tackled by the Iranian side," said an engineer at the directorate-general of electricity, speaking on condition of anonymity. "It is supposed to build voltage regulators each 100 kilometers from the border to the province to avoid loss in the power."
The Iranians are working on it. "There is another line of power from Iran which is being worked on and should be finished within a month," Diyala's directorate-general of electricity said in a statement. "This will have a great effect on the improvement of the voltage and increasing the hours given."
EleBlog take: Let's put it all together, shall we?
a. The hook-ups of electricity arranged by contractors for the U.S. Defense Dept. resulted in the electrocution deaths of some 12 or more U.S. soldiers
b. Additionally, we've been "on the ground" in Iraq since April 2003, and we've not been able to provide reliable power to the Iraqis. According to stuff I've read previously, some of them (especially the Sunnis!) had it when Saddam was the boss -- power for 10-12 hours a day. Now, as noted above, "houses get two, sometimes four hours" . . . at reduced voltage.
And the bulk power is being imported from Iran.
THIS IS NOT GOOD. There are a lot of conclusions one might draw here (i.e., the U.S. is incompetent) and problems to come from the arrangements noted in the article linked above (Iraqis reliant upon Iran for supply of reliable power).
Think about it.
18 Aug, 2008
GE, Appliances - Past & Future
It's about how GE turned its appliance business from a "cow" into a "dog." I heartily agree. Here's a piece of Hutchinson's rant:
When examined dispassionately in the light of posterity, it appears
that far too many of these “cow” businesses were manufacturing
operations which were milked for cash flow that was diverted into more
fashionable businesses in the service sector, particularly in finance.
Westinghouse, for example, one of the most important names in electric
equipment until 1980, had split up and left manufacturing altogether by
2000. To be fair Westinghouse management had a good excuse; one of
their leading and most successful businesses had been the construction
of nuclear reactors, an activity that disappeared in the 1980s owing to
political cowardice in the face of environmentalist harassment.
General Electric, however from 1981 to 2001 run by ultra-fashionable “Neutron Jack” Welch, epitomized the failings of the era. It under-invested in many of its manufacturing businesses, entered into a blizzard of divestitures designed to boost its short term earnings, played games with its pension accruals and built a gigantic financial services empire of low quality businesses in which it could never be a leader. It also ruthlessly eliminated its middle management and overpaid its top management, winners in the corporate office political game. GE was a much admired operation in Welch’s later years; it is less so now, and if the bloated global financial services business returns to a historically normal size may finally be seen to have been a disaster.
General Electric, however from 1981 to 2001 run by ultra-fashionable “Neutron Jack” Welch, epitomized the failings of the era. It under-invested in many of its manufacturing businesses, entered into a blizzard of divestitures designed to boost its short term earnings, played games with its pension accruals and built a gigantic financial services empire of low quality businesses in which it could never be a leader. It also ruthlessly eliminated its middle management and overpaid its top management, winners in the corporate office political game. GE was a much admired operation in Welch’s later years; it is less so now, and if the bloated global financial services business returns to a historically normal size may finally be seen to have been a disaster.
EleBlog take: For a long time now, I have tried to imagine why people "admire" Jack Welch. I've been unable to come up with what they saw (or see now) in the guy. The recent incident (not very long ago, anyway) in which he turned on his successor on CNBC, the financial cable TV station, was revealing, I think.
Welch's "innovations" at the helm of GE included:
a. Transforming the company into a financial giant -- a bank.
b. At the same time, mesmerizing Wall Street. Yes, that's an accomplishment. It's like waving a shiny spoon in the eyes of a 4-month old. Somehow, while the P/E ratios for most financial companies ran at about 11 (before the recent destruction of that sector), GE's was running up at 17.
c. Also, "Neutron Jack" earned that name -- the factories were left in place, the people were . . . made to disappear.
d. Finally, there was the thing Welch did in ranking the company's managers and pressuring (or sacking) the bottom 10%. I always thought that was a gimmick -- and stupid. The bottom 10% in a given operation might be bad or good.
b. At the same time, mesmerizing Wall Street. Yes, that's an accomplishment. It's like waving a shiny spoon in the eyes of a 4-month old. Somehow, while the P/E ratios for most financial companies ran at about 11 (before the recent destruction of that sector), GE's was running up at 17.
c. Also, "Neutron Jack" earned that name -- the factories were left in place, the people were . . . made to disappear.
d. Finally, there was the thing Welch did in ranking the company's managers and pressuring (or sacking) the bottom 10%. I always thought that was a gimmick -- and stupid. The bottom 10% in a given operation might be bad or good.
There's nothing to admire in Welch. Not in what he did, not in what he "built," and not in who he is. If you want to credit him with something, see (b) above -- waving a shiny spoon at a 4-month-old (maybe Jack Welch kissed the blarney stone?).
18 Aug, 2008
Recent Housing 'Data Points'
• 24% of Homes sold in the past year were sold at a loss;
• 29% of Homes purchased in the past five years are “upside down” -- i.e., have negative net equity;
• Median home values are down a record 10% over the past year; this is the largest year-over-year decline since 1996.
• Foreclosed homes account for 50% of all home sales in some markets;
• 90% of US Homes had positive annualized appreciation over the past five years;
• Home values are now deflating in 85% of the country;
• Q2 is the sixth consecutive quarter of home value declines;
• Almost 15% of housing sales are now foreclosed transactions;
• Over the past 5 and 10 years, the nation has shown positive rates of appreciation of 4.4% and 6.5% respectively.
15 Aug, 2008
A Loony Prediction On OIL
a. The Olympics ends 8/24.
b. On 8/25, or thereabouts, the dictators in Beijing are likely to stop the policy of alternate-day driving in and around that very populous city. Everybody back in their cars!
c. Factories that were shut down 3 weeks before the Olympics began (which takes us back to late July) will resume operation.
d. In other words: The Chinese Communists, who are VERY good at suppressing things, will stop the suppression of energy consumption that they undertook to clean up the air in and around the Olympics venues.
e. Lo and behold, by October 1st -- even if there are NO HURRICANES between now and then -- the price of crude oil on the spot market will resume its rise, and be back up to at least $130/bbl.
Should there be destructive hurricanes, or just significant weather events that lead petroleum producers to "shut in" some of their production and/or refining capacity, the price probably will set a new record by Halloween.
NOW -- that's a truly loony prediction, isn't it?
= = = = =
I laid this scenario out for someone recently, and he scoffed. Beijing doesn't use enough oil, he told me, to make a difference.
WRONG.
Let's think about how real-world markets FOR REAL THINGS are made. There are buyers and sellers (yes, and some of the participants are speculators). But at the end of the day, someone has to take delivery of the commodity -- or take action on the market to avoid having to take delivery.
Taking delivery of the commodity is a potent action. It's much more potent than whatever nonsense the speculators might or might not be up to. WHY? Because taking delivery of, say, a tankerload of crude oil REMOVES THAT MUCH STUFF from the market.
Additionally, while the world consumes 84-85 million barrels per day of crude oil, and the price of many 10s of millions might or might not be TIED (directly or indirectly) to the spot-market crude oil price in some way, most of the oil produced, bought-and-sold, and used in this world is NOT on the spot market.
NOTE THIS: The spot market itself is determined by transactions involving a (relatively) small volume of REAL crude oil.
A small volume. A volume so small that something like the successful suppression of demand by the leading demand-grower in the world (China) since, say, July 15-20 has had an impact.
NO, it hasn't had an impact on global consumption of 84 million barrels each day.
BUT IT HAS had an impact on the price of the REAL barrels bought-and-sold on the spot market.
= = = = =
You don't have to accept this analysis. You don't have to go out and buy back your short-oil-futures positions. You can just sit and wait.
Today is Aug. 15. Oil's spot market price finished today's trading at $113.79 per barrel (according to www.kitco.com, which I use as an all-purpose market price monitor).
By Oct. 1, if I am correct, oil should be around $130/bbl.
15 Aug, 2008
River Report
Housing Collapse Ahead? Not According to the Data
Only four states — Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada — have had declines of more than 4% in home prices over the past year, according to the house price index of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Some worry that OFHEO's index may be missing the full extent of the crisis because it doesn't include very high-priced homes with "jumbo" mortgages or homes bought with subprime loans — the ones being hit hardest. While one could argue that the index would be more representative if it included these transactions, the properties it does include represent more than three-quarters of U.S. homes.
Only four states — Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada — have had declines of more than 4% in home prices over the past year, according to the house price index of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Some worry that OFHEO's index may be missing the full extent of the crisis because it doesn't include very high-priced homes with "jumbo" mortgages or homes bought with subprime loans — the ones being hit hardest. While one could argue that the index would be more representative if it included these transactions, the properties it does include represent more than three-quarters of U.S. homes.
EleBlog take: Obviously, everyone -- and I mean E-V-E-R-Y-O-N-E -- out in the world is fantasizing, hallucinating, misinformed, etc. There is a conspiracy to distribute bad news about house prices. We should round up twice the number of usual suspects . . . and shoot them!
Sales of new and existing homes continued to lose ground in June and house prices continued to fall in many areas of the country. The inventory of homes on the market remained quite high at mid-year, particularly on a months’ supply basis, and the supplies of vacant units for-sale and for-rent remained close to record levels.
Faced with daunting imbalances between housing demand and supply, builders continued to cut housing starts and issuance of building permits in June, particularly in the single-family sector. Furthermore, NAHB’s single-family Housing Market Index hit a record low in July as builders’ assessments of current sales, buyer traffic and future sales all continued to decline.
EleBlog take: This one was written by David Seiders, chief economist of NAHB. I honestly don't think he wrote the headline, as -- you can see from what I've excerpted above -- there is a quite reasonable tinge of reality in his words.
. . . incidentally, Dave says (in this column written before mid-August 2008) that the Fed will leave interest rates at 2% until Q2 2009.
(a) My strong suspicion is that there won't be a pick-up (in housing, employment, or the general economy) by June 2009. Therefore, I find it extremely unlikely that the Fed will be RAISING interesting rates in 2009 at all . . . maybe not at all in 2010, either.
(b) If the Fed DOES leave interest rates alone for another 10 months (or more), it's reasonable to expect inflation to continue to bump up. Forget the much-ballyhooed mid-summer drop in commodities prices, at least for now; these prices can bounce up -- as fast or faster than they dropped . . . and to higher levels.
13 Aug, 2008
Profile Reprint - ECMAG
However, if you DO NOT receive the publication, you probably should go over here, to the research page on ECMAG. The first link on that page will bring you a PDF of the Profile of the Electrical Contractor story (with oodles of valuable data) that printed in a recent issue of E.C. magazine.
I didn't have anything to do with this Profile. But I worked on previous versions of this every-two-years statistical report on the industry -- in 1980, 82, 90, 92, 94, 96, and 98.
EleBlog take: This is MORE than worth your time -- the best free data on electrical contracting found anywhere.
13 Aug, 2008
Lighing + Human Systems
My reading has nothing to do with my professional interest in the electrical industry and lighting itself. It has more to do with the fact that I am a diabetic. One of the things you can read in books for diabetes is that SLEEP is important, and that the advent of big numbers of humans with diabetes has something to do with Edison's invention of the light bulb.
Well, here's more, but not about diabetes. It's from a release on "circadian math" from the Lighting Research Center, and it offers some hope to those who would like to get the 7, 8, or 9 hours of sleep a night that artificial lighting is (apparently) playing a key role in denying them:
Like a wristwatch that needs to be wound daily for accurate
time-telling, the human circadian system — the biological
cycles that repeat approximately every 24 hours — requires
daily light exposure to the eye’s retina to remain synchronized
with the solar day. In a new study published in the June issue
of Neuroscience Letters, researchers have demonstrated
that when it comes to the circadian system, not all light
exposure is created equal . . .
Short-wavelength light, including natural light from the blue sky, is highly effective at stimulating the circadian system. Exposure to other wavelengths — and thus colors — of light may necessitate longer exposure times or require higher exposure levels to be as effective at “winding the watch.”
In some instances, exposure to multiple wavelengths (colors)
of light simultaneously can result in less total stimulation to
the circadian system than would result if either color were
viewed separately, a phenomenon known as “spectral opponency.”
The LRC scientists have shown that the circadian system shares
neurons in the retina — which exhibit spectral opponency and
form the foundation for our perception of color — with the
visual system. Thus, in principle, the circadian system may be
able to distinguish between lights of different
colors.
13 Aug, 2008
NYC Building Costs - UP
The cost of construction in the Big Apple has risen faster than the city's skyline - 32 percent in just three years, due to the high price of local labor, tighter supplies of materials and the added expense of building in a congested city, a new study found.
Building an office tower in New York is more than twice as expensive as in Chicago and almost three times more than in Atlanta, according to a report released yesterday by the New York Building Congress and New York Building Foundation.
The rate of increase is also escalating. In 2004, costs increased between 5 and 6 percent. By 2006, the increase was 12 percent for the year - a rate that is expected to continue over the next two to three years.
12 Aug, 2008
Aged Wiring In Older Homes
12 Aug, 2008
Remodeling Activity To Improve?
EleBlog Take: NOPE. This is exactly the kind of crap we kept hearing last year and early in 2008 about the recovery "coming" in the housing market overall. The info needed to debunk the headline on this item is in its concluding paragraph, with the "him" referenced here being economist Kermit Baker:
Home price increases and declines also help him create remodeling
forecasts. Declining home values, for instance, offer "less incentive
for homeowners to undertake home improvement projects," Baker said.
"They're getting less return on their investment," so a lot of
households wait for prices to hit bottom before undertaking some of the
larger projects.
In other words: When house prices stop falling, THEN, maybe, remodeling will pick up.
Well -- the obvious question is: WHEN will house prices stop falling? Let's go to some thoughts from Bill Fleckenstein, who posted them where I can link to them -- this being the relevant portion:
As for the potential of the Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) "bailout" bill to actually solve our housing problem, I thought I'd pass along a few nuggets from Joel Locker of FBN Securities:
Even though folks are focused on foreclosure rates, rental vacancies
are just as material. As of the end of the second quarter, vacant
rental units stood at 10% (about 3.94 million units), up from the
43-year average of 7.16%.
That 2.84-percentage-point difference equates to about 1.12 million excess rental units above the historic mean, which prompts Locker to ask: "Why keep people in houses they can barely afford without government (taxpayer) assistance when rental units desperately need occupancy?"
He also points out that the overall housing vacancy rate climbed to
14.36% against a 43-year average high of 10.75%. (There are roughly 130
million total units, with 18.6 million vacant.) In order to get back to
the 10.75% mean, the U.S. would have to create about 4.7 million
households. To achieve equilibrium, we would need to create about 6.6
million jobs (assuming 1.4 jobs as creating a household) and not build
one additional housing unit.
Those are a few macro numbers to chew on every time some uninformed source declares today to be the end of our troubles. When we finally get to the end of the troubles, many of these big numbers will have been worked through, and the psychology will be much different than it is today. I'm not saying that I'll know when that is exactly, but I'm very confident in saying we're nowhere close yet.
You'll note that Bill isn't saying WHEN. But it's pretty clear the recovery -- in new housing construction, the sales prices of existing houses, and remodeling -- isn't happening any time in the next few YEARS.12 Aug, 2008
US Oil Imports - From Where
| Tables 1: United States Monthly Crude Oil Imports From the Top Six Countries of Origin | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Saudi Arabia | Mexico | Venezuela | Nigeria | Iraq | |||||||
| MM bbl/d | % | MM bbl/d | % | MM bbl/d | % | MM bbl/d | % | MM bbl/d | % | MM bbl/d | % | |
| (a) | (b) | (c) | (d) | (e) | (f) | (g) | (h) | (i) | (j) | (k) | (l) | |
| Jan | 1.96 | 19.5 | 1.48 | 14.7 | 1.20 | 12.0 | 1.12 | 11.1 | 1.16 | 11.6 | 0.54 | 5.4 |
| Feb | 1.94 | 20.2 | 1.60 | 16.6 | 1.23 | 12.8 | 0.96 | 9.8 | 0.98 | 10.2 | 0.78 | 8.1 |
| Mar | 1.79 | 18.6 | 1.54 | 16.0 | 1.22 | 12.8 | 0.86 | 8.9 | 1.15 | 12.0 | 0.77 | 8.0 |
| Apr | 1.95 | 19.7 | 1.45 | 14.6 | 1.26 | 12.7 | 1.02 | 10.3 | 1.12 | 11.2 | 0.68 | 6.8 |
| May | 1.83 | 18.9 | 1.58 | 16.4 | 1.12 | 11.6 | 1.03 | 10.7 | 0.85 | 8.8 | 0.58 | 6.0 |
| Jan- May | 1.89 | 19.4 | 1.53 | 15.6 | 1.21 | 12.4 | 0.99 | 10.2 | 1.05 | 10.8 | 0.67 | 6.9 |
12 Aug, 2008
Lightning Safety
12 Aug, 2008
More PHEVs In The News
Recent stuff:
6/18 DOE Newsletter -- "DOE to Award $30M for PHEV Demos"
7/23 GreenBiz.com item -- "PHEVs in the Spotlight"
12 Aug, 2008
Natural Gas For Your Car
I'm thinking -- an end to stopping at filling stations. Sure, you'll pay (for the natural gas) . . . but via your monthly bill. I know there has to be a drawback in here somewhere, but it sure (on its face) sounds pretty good!!!
Based on what I've seen of this (and keep in mind, I've NOT used it) -- I'm not sure what's preventing contractors from having fleets of natural gas-fueled vehicles . . .
12 Aug, 2008
Positive On Climate Change
09 Aug, 2008
Commodity Prices - 5 Columns
July 9 -- oil & electrical products.
July 16 -- commodities (in general)
July 24 -- are commodities a bubble?
July 31 -- what is copper's price telling us?
Aug 7 -- more thoughts about energy
July 16 -- commodities (in general)
July 24 -- are commodities a bubble?
July 31 -- what is copper's price telling us?
Aug 7 -- more thoughts about energy
09 Aug, 2008
Green Editorial
Both personally and professionally you have countless opportunities to support our . . . objectives, as well as your own goals.
We want [our] Green goals to be driven by our people and for the right reasons. Making our environment better is not a marketing scheme or some sort of façade. We are doing this because we truly feel we can make a difference.
Please take a moment to reflect on your role and what a difference you can make, then set some simple goals for yourself and your family. Your contributions will make an impact on our environment and certainly the environment of our children and grandchildren.
We want [our] Green goals to be driven by our people and for the right reasons. Making our environment better is not a marketing scheme or some sort of façade. We are doing this because we truly feel we can make a difference.
Please take a moment to reflect on your role and what a difference you can make, then set some simple goals for yourself and your family. Your contributions will make an impact on our environment and certainly the environment of our children and grandchildren.
Is that some kind of crazy greenie's idea of "the right thing?" No. The writer was Larry Beltramo, executive vice president of Rosendin Electric -- 4th largest electrical contractor in the U.S. (by sales) in 2007.
Read the rest of the Rosendin 5-page green newsletter (a PDF) by clicking here.
09 Aug, 2008
Alternative To 'Drill Drill Drill'
I'm not the only one. Browsing the DOE website the other day, I found a 6/5/08 speech by an assistant Energy secretary. Here's a single, long paragraph of the speech, broken up (by me) -- but this is the whole paragraph, nothing is missing:
One of the reports that was written was called The National Petroleum Council's Report: The Hard Truths about Energy.
I like to quote this one. It's one of my favorites because the
Petroleum Council has been around for a long time, and this one was
chaired by none other than Lee Raymond.
And Lee Raymond chairing this report at the Petroleum Council had different conclusions for the first time because these reports of being chronically very similar: you drill more, you get more energy, supply catches up with demand, and everything's okay.
This is the first time National Petroleum Council said something completely different.
That the risks have never been greater to conventional energy production
And Lee Raymond chairing this report at the Petroleum Council had different conclusions for the first time because these reports of being chronically very similar: you drill more, you get more energy, supply catches up with demand, and everything's okay.
This is the first time National Petroleum Council said something completely different.
That the risks have never been greater to conventional energy production
and those risks are
escalating and will continue to escalate,
that we have an obligation to maximize every molecule of energy from every source including renewable and alternative sources,
that we need a carbon policy predictability to offer price signals in the market place for acceleration, and
that we had to focus on efficiency as a resource that could be quantified and prioritized and realized across the board.
that we have an obligation to maximize every molecule of energy from every source including renewable and alternative sources,
that we need a carbon policy predictability to offer price signals in the market place for acceleration, and
that we had to focus on efficiency as a resource that could be quantified and prioritized and realized across the board.
EleBlog take: Lee Raymond is the closet thing we all can see in 2008 if we want to view a dinosaur. And yet event with that major moron as its chairman, the NPC came up with the conclusions described above. REMEMBER, the guy who made the speech above (click thru to read the rest of it -- you can see the video of the speech if you don't feel like reading).
"Drill-drill-drill" is a VERY short-term solution to the energy problem -- something like treating a gunshot wound to the heat by sticking Kleenex up a nostril to stem a resulting nose bleed.
09 Aug, 2008
Investing: Think About This
"Figures from John Bogle of Vanguard . . . neatly illustrate the point. Over the 25 years from 1980 to 2005, the S&P 500 index returned an average of 12.3% a year.
"Over the same period, the average equity mutual fund returned 10% and the average mutual-fund investor (thanks to his regrettable tendency to buy the hottest funds at the top of the market) earned just 7.3%, five percentage points below the index."
Now, a 7.3% annual return over a 25-year period is FAR from pathetic! BUT: It seems that the average guy/gal/family underperformed his/her/their own investments, basically, thanks to:
a. The lack of return from mutual funds (note the 2.3%/year underperformance)
and
b. Rotten timing.
and
b. Rotten timing.
This is why people tout "buy and hold" as an investing strategy (as well as diversification). I happen to think they are, BOTH OF THEM, lousy rotten ways to manage money. But if you can't become actively involved in managing your money -- and doing it well -- "buy and hold" is the best of all possible worlds.
09 Aug, 2008
Smart Home Website
15 great ideas for smart home security
Distributors offer a varied menu
Distributors offer a varied menu
. . . and more, including the opportunity to subscribe to several weekly e-mail newsletters.
09 Aug, 2008
Energy Solutions Summit
Here's the net-net, if you don't want to click on that green link and read the official story:
The recommendations generated by summit participants will be used to
develop a strategic plan and prioritize what resources will best help
NECA members respond to the evolving needs and technology of the green
construction market.
09 Aug, 2008
Housing Still Hasn't Bottomed
I'm not adding. I am pointing out that an eminent construction economist, Jim Haughey of Reed, has something you should know. Here's the gist:
"How long will it take to eliminate the surplus of vacant homes?" he asks.
ANSWER: It is
" . . . a one or two year process but it does not begin until a little after
the end of job losses in the economy."
That's bad enough news as it is, but there's more:
"It may be an unusually long
process this time because of increasing evidence that lots of illegal
immigrants have left the country. Some illegal workers always leave in
tough economic times. But in the last year the economic self-deporters
have been joined by more people formally deported and by people who
left voluntarily when they lost hope of gaining legal status."
All of this (and more) appears beneath the heading,
Immigrant departures contribute to one million extra vacant homes for sale
03 Aug, 2008
China's Oil Consumption
Oil futures markets don't have contracts out to 2025. Traders don't trade on what might happen, maybe, in 10 years. My friend's argument was ridiculous.
Why then, he asked, have oil prices fallen? It was, I answered, what was happening in China. In preparation for the Olympics, the Chinese have been trying to get the pollution in Beijing (and elsewhere) to go away . . . by closing factories and cutting driving in half.
That, my friend said, was ridiculous. The Chinese don't use that much oil.
Well, he was wrong (I think). Two points:
1 -- Oil prices are set at the margins. The entirety of world oil consumption (some 84-85 million barrels of oil per day) isn't repriced every single morning. Most of it is under contract. A small amount is bought/sold on the spot market. So small changes in consumption affect the spot market.
If I'm right about this, we'll see a few weeks after the Olympics. If I'm right, one would predict that prices would bounce back up to the $140s, right?
2 -- I found a Washington Post article (7/28) about China's Cars. It didn't address my dispute with my friend, but it contained the following facts:
China alone accounts for about 40 percent of the world's recent
increase in demand for oil, burning through twice as much now as it did
a decade ago. Fifteen years ago, there were almost no private cars in
the country. By the end of last year, the number had reached 15.2
million.
If China continues to increase its use of oil at the average pace of 6 to 7 percent a year, as it has since 1990, it will consume as much as the United States in more than 20 years.
. . . less than 4 percent of the country's 1.3 billion people have already bought one. That's where the United States was in 1915. "The entire energy market of the world is being affected by this country already. Can you imagine when we get to 50 people out of every 1,000 in China owning cars?" asked Friedhelm Engler, design director for General Motors and Shanghai Automotive Industry's joint-venture engineering and design lab in China.
If China continues to increase its use of oil at the average pace of 6 to 7 percent a year, as it has since 1990, it will consume as much as the United States in more than 20 years.
. . . less than 4 percent of the country's 1.3 billion people have already bought one. That's where the United States was in 1915. "The entire energy market of the world is being affected by this country already. Can you imagine when we get to 50 people out of every 1,000 in China owning cars?" asked Friedhelm Engler, design director for General Motors and Shanghai Automotive Industry's joint-venture engineering and design lab in China.
Zhai Yongping, an energy specialist with the Asian Development Bank, fears the Chinese are buying into the American lifestyle: "big houses, big air conditioning, big roads." Compared with the breakneck pace of road construction, public transit has developed slowly. To encourage the Chinese to go green, General Motors, which has ranked first for passenger car sales in China in each of the past three years, is preparing to market hybrid vehicles or cars that run on alternative fuels. But Zhang doesn't expect Chinese consumers to change their car-buying habits. "Fuel economy is probably the last thing Chinese look for," Zhang said as he drove around the Shanghai suburbs in his Hummer. He said he wasn't worried about filling up the tank even after the government trimmed oil subsidies last month, raising gas prices about 18 percent.
These quotes won't necessarily lead you to conclude that I was correct on my side of the argument (besides, TIME will tell -- the Olympics will come to an end, Beijing will go back to where it was in terms of energy consumption, and we'll see where oil prices are in mid-October).However, these quotes from the Post piece should give all of us a good idea of where oil consumption is heading. It's heading to China, and what happens in the U.S. -- marginal decreases in consumption due to reduced driving by some of our citizens in summer -- just isn't going to matter, in the short run OR the long run!
03 Aug, 2008
Top 5 Energy Savers (For Biz)
- Use night setback thermometers
- Correct power factor problems
- Install modern, high efficiency heating and cooling equipment
- Replace metal halide fixtures with energy efficient fluorescent lighting
- Turn off lights and computers at night
03 Aug, 2008
Power Mgmt: Turn It Off!!!
He sketched out a scenario for a 200-person office that operates 9-5, Monday through Friday:
03 Aug, 2008
PoE Challenge for ECs
The major impact is going to be where if a customer does
choose to upgrade to a network camera that is POE or POE high power,
then both the electrical contractor and end user are going to enjoy the
benefit of ease of installation and lower costs respectively of
deploying a compatible camera. Keep in mind that the new standard is
going to be backward compatible with the older standard. So that’s not
going to be an issue.
But it is going to be a challenge for electrical contractors to learn the difference between standard space power sources, deployment of network infrastructure, which they should begin to understand now anyway, but also probably with the higher power systems, they will have to understand how temperature affects cabling and the current handling capacity could be decreased in higher temperature environments.
But it is going to be a challenge for electrical contractors to learn the difference between standard space power sources, deployment of network infrastructure, which they should begin to understand now anyway, but also probably with the higher power systems, they will have to understand how temperature affects cabling and the current handling capacity could be decreased in higher temperature environments.
01 Aug, 2008
Charging For Liquid
Here's a blog entry from The Wall Street Journal (the blog is called "The Middle Seat Terminal" -- it's about travel). I read this 8/1 entry once earlier today . . .and found it Astounding. Then I just went to the blog again to copy it and post it here -- and found the little addition at the very end, which adds some juice.
- - - - - - - - -
Journal reporter Stephanie Chen on changes coming to US Air’s domestic flights today.
Charging for checked luggage and legroom isn’t enough for some carriers — starting today, coach passengers flying aboard US Airways Inc. must pay for a drink of water.
This morning, US Airways began charging fliers $2 for bottled water and sodas and $1 for teas and coffees. First class members, trans-Atlantic passengers and a select group of others are exempt from the extra fees.
“This is another clever way to masquerade airfare increases without increasing airfares,” says Randy Petersen, editor of Inside Flyer Magazine. “Everything has been passed along to the consumer.”
The Tempe, Ariz.-based airline is among many other carriers scrambling to cut costs and boost revenues amid skyrocketing fuel prices. For now, other major airlines including AMR Corp.’s American Airlines, Delta Air Lines Inc., and Northwest Airlines Corp. say they won’t resort to the a la carte beverage system yet but will continue researching all possible ways to save money. Discount carriers AirTran Holdings Inc., JetBlue Airways Corp. and Southwest Airlines Co say they will also continue serving complimentary beverages.
Continental Airlines Inc. — one of the few airlines left that serves free meals on certain domestic flights — says it is unlikely to abandon its free beverage service. Continental says charging for a soda would detract from passenger comfort. “That’s always been our philosophy, and it’s one that works well with us,” says spokeswoman Julie King.
Several other low-cost carriers like Spirit Airlines Inc and Allegiant Air, LLC began charging for beverages a few years ago. These low-budget airlines say their business model offers “unbundled” deals, which strip away extra costs and charge only for the flight. Spirit and Allegiant officials say customers like this plan, which allows flyers to add on extra drinks and snacks only if they desire.
US Airways says it will provide water and drinks for passengers in cases of medical emergency and during extensive delays. If a desperately thirsty passenger does forget a few extra dollars, US Airways spokesman Morgan Durrant says flight attendants will likely “err on the side of the customer” and give him or her water. After all, the airline wouldn’t want its customers drinking tap water from the aircraft bathroom. That water is safe to drink, just not very palatable, according to Durrant.
“Frankly, that’s just not classy,” he says.
Update: Farecompare’s Rick Seaney is flying US Air this afternoon and reports on the scene:
I am now on a US Airways jet heading from Las Vegas to Dallas — but just before boarding, the gate agent made a sarcastic little speech.
He wasn’t upset with us — he was upset with his airline — and he spoke in bitter tones: “It is my very special duty to inform you that today is inauguration day’ at US Airways and what we are inaugurating is our new onboard beverage policy. You now have to pay $2 for that coke, $2 for water.”
Now, nobody booed or anything but I did see surprised and startled looks on the faces of some passengers — apparently they hadn’t heard about this new fee, and looked like they couldn’t quite believe it.
01 Aug, 2008
Cramer Wrong On TNB
======================
from a 5/19/08 post by Tom Brennan to CNBC.com:
Cramer's been talking ad nauseum lately about these "new tech" companies –
the ones committed to solving the world's problems, not just making video games
cooler or cell phones smaller, which is what he believes our tech industry has
become.
Thomas & Betts fits the mold of a new-tech play even if it doesn't look
like it. That's because this electrical company is actually a stealth play on
wind.
In addition to its main business of electrical supplies, TNB also makes
wind towers. This is a small part of the overall company – about 10% - but
Trinity the railcar maker, had an equally small percent of wind exposure and
look what that did to its earnings.
TNB doesn't seem to be doing much to promote its wind business, even though
the wind industry is growing fast. That's why Cramer's mentioning it now.
------------------------------------------
FAST FORWARD TO: this piece of the 7/23/08 TNB analyst conference
call
--------------------------------------------
Alex Rygiel - FBR Capital Markets
Perfect. That's what I… clarification I wanted. And then can you talk about a little about the steel structures business because clearly the wind farm [ph] market is about to take off and as it relates to the wind farm market, there is two opportunities. There is transmission poles and there are wind towers. First, can you address, what you think the growth you could be in transmission poles and then address, why we haven't seen Thomas & Betts talk about the wind towers and if you do have an interest in getting into wind towers over the next couple of years?
Dominic J. Pileggi - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Let's take your second question first, about the wind towers. We are not in the wind tower business. It's a different technology that making the multiple [ph] and so that's not part of our business. Obviously, we are in the transmission line, almost a 100% of our business is in transmission, so we will clear that up. Okay. And we don't have any plans on the table now to get into wind towers. Okay.
-------- and just a bit later ----------
Alex Rygiel - FBR Capital Markets
And I am still trying to understand, but kind of a follow up here, I have looked at Trinity Industries and they have built a very large wind tower business over the last three years, from zero to doing to something like $400 million a year this year and they've got a backlog of something like a $1.5 billion or so of wind towers. Why is it, that somebody like Trinity that doesn't have a pole business per say could enter that market and see very dramatic rapid growth. But Thomas & Betts would avoid it.
Dominic J. Pileggi - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Well Alex, they are different technologies and we got to see down their engineers to give it to you in great detail. But ours are made with the press break, it's a totally different technology to make a wind tower, which we don't do. It's actually simple, as it is.
=================================
EleBlog take -- What all of this proves:
a. Cramer doesn't know everything about everything. His defends might say
"he doesn't pretend to,"
but to those of us who have something inside our crainiums besides bat
guano, he sure as heck does.
b. It appears at least one analyst listens very carefully to what Cramer
says, takes notes, and
regurgitates Cramer's declarative statements in the form of questions.
01 Aug, 2008
More Bad NonRes News
See this page of AIA's weekly newsletter. The web presentation is ESPECIALLY nice -- if you roll over the names of any of the contributing guessers, you get to see SPECIFICS of that source's guess (instead of the consensus numbers).
You're likely to want to do a lot of rolling over and comparison shopping -- because the consensus is just awful. Here's what AIA got when it put the numbers together:
Nonresidential for calendar 2008 -- minus 1.2%
For calendar 2009 -- minus 6.7%.
For calendar 2009 -- minus 6.7%.
That's not at all good.
01 Aug, 2008
Housing Recovery -- MUCH Later
Since much has been made about the Fannie/Freddie bailout bill
and many other bailout-oriented measures, I thought I'd pass along a few nuggets
from Joel Locker of FBN Securities: Even though folks are focused on foreclosure
rates, what's just as material are rental vacancies.
As of the end of Q2, vacant rental units stood at 10% (about 3.94 million units), vs. the 43-year average of 7.16%. That 2.84% difference equates to about 1.12 million excess rental units above the historic mean-- which prompts Joel to ask: "Why keep people in houses they can barely afford without government (taxpayer) assistance when rental units desperately need occupancy?"
As of the end of Q2, vacant rental units stood at 10% (about 3.94 million units), vs. the 43-year average of 7.16%. That 2.84% difference equates to about 1.12 million excess rental units above the historic mean-- which prompts Joel to ask: "Why keep people in houses they can barely afford without government (taxpayer) assistance when rental units desperately need occupancy?"
He also points out that the overall housing vacancy rate
climbed to 14.36% in Q2, against a 43-year average high of 10.75%. (There are
roughly 130 million total units, with 18.6 million vacant.)
To get back to the 10.75% mean, the U.S. would have to create about 4.7 million households.
To achieve equilibrium, we would need to create about 6.6 million jobs (assuming 1.4 jobs as creating a household), and not built one additional housing unit.
To get back to the 10.75% mean, the U.S. would have to create about 4.7 million households.
To achieve equilibrium, we would need to create about 6.6 million jobs (assuming 1.4 jobs as creating a household), and not built one additional housing unit.
So, those are a few macro numbers to chew on every time some uninformed source declares today to be the end of our troubles. When we finally get to the end of the troubles, many of these big numbers will have been worked through and the psychology will be much different from today. I'm not saying that I'll know when that is exactly, but I'm very confident in saying we're nowhere close yet.
See Bill's service, which goes for a bargain price of $120/year, at www.fleckensteincapital.com.
01 Aug, 2008
Half-Year Construction Spending
That's the UNadjusted figure.
If you throw inflation in there -- and economist Jim Haughey of Reed Construction Data says construction inflation is running at 6% to 8% -- then real construction is down 10% or more.
Components of total construction:
Private residential = down 27.2%
Private nonresidential = up 18.3%
Public construction = up 7.0%
I expect nonresidential to fall off of a cliff in 2009, if the AIA's "work on the boards" data is indicative of anything. And the public construction funding comes from taxes . . . much of it on the state level. While the federal government indulges in heavy deficit spending (all of the time), most states can't do that.
01 Aug, 2008
5 Down Months For AIA Index
01 Aug, 2008
Numbers News: EC Workers
Total construction employment in June (all trades, workers in the field only) = 5,746,000, down 6.4% from 6/07. Remember, the huge decline in Residential construction includes one heck of a lot of illegal aliens that the Bureau of Labor Statistics DID NOT COUNT.
-- which means BLS did not count them as employed when they had jobs, and isn't counting them as unemployed now.
Total electrical construction employment in June = 726,800 (prelim, subject to revision). That's down from 742,000 in 6/07 -- or 2.0%. It's up a hair from 5/08, which showed 720,5000.
Perspective: 726,800 EC field workers in June was a good number, higher than the 710,500 of 6/06, and higher than any other june going back to 2001.
(More)
