23 Jun, 2008
Article Podcasts From MIT
An ad in the back of the pub noted "Podcasts of every article every day." It turns out TR is using T2S technology to slap up podcasts of every article in the magazine on the website.
OK, there are questions. Here are some answers and ideas:
1. T2S = text-to-speech. The voice you'll hear in any of the podcasts (click here to go to the page) is mechanical. It's not going to fill you with glee!
2. Access to the page is free. This makes me wonder why I paid for the magazine. OK, OK -- you don't get pictures if you just go to the T2S page. But you'll get the gist (maybe) of what is posted to the site. SO PLEASE GO: At least I can think that I'm paying for your free web/podcast access!!!
3. I wondered, while listening, if this technology is available to ALL magazines (obviously, it is -- but at what cost? is the question) . . . were I a magazine publisher (which I once was!), I'd be looking into this. Heck, you could convert your articles to podcasts without hiring someone to read them. Were you putting out an electrical magazine, let's say, young electricians with iPods could "listen" to your magazine while going to/from work (or perhaps at work, even).
This sure opens up a lot of possibilities, doesn't it?
4. I thought the presentation TR has right now could be improved in a number of ways. One obvious (and easy, I would hope) gain would be to put the time of each podcast next to the listing on the page, so you would know what you were getting into. Additionally, it's not obvious -- at least, I couldn't find it -- how to get access to stuff that's been uploaded previously (older podcasts of older articles . . . )....????
Note that TR says it is ahead of the game: " . . the first media property to combine podcasting and text-to-speech (T2S)
technology to give its tech-savvy users yet another way to get their
daily news." Additionally, savvy young tech folks CAN subscribe to an RSS feed and automatically download podcasts on a daily basis. 2. Access to the page is free. This makes me wonder why I paid for the magazine. OK, OK -- you don't get pictures if you just go to the T2S page. But you'll get the gist (maybe) of what is posted to the site. SO PLEASE GO: At least I can think that I'm paying for your free web/podcast access!!!
3. I wondered, while listening, if this technology is available to ALL magazines (obviously, it is -- but at what cost? is the question) . . . were I a magazine publisher (which I once was!), I'd be looking into this. Heck, you could convert your articles to podcasts without hiring someone to read them. Were you putting out an electrical magazine, let's say, young electricians with iPods could "listen" to your magazine while going to/from work (or perhaps at work, even).
This sure opens up a lot of possibilities, doesn't it?
4. I thought the presentation TR has right now could be improved in a number of ways. One obvious (and easy, I would hope) gain would be to put the time of each podcast next to the listing on the page, so you would know what you were getting into. Additionally, it's not obvious -- at least, I couldn't find it -- how to get access to stuff that's been uploaded previously (older podcasts of older articles . . . )....????
23 Jun, 2008
Security Video Archive
EleBlog observations:
a. I watched one of the videos, a guy named Dunkel on Security Convergence. It was interesting to watch, but led to some other observations.
b. I didn't take the time to watch all 13 videos. But from the looks of them (go to the page, click the link) -- 10 of the 13 videos are guys staring at the camera.
c. A while ago, someone offered me an opportunity to have a video "column" online. I passed. I don't like my voice. If "the camera adds 10 pounds," and I'm already 50 pounds overweight, why would you want to put me on camera?
1. Anixter was talking about this (IP and security converging) five years ago, Graybar four years ago.
2. The video was stultifying. I don't know if Dunkel can be considered a good-looking guy or not (this is not my department!) . . . but focusing a camera on a guy and letting him talk without some kind of intercutting of B-roll of some kind is just boring as heck.
2. The video was stultifying. I don't know if Dunkel can be considered a good-looking guy or not (this is not my department!) . . . but focusing a camera on a guy and letting him talk without some kind of intercutting of B-roll of some kind is just boring as heck.
b. I didn't take the time to watch all 13 videos. But from the looks of them (go to the page, click the link) -- 10 of the 13 videos are guys staring at the camera.
c. A while ago, someone offered me an opportunity to have a video "column" online. I passed. I don't like my voice. If "the camera adds 10 pounds," and I'm already 50 pounds overweight, why would you want to put me on camera?
OK -- it's fine to be critical. But
d. I think it's worthwhile for SDM to put this stuff up there. So while taking a slap at the content, let's applaud the magazine for giving it a try.
e. Having taking a shot at them, it's reasonable for someone reading this to ask: OK, so who's doing it better? ANSWER: Go see www.electrictv.net.
23 Jun, 2008
Wind Video - Watch It!
EleBlog take: This guy Randall Swisher of the AWEA, who is on camera for a bit, makes a heck of a lot of sense.
a. He's right about the monkeying around Congress is doing (and has done) with the renewables tax credit. Just double the thing and make it permanent already!
b. He's right about wind energy being a great opportunity to create manufacturing jobs here in the U.S.
c. He's right about wind being a few footsteps in front of solar photovoltaics (. . . which I like better than wind) . . . right now.
b. He's right about wind energy being a great opportunity to create manufacturing jobs here in the U.S.
c. He's right about wind being a few footsteps in front of solar photovoltaics (. . . which I like better than wind) . . . right now.
An association guy who's right about three things in maybe 1:00 of video -- this is probably some kind of record.
23 Jun, 2008
EE Forum - Listen In
23 Jun, 2008
Electroluminescent Plywood Desk
The EL Plywood Desk is a luminous, smart plywood surface that merges lighting with information access and display . . . .The design uses the laywered construction of plywood to integrate sheets of energy-efficient, ulitra-thin electroluminescent film in the manufacturing process.
. . . As luminous solid-state surfaces replace discrete light fixtures, the infrastructure of artificial lighting merges with information access and display.
. . . As luminous solid-state surfaces replace discrete light fixtures, the infrastructure of artificial lighting merges with information access and display.
No, I've never seen one in real life.
(More)
22 Jun, 2008
10% Of Your Time In Car
A survey CEA conducted this winter tellsus that Americans now spent nearly 17 hours a week in their cars. That figure rivals the 21 hours of television we watch, on average, each week.
Let's leave aside, for the moment, the consumer electronics implications of those numbers (which are obvious -- sell more stuff to people for them to use in their cars!). No, let's dwell on other meanings of those numbers.
1. Unless you live in another universe, you've got 168 hours in a week.
2. If you spentd"nearly 17 hours" in a car, that's 10% of your time!
3. Let's get even deeper. You probably need to sleep at least 6 hours a night. That subtracts 42 from 168 = 126.
4. 17 = 13.4%
5. What about the 21 hours in front of a TV? That's one-sixth of your waking time.
6. Add together the TV time and the drive/car time, and 30% of your time is spent starting straight ahead -- at traffic, or at the tube.
2. If you spentd"nearly 17 hours" in a car, that's 10% of your time!
3. Let's get even deeper. You probably need to sleep at least 6 hours a night. That subtracts 42 from 168 = 126.
4. 17 = 13.4%
5. What about the 21 hours in front of a TV? That's one-sixth of your waking time.
6. Add together the TV time and the drive/car time, and 30% of your time is spent starting straight ahead -- at traffic, or at the tube.
I found this mathematical exercise to be enlightening. How do you get some of this time back? Well, 17 hours in a car is pretty harsh, I think; find work closer to home, or find an employer who favors telecommuting (even 2 days a week). On the other front, turn the damn thing off (pick up a book!).
22 Jun, 2008
Electrical Fires In Dubai
But -- without looking for it -- I stumbled across a 6/12 post from Al-Bawaba. Here's the headline: Electrical fires a real cause for concern in UAE.
UAE = United Arab Emirates.
The lead:
A quick survey showed that while more and more homes in Dubai had fire extinguishers, residents were less likely to attend to early-warning signs of electrical faults such as burnt sockets caused by electrical faults. A recent survey by Duval Messien, conducted across households in the UAE, further revealed that up to 70% experience one kind of fault ranging from burnt sockets to electrical "strings" from electrical appliances.
And:
"A major problem the survey has shown is that residents are unaware within each neighborhood. We need to work collectively to avert preventable electrical fires. Too often we have heard of alarming situations which, for one reason ro another, has been left unattended or simply ignored, which not ony raises the household's exposure but also those of their neighbors," said Sonjib Banerjee, technical director from Duval Messian, a French technology company . . . "
And
Earthing [translation: Grounding] is not a one-off installation procedure; it needs to be maintained regularly according to manufacturer protocols.
Cheaper, more commonly used salt-walter-based earthing needs maintenance once every 3 months, and modern gel-based solutions may need annual maintenance.
Cheaper, more commonly used salt-walter-based earthing needs maintenance once every 3 months, and modern gel-based solutions may need annual maintenance.
EleBlog take: The U.S. needs to work harder and smarter, no question. But I'm not sure the common person in Dubai is ahead of the game. What the heck is salt-water-based grounding, anyway?
NOTE: While looking for the article online (I had printed it off a Nexis database search), I found an earlier story that shook me up: Nearly 70% of UAE residents at risk of electrical fires.
22 Jun, 2008
PHEVs - Funding Please
"The governments of Japan, China, Korea, and India are significantly funding the research, development and deployment of plug-in hybrid vehicle technologies," Fields said at a conference about plug-in hybrids sponsored by Google Inc.'s philanthropic arm and the Brookings Institution. "This is a race that we must win.
"It seems clear that a business case will not evolve, in the near term, without support from Washington."
I've said here (a few times) that PHEVs are gonna be the next big thing in "green." According to the search feature on this site (which works great, by the way), I've mentioned PHEVs eight times.Look for more in the future.
22 Jun, 2008
AIA Convention -- Video
22 Jun, 2008
Tips
. . . the short in the one dimmer in another room was the result of a bare
ground wire that had likely come in contact with the hot leg of the
circuit while in the box.
This, they said, wasn’t my fault because it is somewhat common to see electricians strip back the insulation on the wire too much, which leaves the circuit more susceptible to shorts.
22 Jun, 2008
Presented Without Comment!
From Jeff Caruso at Network World:
Over the past week parts of the blogosphere have been buzzing over the discovery of a 1.5-meter Ethernet cable that is being sold for the insane price of $499.
The manufacturer is Denon, and the target customer is the "audio enthusiast." Apparently "audio enthusiast" is Denonese for "sucker."
22 Jun, 2008
Bad Numbers
AIA's ABI -- down a bit. Here's the release. It's hard to put a positive spin on these numbers (although the biz/mass media did positively spin last month's report). A key figure that probably will be short-shrifted in the reports you see elsewhere: The "project inquiries index" fell 7 points, to 46. That's a bad, bad thing. Last month's reading (of 53) indicated growth; anything under 50 means "no growth." It's just one month. Let's not draw a conclusion on the project inquiries number until next month, or the month after.
McGraw-Hill Construction -- a 6/19 report showed "seasonally adjusted" construction contract starts numbers flat with last year. Page down to the bottom of the web page, however, and you'll find the "unadjusted" 5-month numbers. They still suck, even tho non-residential is Up 13%.
Reed Construction Data -- are Reed and MHC looking at the same universe? Reed's Jan-May totals show non-residential building down 5.2%. Down 5.2% vs. up 13% is a pretty damn big range, isn't it? I wish I could tell you I knew for sure which set of economists were correct, but I can't.
20 Jun, 2008
Grid Problems
CSE: Is the electrical grid keeping up with the digital economy? It would appear that the digital economy requires a level of power quality and reliability that the grid cannot deliver.
PERKINS: It would be cost prohibitive for utilities to invest in infrastructure requirements needed to ensure near 100% system availability required by data centers and other digital economy users. Many utility customers can tolerate brief sags and outages and it would be unreasonable to place the cost burden of business continuity on the broader population of users.
COOK: The grid provides bulk power, the distribution system provides local power. Power quality problems can be addressed at the distribution system level. Work on the grid should be focused on reliability (continuity of service). There are lots of solutions to power quality issues (sags and surges) that can be applied to individual loads up to entire distribution feeders.
20 Jun, 2008
Net Zero Energy
Here's something more recent on a building in Dubai:
Imagine a 59-level building that has rotating levels, each one moving independently according to its occupants’ desire. Imagine also this building’s energy production capacity being enough to not only cover all its needs but also feed the electricity network with excess electrical energy and helping with the city’s energy conservation efforts.
Science fiction? Quite the opposite. Dr David Fisher’s design -creator of Dynamic Architecture- is going to start getting built soon -where else- in Dubai and a second tower is scheduled for Moscow. Energy generation is expected to be 10 times the amount required by the building itself (!!!!) and generation will take place by solar panels at the roof and 48 horizontally rotating wind turbines squeezed between floors. It is estimated that under Dubai wind and sun conditions the tower will annually produce 1,200,000 KWhours, 90% of which will be fed to the grid!
We're moving here from "net zero" energy buildings to BAPP!!! There's more, including an illo -- here.20 Jun, 2008
Retrofits Come Up Big
Dropcloths and booties become key job sites "tools" to keep clients
happy. The Drywall Protector Plate might be another good item for your
toolbox.
Retrofit residential work is coming to the fore . . . via the process of elimination.
20 Jun, 2008
Line Worker Shortage
About 40 percent of line-worker positions nationwide will need
replacements by 2012, according to the Center for Energy Workforce
Development. The International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, a key
labor union, places the average age of line workers nationwide at 51.
The 1,024-word article concludes with these 3 paragraphs:
The National Joint Apprenticeship and Training Committee, started in 1941 by the IBEW and the National Electrical Contractors Association, also stepped up its line-worker training program.
Last year, the committee's outside apprenticeship program had 619 graduates, more than double the number of outside workers it was training in the late 1990s.
"That's a reflection of the incredible opportunities and growth in the outside industry," said NJATC Executive Director Michael Callanan. "Our infrastructure has been neglected, and there's a tremendous amount of work that needs to be done."
20 Jun, 2008
PHEVs - Just The Beginning
-- electric utilities
-- car makers
-- patriots (use electric power instead of imported oil to fuel some of our transportation needs)
Here's some recent stuff:
The electrical power industry's research arm (EPRI) and the rabid dogs of the enviro movement (NRDC) issue a joint press release. They studied PHEVs together and, in sum, here's what they found:
- Widespread adoption of PHEVs can reduce GHG emissions from vehicles by more than 450 million metric tons annually in 2050 -- the equivalent to removing 82.5 million passenger cars from the road
- There is an abundant supply of electricity for transportation; a 60 percent U.S. market share for PHEVs would use 7 percent to 8 percent of grid-supplied electricity in 2050
- PHEVs can improve nationwide air quality and reduce petroleum consumption by 3 million to 4 million barrels per day in 2050
Today’s popular hybrid vehicles use nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries, which can be engineered for relatively short battery-only driving distances in plug-in hybrids. For PHEVs with longer electrical range, the larger energy storage and electrical power requirements are expected to be met with lithium-ion (Li ion) battery technology. Li ion batteries are popular in consumer electronics such as cell phones and laptops and can store two to three times more energy than NiMH batteries of the same weight.
NiMH batteries are a mature technology, but Li ion technology is ripe for new innovation.
NiMH batteries are a mature technology, but Li ion technology is ripe for new innovation.
[yes, it says "new innovation" . . . the English language has been thrown off a cliff]
A 2-page PDF "technology primer" also from EPRI-NRDC (the graphic below comes from it). This one notes that "more than 40% of U.S. generating capacity (i.e., The Power Plants!) operates at reduced load overnight." So PHEV boosterism is, from EPRI's point-of-view, about selling power that right now is being generated and NOT purchased by anyone.
20 Jun, 2008
DCs Are Going Green(er)
A key reason for the growing interest in more energy-efficient products is the rising cost of energy. Companies now spend as much as 10 percent of their technology budgets on energy, says Rakesh Kumar of research firm Gartner. Much of this is spent on cooling, but around half of the budget is used to run servers and computers.
Data center managers are especially concerned with the rapid increase in power and cooling requirements, and the rising cost of electricity. The Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2008 indicates that the price for electricity increased by an average of 9.3 percent in 2006, the largest one-year jump since 1981. Data centers in the United States spent approximately $4.5 billion in power costs in 2006, and are expected to see that cost increase by 40 percent by 2010, according to a study by Lawrence Berkeley National Labs.
From For data centers, green is also the color of money -- if you go to the site, note that the story appears on 2 pages.19 Jun, 2008
Converging Convergence
I was reminded (again) of how good a call that was with an April press release from American Power Conversion, which now calls itself APC (and is owned by Schneider Electric, which also owns Square D). It's about "the APC cable infrastructure assessment service."
So now, APC -- a premier supplier of "critical power" -- is in the cabling business. Here are a few of the services profiled that APC will provide, as given in the release:
Cable Infrastructure Assessment:EleBlog take: Yes -- it's another sign of increasingly converging convergence, isn't it?
-- Management: Assess whether cable management meets industry standards
and make recommendations if needed.
-- Installation: Assess the installation of the horizontal and backbone
cabling into the rack to ensure all codes and standards are being
followed.
-- Labels: Assess to ensure professional labels are being used for the
horizontal and backbone cabling and hardware using self laminating
machine printed labels adhering to the ANSI/TIA/EIA-606-A standard.
-- Logistics: BICSI-Certified RCDD and Registered Technicians perform
the assessment. APC engineers will work to understand the entire
scope of the project in order to properly plan and organize the
assessment process, resulting in a high quality and in-depth cable
infrastructure assessment service.
19 Jun, 2008
Reed's 'Market Insights'
There seems to be a lot of info centralized on that point, which might be good. Jim's latest (6/11) post is Construction finance threatened by the inevitable popping of the oil bubble.
While I have enormous respect for what Jim's written (and what he has said), I have to disagree. Oil ain't no bubble.
19 Jun, 2008
Construction Technology Updates
#33, 1/31/08 -- Technology for Construction show review - printed out at 8 pages, including graphics. I didn't attend this show, so I appreciated the update.
#34, 5/22/08 -- Technology highlights from the AIA Convention -- 12 pages, including graphics. You can't be everywhere; I've never been to an AIA show. It sure will be interesting to read this piece, especially to see where BIM is (or was as of 5/08).
5/28/08 -- Proto-Building: To BIM Is To Build -- 8 pages. "Architects now have the opportunity to build information models with the same rigor as one would build a building."
#34, 5/22/08 -- Technology highlights from the AIA Convention -- 12 pages, including graphics. You can't be everywhere; I've never been to an AIA show. It sure will be interesting to read this piece, especially to see where BIM is (or was as of 5/08).
5/28/08 -- Proto-Building: To BIM Is To Build -- 8 pages. "Architects now have the opportunity to build information models with the same rigor as one would build a building."
Yes, it's a lot of reading. But once I've done it, I'll know a heck of a lot more than I do know about where BIM and other construction technologies are going. No, it's not as informative to read this stuff as to attend the events themselves; but then, as noted -- you can't be everywhere!
18 Jun, 2008
Light Switches TALK!
A future example is a light switch that uses a wireless network
connection so that lights can be controlled from a central location.
Right now, Mr. East said, the chips needed for control and
communication might cost between $5 and $10, and he’s not aware of
anyone implementing a system at that price. But the cost will drop to
below $1 over the next five years, he said.
EleBlog take: I was attracted to the piece (by the headline) because I thought it was about ZigBee. I'm not sure we need another technology that lets light switches talk to each other, when we already have several!
18 Jun, 2008
Resi Security Biz Grows
18 Jun, 2008
NAHB Forecast - Another Downstroke
Single-family starts, 2008 -- 11/24 = 931,000. 6/04 = 650,000
Single-family starts, 2009 -- 11/24 = 1,055,000. 6/04 = 700,000
Multi-family starts, 2008 -- 11/24 = 269,000. 6/04 = 285,000
Multi-family starts, 2008 -- 11/24 = 295,000. 6/04 = 221,000.
TOTAL HOUSING STARTS
11/24: 2008 = 1,200,000, 2009 = 1,350,000
6/04: 2008 = 935,000, 2009 = 921,000
Note that the new forecast for multi-family in 2009 is said to be "the lowest since 1993." Seiders talked about the forecast change in his 6/11 "Eye On The Economy" column.
For previous posts on downstrokes in the NAHB forecast, see this one from 2/17 and another from 2/15.
18 Jun, 2008
Submetering
- Electrical usage analysis and
identification of peak demand levels
- Time-of-use metering of
electricity, gas, water, steam, BTUs, and other energy sources
- Fair and equitable cost
allocation for tenant billing
- Measurement, verification,
and benchmarking of kW/kWh for energy initiatives
- Load comparisons
- Threshold alarming and
notification
- Net metering
- Multi-site load aggregation and real-time historical monitoring of energy consumption patterns for negotiating lower energy rates
07 Jun, 2008
Cable Packaging
The article was written by a Coleman Cable product guy. It's 1,300 words -- and worth thinking about. A sign of the (old) times: The article was posted 7/16/07, and it says not a word about GREEN(!!!).
07 Jun, 2008
Khosla on Green
I had no idea who the guy was, but I was very impressed with his thinking. I went home and found out, in minutes, that he was a Really Rich Venture Capitalist. He's still talking about things green -- and a site, Earth2Tech, has a web video interview tih him talking about "data centers and investment tactics."
It's worth listening to/watching. As the site writes:
Vinod Khosla has been known to make some controversial statements and then put his money where his mouth is with big investments. His numerous plays in biofuel made him a recent target of the Wall Street Journal’s op-ed ire over the food crisis. But going out on a limb and taking a risk is how venture capitalists score big.
07 Jun, 2008
SW + Power
For anyone planning a smart home, it quickly
becomes clear a wiring system is needed that not only accommodates
current requirements, but is future proofed.
Some might decide to install a basic wiring system and hope that future additions can be dealt with wirelessly, but there are plenty who argue that a properly-planned system should include wire wherever possible, even if it means using existing power lines for data communications.
Then there are issues between low-voltage and high-voltage systems; whether to keep them apart, whether to have separate mains circuits for home entertainment systems, and whether to include treatment of mains supplies.
Some might decide to install a basic wiring system and hope that future additions can be dealt with wirelessly, but there are plenty who argue that a properly-planned system should include wire wherever possible, even if it means using existing power lines for data communications.
Then there are issues between low-voltage and high-voltage systems; whether to keep them apart, whether to have separate mains circuits for home entertainment systems, and whether to include treatment of mains supplies.
To give you an idea of how the custom install industry is dealing with such issues, we asked a number of manufacturers, suppliers and installers what the current challenges are in terms of structured wiring and power systems, and what recent technical innovations are important.
Click through to see the 8 brief replies.07 Jun, 2008
EE Windows Block Cell Signals
. . . a senior vice president for strategic planning and technical architecture at Bank of America Corp., said the bank has discovered that energy-efficient windows in its newer buildings are blocking cellular phone signals. As a result, the bank faces paying premium access charges to wireless carriers to enhance indoor cellular signals,
No one said "green" was gonna be a rose garden!07 Jun, 2008
Construction Spending, 1/3 Of Year
April 2008 = $90.137 billion
April 2007 = $93.773 billion
DOWN 3.88% year-over-year, but that's just one month's results.
If you adjust the 4/08 number for inflation (say, add 4%), it would be $97.5 billion.
===
TOTAL CONSTUCTION
Jan-Apr 2008 = $331,592
Jan-Apr 2007 = $341,186
DOWN 2.8% year-over-year for the first 1/3rd of year, UNadjusted for inflation.
SEGMENTS:
Private residential down 20.2% over 4 months.
Private nonresidential UP 16.5% over 4 months.
Total public constrution up 7.8% over 4 months.
-----
4/08 data released 6/2/08.
5/08 data to be released 7/1/08
=============
WHERE WE'RE GOING
It sure as heck hasn't shown up in these numbers, but:
-- residential looks to be down and staying down
-- nonresidential, while still up in spending, is headed down
-- public construction is going to suffer from reduced taxpayer funding in the next year/two years or more.
04 Jun, 2008
Savvy Thinking
Some jurisdictions such as San Francisco require homeowners to bring certain elements of their home up to code before they are sold. Such a requirement could be implemented on the sale of commercial buildings or upon renovation.
Additionally, tools such as the building energy labeling program outlined below and incentives such as the commercial building tax deduction can encourage building owners to consider implementing energy saving technologies and practices. Energy service companies (ESCOs) also can provide low cost and low risk solutions to building owners looking to reduce energy use. The ESCO finances the building upgrades and the building owner pays back the cost from the energy savings achieved.
Existing buildings represent a significant proportion of the current building stock and must be considered in strategies to reduce energy use. The Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL) has estimated that the median lifetime of commercial buildings is 70 to 75 years. This results in an anticipated attrition rate of just two percent of floorspace per year. About 40 percent of the existing commercial building stock was constructed before 1970 and thus before building energy codes.
Additionally, tools such as the building energy labeling program outlined below and incentives such as the commercial building tax deduction can encourage building owners to consider implementing energy saving technologies and practices. Energy service companies (ESCOs) also can provide low cost and low risk solutions to building owners looking to reduce energy use. The ESCO finances the building upgrades and the building owner pays back the cost from the energy savings achieved.
Existing buildings represent a significant proportion of the current building stock and must be considered in strategies to reduce energy use. The Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL) has estimated that the median lifetime of commercial buildings is 70 to 75 years. This results in an anticipated attrition rate of just two percent of floorspace per year. About 40 percent of the existing commercial building stock was constructed before 1970 and thus before building energy codes.
EleBlog take:
1 - I didn't know about the SF requirement on home transfers. It makes a lot of sense. You have the house inspected for termites, why not also mandate that the house someone is buying meet the various codes.
2 - The point made here about existing buildings really resonates. One of my BIG PROBLEMS with the green construction movement, as it has manifested itself so far, is the focus on New Construction. This is the case both in the USGBC/LEED and in the NAHB's housing stuff. Yes, we shouldn't add to the problems we have (which is what you do when you are stupid in the building of a new house or office building). BUT we have 5 million commercial buildings and 128 million dwelling units (or so I have read). That's where the problem lies -- and, as Kent W. Peterson P.E., the guy testifying above, points out . . . "the median lifetime of commercial buildings is 70 to 75 years."
Median. That means half of them LAST LONGER. Buildings built in 1990 could well still be in use in 2080. The green movement hasn't gotten the RETROFIT thing down yet. It's a mistake.
(More)
04 Jun, 2008
Green Power for Data Center
04 Jun, 2008
Inflation Measures Wrong
In his most recent investment letter, released
today, Mr. Gross compared inflation in 24 countries around the world,
which has averaged 7% over the last 10 years, with U.S. inflation,
which has averaged 4%.
“Sure, inflation was legitimately much higher in selected hot spots such as Brazil and Vietnam in the late ’90s, and the U.S. productivity ‘miracle’ may have helped reduce ours a touch compared to some of the rest, but the U.S. dollar over the same period has declined by 30% against a currency basket of its major competitors, which should have had an opposite effect, everything else being equal,” he said.
EleBlog take: Government inflation numbers are misleading at best, totally wrong ALL THE TIME at worst. If John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics is right (and I think he might be), inflation is understated by maybe 3% (300 basis points). “Sure, inflation was legitimately much higher in selected hot spots such as Brazil and Vietnam in the late ’90s, and the U.S. productivity ‘miracle’ may have helped reduce ours a touch compared to some of the rest, but the U.S. dollar over the same period has declined by 30% against a currency basket of its major competitors, which should have had an opposite effect, everything else being equal,” he said.
That's tragic.
04 Jun, 2008
Arc Flash Primer
3. Available fault current: The electrical current that can be provided by serving utility and facility-owned electrical generating devices and large electric motors, considering the amount of impedance in the current path.
4. Bolted fault current: A short circuit or electrical contact between two conductors at different potentials in which the impedance or resistance between the conductors is essentially zero.
9. Exposed (live parts): It is applied to parts that are not suitably guarded, isolated, or insulated.
12. Flash-protection boundary: An approach limit is a distance from live parts that are un-insulated or exposed within which a person could receive a second degree bur
16. Current limiting fuse: A UL Listed, current-limiting fuse must clear a short circuit current in less than one half cycle. By isolating a faulted circuit before the fault current has sufficient time to reach its maximum value, a current-limiting fuse tremendously limits the total electrical energy delivered to the fault, reducing both the magnitude and duration of a fault current.
(More)04 Jun, 2008
Home Depot Bits & Pieces
In the first quarter, we experienced a negative sales growth in all
departments except garden. Plumbing, while negative, outperformed the
company average comp. As expected, the significant weakness in the
quarter came from continued softness in big ticket and construction
departments. Building materials, electrical, millwork, and kitchens all
had double-digit comp declines. With softness in these project
businesses, among others, average ticket was down 2.8% from last year
to $57.36.
Regionally in markets where home prices have declined approximately 15%, we are continuing to see double-digit negative comps. This was reflected in our results in California and in Florida. Even garden, which posted a positive comp for the company reported negative comps in those areas.
Got that? Electrical was down double-digits (along with much else) compared with last year's Q1. The Garden department, although up nationwide, posted a negative comparison to last year's Q1 in CA and FL. This is, at the very least, interesting to think about -- isn't it?- - - - -
Menear continued:
We are also seeing pressure from commodity price inflation and deflation in the market, although pricing for wood products has stabilized, including dimensional lumber and sheet goods, which are now on par with pricing from last year, we continue to see pressure from gypsum deflation.
Copper pricing is up year over year and higher than we had anticipated. Additionally, we are seeing inflationary pressure from petroleum and metals, which is leading to cost pressure.
- - - - -As you'd expect, THD's execs were not entirely negative in this thing (it's a long transcript). Here's a bit from Paul Raines, EVP of U.S. stores:
Despite the difficult environment, we are continuing to reward
associates through our success sharing and Homer Badge programs. We
have not given out over 410,000 Homer badges. We are also proud to say
that we now have 3,000 master trade specialists, all licensed plumbers
or electricians, in our stores.
I actually do not know what a Homer badge is. Before the advent of Homer Simpson, my knowledge of the descriptor "Homer" was for a basketball referee who called fouls repeatedly against the visiting team.
- - - - -
Distributors who compete with THD might be interested in this, from Mark Holifield, SVP supply chain:
Just to refresh everybody’s memory, we are moving very quickly from
about 20% central distribution penetration to about 75%, so it’s a very
aggressive supply chain transformation. Our target for this year is to
end up serving about 40% of our stores with about 30% of their cost of
goods sold. And with any major transformation like that, you do
encounter some bumps in the road.
If you want to read the whole thing, go here.
04 Jun, 2008
Cable Choices
(More)
04 Jun, 2008
Spring PCA Forecast
The thing dates from 4/30/08. Recent data (which show that if a recession is happening, things are pretty good) are NOT incorporated here.
Lots of savvy people (not me) watch cement consumption and use it as a leading indicator of how things are going in construction.
From the thing itself:
Unfortunately, the adverse influence of sub-prime resets and home foreclosures, along with job losses will worsen during the coming year – adding adverse momentum to the economy. While each of these factors were considered and weighed with relative accuracy in the fall recession report, each of these economic conditions has deteriorated beyond PCA expectations.
(More)
03 Jun, 2008
Peak Oil Perspective
Along these lines, several months ago I began a (paid) subscription to Oil & Gas Journal. It's a wonderful magazine. It's an industry magazine. I wanted to subscribe (and read it) so I could get a perspective OTHER THAN what I can get from the Peak Oil enthusiasts. You can get some pretty interesting (and thought-provoking) stuff from www.theoildrum.com.
Incidentally, folks familiar with that website reference it as "TOD" .......which reminds me of one of my employers, TED Magazine!
- - - - -
Having said that bit, I was interested to find a short column on p72 of O&GJ (6/2/08 issue) by the editor, Bob Tippee, with the headline: Yes, the world's running out of oil; what's new? Apparently, he first posted it online 5/23/08.
Here's a bit of what Tippee had to say:
Serious and learned observers believe global oi production soon will peak and quickly begin a steep decline.
Others, equally serious and learned except to those holding opposing views, see a peak and decline of less-alarming imminence and rate.
There's enough uncertainty here to suggest that peak oil, whatever that means, should not move markets on any given day.
What's certain, by virtue of price trends, is that supply can't rise as fast as demand seems inclined to expand. Less certain is whether the constraint is mostly geologic or mostly logistical.
Others, equally serious and learned except to those holding opposing views, see a peak and decline of less-alarming imminence and rate.
There's enough uncertainty here to suggest that peak oil, whatever that means, should not move markets on any given day.
What's certain, by virtue of price trends, is that supply can't rise as fast as demand seems inclined to expand. Less certain is whether the constraint is mostly geologic or mostly logistical.
He continued (excerpting here):
Geologic constraint is evident in shrinking average sizes of oil discoveries and growth in production from high-cost realms such as very deep water and unconventional resources . . .
Logistical constraint is manifest in industry operating rates near capacity levels and project starts delayed by shortage of workers and materials . . .
Logistical constraint is manifest in industry operating rates near capacity levels and project starts delayed by shortage of workers and materials . . .
And he ended as follows:
Assertive supply limits deserve concern, not panic. The end of oil production isn't near -- just nearest than it was yesterday.
- - - - -
EleBlog take:
a. It's actually ENcouraging to see someone with Tippee's place in the world being . . . reasonable!
b. No one (not even the folks on TOD) says that oil production is near an end. The reasonable position put forward by Peak Oil enthusiasts and believers is pretty simple: We've found all or most of the easy-to-find, easy-to-harvest crude oil on the planet Earth. We aren't about to run out. But we're going to have a lot of trouble meeting escalating demand (especially if the Indians and Chinese all want to drive cars -- and why shouldn't they?). The next few hundred million barrels we find and harvest are going to be a LOT more expensive for end-users than the ones we consumed earlier this decade.
c. My personal belief is that we in the U.S. should start treating crude oil as a scarce resource. That means shifting as much of our transportation system to non-oil-consuming methods (water, rail, biofuels, electric vehicles, you-name-it). It means treating the crude we have not yet pulled out of the ground (in Alaska and in the waters off of our coasts) as something we want to PRESERVE, not consume willy-nilly.
. . . so endeth the sermon.
03 Jun, 2008
The Price Is Going Up
Steven Gambuzza - Longbow Research
I'd just question on your outlook for operating margin improvement over the balance of the year, you demonstrated the success and were then improving the operating margin with the current flat to down organic sales growth in the first quarter and I guess, I'm just wondering when you look out for the balance of the year, how contingent is your operating margin forecast on your sales growth, the markets soften a little bit more than you anticipated and sales becoming lower, are you able to kind of achieve your targets through internal productivity initiatives, or does lack of fixed cost absorption start to become an issue towards the lower end of your sales range?
Timothy H. Powers - Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer
Well,
I would say the biggest variable in the future of our margins has more
to do with the cost price equation and the coming increases in the cost
of steel and the effect of hundred and something teen dollar per barrel
of oil and our ability on the timeliness to recoup that from the
market.
So, like all of us in the electrical business, we're staring
double-digit increases in steel and we have price increases out there
in the markets. So our ability, I have no doubt in our ability to
recoup it.
It's a question of the timing to get back those cost increases with price increases and that probably is a bigger variable than I see in the risk of revenue between now and the end of the year.
EleBlog take: This is what Powers said out loud, with full knowledge that the call was being taped (and that his competitors were listening in). The message he's sending is: THE PRICE IS GOING UP.03 Jun, 2008
Perspective On Housing
To get to the point: I was reading HW's Fiscal Q2 earnings call transcript (find it here), and stumbled over this, from Kirk Benson, chair/CEO. Note that HW doesn't build houses, but supplies stuff (there's a Building Products Segment):
The inventory of new homes for sale has declined. Non-seasonally adjusted units of unsold inventory are now at their lowest levels since July 2005 as builders continue to scale back building activities. However, seasonally adjusted months of inventory reached a new high in March due to a significant slowdown in sales. There are now 11 months of supply based on the current sales pace. Steadily declining inventory levels failed to offset the dramatic slowdown in sales.
So, as expected, we continue to be impacted by the down cycle in new residential construction. In addition, weather in the March 2008 quarter was more superior than the March 2007 quarter, exacerbating the effect of the down cycle. A combination of the residential down cycle and poor weather conditions resulted in a 19% drop in the year-over-year revenue.
We expect new single-family residential construction to be down by more than 30%
Why is this here? This is about HOUSING, not HW.
The point Benson makes in the 2nd paragraph -- "weather in 3/08 was more superior than the 3/07 quarter" . . . something I had not spent much time thinking about. So if housing was down in the 3/08 quarter vs. the 3/07 quarter, that's bad; and then add to the fact that weather was better this year than last over the same time period.
03 Jun, 2008
HUGE Opportunity
Here's the scoop on a HUGE opportunity:Commercial "non-mall" buildings constructed, by year:
Before 1920 -- 303,000 "lit" buildings
1920 to 1945 -- 476,000
1946 to 1959 -- 517,000
1960 to 1969 -- 553,000
1970 to 1979 -- 688,000
1920 to 1945 -- 476,000
1946 to 1959 -- 517,000
1960 to 1969 -- 553,000
1970 to 1979 -- 688,000
I'm not sure why there is an "all buildings" total and a "lit buildings" total, but I went with the lesser number.
For the years before 1980, then, there are 2,537,000 buildings -- STILL IN USE as of the 2003 survey.
For more on CBECS, go here.
- - - -
Page 218 (the 3rd page of Table B43) shows "Renovations in Buildings Constructed Before 1980." According to this table, as of the CBECS survey date (2003), 444,000 of the "non-mall" commercial buildings built before 1980 had undergone a Lighting Upgrade since 1980.
- Now, you can do a lot of quibbling here. A building that had a lighting upgrade in 1995 probably needs another one. AND, certainly, at least some of the buildings that had NOT had an upgrade since 1980 HAVE had one in the period 2003-2008.
- Quibbling further still: There were 652,000 "lit" buildings constructed in the years 1980-89, and another 781,000 "lit" buildings built in the years 1990 to 1999. I would guess some of them have had lighting upgrades in the 8+ years since, but many have not.
- - - - -
Now, let's go ahead and quibble. Let's say 50% of the opportunity in the pre-1980 buildings has disappeared in the past 5 years, as many of these old (pre-1980) buildings. Let's say 50% of the buildings built between 1980 and 1999 already have had a recent (2001 or later) lighting upgrade. That still leaves the sitch as follows:
1,046,500 buildings constructed before 1980 need a lighting upgrade RIGHT NOW.
716,500 buildings built in the years 1980-1999 that probably need attention, too.
That's 1.76 million commercial buildings that need the attention of electrical contractors, folks. The country, as of 2003, had 4.25 million "lit" buildings.
716,500 buildings built in the years 1980-1999 that probably need attention, too.
That's 1.76 million commercial buildings that need the attention of electrical contractors, folks. The country, as of 2003, had 4.25 million "lit" buildings.
So if you walk down an "average" urban or suburban street in the U.S. today, and walk or drive past 10 building that were built before 1999, there's a good chance that four of them need an up-to-date, modern, energy-savvy lighting retrofit.
. . . now, go ahead and Quibble Still Further. Say that the 2003 survey is old, energ prices have become much higher lately, and there's been a rush of retrofitting. Cut the opportunity outlined here in half again.
That still means TWO out of every TEN buildings -- some 850,000 nationwide -- need lighting retrofits.
01 Jun, 2008
Green Thinking Explored
You should read the whole thing (and you can -- here). But here's a long but thoughtful paragraph (which I subdivided to ease reading):
Subaru's assembly line in Indiana was the first automobile factory
certified as a zero-landfill plant, and it's widely accepted as one of
the cleanest factories in the world.
So, how much does it matter that
the conventional Tribeca SUV built there suffers in the ACEEE's green
score because its engine is certified at a slightly higher emissions
level than some others?
Ford's F-150 pickup, often cast as a dinosaur
of old tech, is built at Ford's new Rouge plant, with its sedum-covered
roof to filter rain runoff and convert CO2 through photosynthesis and
solar panels that heat the water and provide excess energy for other
applications.
EleBlog take: As our national misadventure with ethanol perhaps has demonstrated, there's a LOT to think about in making green decisions. The key here, obviously, is that one has to THINK about this stuff to make good decisions. Estimates rank the F-150's supply, assembly and
customer-transportation costs among the lowest in the auto industry and
those of the Prius among the highest.
01 Jun, 2008
How Many CFL Makers?
"Today, there are mroe than 100 manufacturers of ENERGY STAR-qualified compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs)."
. . . I didn't know there were 100 manufacturers of light bulbs (of all types) in the world. So, I guess, if you are Paying Attention, you DO learn something every day!
01 Jun, 2008
GDP Understatement + Pollution
The U.S. EPA says carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. increased 1.6% in 2007. Compared with GDP growth (2.2% in '07), that sounds like we became efficient -- growing at 2.2% at a "cost" of "only" 1.6% more pollution.
But wait: GDP growth is arrived at by figuring "nominal" growth in the economy (everything, all in) and then SUBTRACTING INFLATION from that.
SO: If inflation is higher, GDP growth is lower.
I think inflation IS higher, and GDP growth is higher.
Therefore, the EPA's note that GDP outgrew carbon dioxide emissions is WRONG. Here's a graph to go with it, from this EPA site page:
01 Jun, 2008
Meet Dan Doofus
You can view the "Dan Doofus PSA" online -- here.
01 Jun, 2008
Online Courses Get Boot
Unfortunately, all the negatives generally expressed about online training have proven to be true,with oine additional negative for fiber optic training -- the lack of accountability in detemrining that students have completed hands-on activities in an acceptable manner.
. . . the lack of oversight in online courses has proven NOT to be compatible with the training required for iber optic technicians to qualify for CFOT certification. Therefore, the FOA has decided to NOT accept online training for CFOT certification.
. . . the lack of oversight in online courses has proven NOT to be compatible with the training required for iber optic technicians to qualify for CFOT certification. Therefore, the FOA has decided to NOT accept online training for CFOT certification.
01 Jun, 2008
enLIGHTen America
. . . such
communications vehicles as press releases, feature articles, direct
mail, trade show graphics, and a dedicated website. The campaign will
also be supported by a personal message from Secretary of Energy,
Samuel W. Bodman, who "invites our nation’s leaders to become full
participants in a national effort to make our buildings more energy
efficient.”
