27 Feb, 2008
Commercial In Jeopardy
Recession is about to claim its next victim: Commercial construction. A downturn in such activity would represent a significant turnaround from last year’s boom: Although nonresidential or structures investment accounted for only 3.4% of (nominal) GDP, the 16% jump in real outlays contributed half a point to overall real GDP growth over the four quarters of 2007. Such a gain — the sharpest 4-quarter rise since 1984 — is unsustainable, and we think this economic asset is about to turn into a liability. Tighter financial conditions, uncertain tenancy, rents, and property values all will contribute to a downturn in office, retail and warehouse activity. Soaring construction costs are also a negative. Weakness is already showing: Nonresidential construction starts tumbled 13% from a year ago in January, according to Reed Construction Data.
Despite these hurdles, we think that the contraction in outlays will be shallow by historical comparison. The key factor limiting the downturn in traditional commercial construction is that the overall growth in supply for much of this expansion has been modest by historical standards. The “capital discipline” theme that governed corporate spending in this expansion partly extended to construction as well. For example, commercial construction excluding healthcare facilities rose by only 3.9% annualized over the past five years.
But discipline seems to have faded over the past year, when construction accelerated in virtually all categories, and with the slowdown in business activity, vacancy rates have begun to rise. There are clear pockets of excess in financial services office building and in retail and lodging. A slowdown in office employment and shakeouts in retail and wholesale activity may pressure rents just as lenders and investors tighten credit availability and raise its price. However, mining, power, and healthcare construction may buck the trend.
Because nonresidential construction includes a broad variety of structures, it’s important to distinguish among them to assess vulnerability. In my view, the commercial, lodging, manufacturing, and amusement areas, comprising 45% of total nonresidential outlays, are the most vulnerable to the forces described above. Commercial building proper — including offices, facilities for retailers, restaurants and warehouses — accounted for 28.8% of private nonresidential outlays last year, and hotels, amusements, and manufacturing consumed 7.6%, 2.4% and 6.1% of outlays, respectively. Two other categories were much bigger than these last three, and look much less vulnerable: Spending on power generation and communications structures represented 12.2%, while mining and exploration accounted for fully one-quarter of the total. Slower growth is likely; annualized gains in those two infrastructure components of 16.6% and 17.9% over the past two years are unsustainable. But given the needs, downturns seem unlikely. Religious, educational and farm spending made up the remainder.
The tightening in financial conditions for commercial real estate is manifest both in reduced availability and in higher cost of credit. Regarding availability, according to the Fed’s January Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of 56 domestic banks and 23 foreign-owned banking institutions, some 80% of domestic banks reported tightening their lending standards on commercial real estate loans over the past three months— the highest since the Fed introduced this question in 1990. Most banks in the latest survey said that they had required higher debt service coverage ratios and lower loan-to-value ratios on commercial real estate loans in 2007, and nearly half reduced the maximum loan sizes that they were willing to grant over the past twelve months. Further stark evidence of the evaporation of credit availability comes from the securitization market: Until last week, no commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) had been issued so far this year —the longest such dry spell since October 1990.
Indeed, the CMBS market has been under intense pressure so far this year. Spreads for the highest-quality names at the top of the capital structure (AAA super senior securities) have widened by 100 bp or more to 225-240 bp over Libor just in the past month. The buyers’ strike in the CMBS market is understandable: Investors are afraid that a recession will trigger soaring delinquencies and defaults. Several years of rising property values convinced issuers to add leverage to their operations, and encouraged the rating agencies to maintain or boost ratings based on property values rather than the ability of cash flows to cover debt service. As a result, investors see CMBS as much more vulnerable to losses than in the past.
Beyond the tightening in financial conditions, the fundamental outlook is darkening for commercial construction. Tenancy, rents and property values all face a highly uncertain economic and financial backdrop. Office employment growth has decelerated over the past two years from 2.6% to 1.8%, and further declines seem likely. Retailing is clearly under pressure as consumers trim spending gains. And some large hotel chains are lowering their expectations for revenue per available room (REVPAR) this year. On the supply side, real outlays for office construction rose at an 18.6% annual rate over the past two years. In the fourth quarter alone, more than 19 million square feet of new office space came on the market according to Reis, Inc., the most since the fourth quarter of 2000. In 2008 Reis expects about 75 million square feet of new office space to come online in the 79 markets it tracks, up from 53 million square feet finished in 2007. Real construction spending for multi-merchandise shopping and lodging increased 10.3% and 53.7%, respectively, over the past 8 quarters.
The emerging imbalance between supply and demand is beginning to show up in rising vacancy rates. The national office vacancy rate rose to 12.6% in the fourth quarter — the first increase in four years. Some markets are still strong. Effective rents in Boston jumped 4.9% in the fourth quarter, and in New York City, they rose by 3.9%. But vacancy rates jumped by 1.9 percentage points in San Bernardino/Riverside, California; 1.7 pp in Orange County, Calif. and Fort Lauderdale; and 1.6 pp in Las Vegas. Smaller increases were evident in Salt Lake City, Tacoma, Austin, Hartford, Phoenix and the Maryland suburbs of Washington. Vacancy rates don’t yet reflect sublease space coming available as mortgage lenders go out of business. They will soon.
As if those imbalances weren’t enough, construction costs are soaring. True, the overall price index for nonresidential construction in the National Income and Product Accounts rose by just 5.1% last year following two years of double-digit gains. This deceleration may not last, as steel and copper prices are rising again. Domestic mills are hiking steel quotes, reflecting supply problems, increased exports, and limited imports. Copper futures jumped to $3.62 per pound last week, 20% higher than a month ago. The International Copper Study Group reports that global copper consumption rose 7.2% in the first 10 months of last year. Severe snowstorms in China might have disrupted copper production there. Rising energy costs, especially for diesel fuel, are also contributing to the surge in overall construction costs. Such price hikes are driving up costs and hurting builders’ budgets, and thus will be another hurdle to construction activity this year.
For investors in the CMBS market, the battering in values over the past two months must seem reminiscent of the subprime meltdown. CMBS spreads are now pricing in significant weakness in real estate fundamentals bordering on a record-setting collapse. We disagree with this outlook. Defaults will rise over the next two years, especially where leverage is excessive, but they aren’t likely to be as severe as in 1990. Thus, we think that the CMBS market is oversold, especially at the top of the capital structure. According to Ahsim Khan of Morgan Stanley’s CMBS trading unit, based on historical loss severities, virtually every loan in AAA super senior CMBS would have to default for the securities to default That seems highly unlikely.
Downside risks predominate for construction activity, reflecting the tightening in financial conditions. The uncertain economic and financial backdrop may mean that lenders will tighten further. But while the credit cycle is only beginning, and buyers should be selective, investors may look back on this episode as a reasonable buying opportunity in the highest-quality securities. That’s especially the case as the market forces discipline on developers by cutting new construction and thus supply.
Despite these hurdles, we think that the contraction in outlays will be shallow by historical comparison. The key factor limiting the downturn in traditional commercial construction is that the overall growth in supply for much of this expansion has been modest by historical standards. The “capital discipline” theme that governed corporate spending in this expansion partly extended to construction as well. For example, commercial construction excluding healthcare facilities rose by only 3.9% annualized over the past five years.
But discipline seems to have faded over the past year, when construction accelerated in virtually all categories, and with the slowdown in business activity, vacancy rates have begun to rise. There are clear pockets of excess in financial services office building and in retail and lodging. A slowdown in office employment and shakeouts in retail and wholesale activity may pressure rents just as lenders and investors tighten credit availability and raise its price. However, mining, power, and healthcare construction may buck the trend.
Because nonresidential construction includes a broad variety of structures, it’s important to distinguish among them to assess vulnerability. In my view, the commercial, lodging, manufacturing, and amusement areas, comprising 45% of total nonresidential outlays, are the most vulnerable to the forces described above. Commercial building proper — including offices, facilities for retailers, restaurants and warehouses — accounted for 28.8% of private nonresidential outlays last year, and hotels, amusements, and manufacturing consumed 7.6%, 2.4% and 6.1% of outlays, respectively. Two other categories were much bigger than these last three, and look much less vulnerable: Spending on power generation and communications structures represented 12.2%, while mining and exploration accounted for fully one-quarter of the total. Slower growth is likely; annualized gains in those two infrastructure components of 16.6% and 17.9% over the past two years are unsustainable. But given the needs, downturns seem unlikely. Religious, educational and farm spending made up the remainder.
The tightening in financial conditions for commercial real estate is manifest both in reduced availability and in higher cost of credit. Regarding availability, according to the Fed’s January Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of 56 domestic banks and 23 foreign-owned banking institutions, some 80% of domestic banks reported tightening their lending standards on commercial real estate loans over the past three months— the highest since the Fed introduced this question in 1990. Most banks in the latest survey said that they had required higher debt service coverage ratios and lower loan-to-value ratios on commercial real estate loans in 2007, and nearly half reduced the maximum loan sizes that they were willing to grant over the past twelve months. Further stark evidence of the evaporation of credit availability comes from the securitization market: Until last week, no commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) had been issued so far this year —the longest such dry spell since October 1990.
Indeed, the CMBS market has been under intense pressure so far this year. Spreads for the highest-quality names at the top of the capital structure (AAA super senior securities) have widened by 100 bp or more to 225-240 bp over Libor just in the past month. The buyers’ strike in the CMBS market is understandable: Investors are afraid that a recession will trigger soaring delinquencies and defaults. Several years of rising property values convinced issuers to add leverage to their operations, and encouraged the rating agencies to maintain or boost ratings based on property values rather than the ability of cash flows to cover debt service. As a result, investors see CMBS as much more vulnerable to losses than in the past.
Beyond the tightening in financial conditions, the fundamental outlook is darkening for commercial construction. Tenancy, rents and property values all face a highly uncertain economic and financial backdrop. Office employment growth has decelerated over the past two years from 2.6% to 1.8%, and further declines seem likely. Retailing is clearly under pressure as consumers trim spending gains. And some large hotel chains are lowering their expectations for revenue per available room (REVPAR) this year. On the supply side, real outlays for office construction rose at an 18.6% annual rate over the past two years. In the fourth quarter alone, more than 19 million square feet of new office space came on the market according to Reis, Inc., the most since the fourth quarter of 2000. In 2008 Reis expects about 75 million square feet of new office space to come online in the 79 markets it tracks, up from 53 million square feet finished in 2007. Real construction spending for multi-merchandise shopping and lodging increased 10.3% and 53.7%, respectively, over the past 8 quarters.
The emerging imbalance between supply and demand is beginning to show up in rising vacancy rates. The national office vacancy rate rose to 12.6% in the fourth quarter — the first increase in four years. Some markets are still strong. Effective rents in Boston jumped 4.9% in the fourth quarter, and in New York City, they rose by 3.9%. But vacancy rates jumped by 1.9 percentage points in San Bernardino/Riverside, California; 1.7 pp in Orange County, Calif. and Fort Lauderdale; and 1.6 pp in Las Vegas. Smaller increases were evident in Salt Lake City, Tacoma, Austin, Hartford, Phoenix and the Maryland suburbs of Washington. Vacancy rates don’t yet reflect sublease space coming available as mortgage lenders go out of business. They will soon.
As if those imbalances weren’t enough, construction costs are soaring. True, the overall price index for nonresidential construction in the National Income and Product Accounts rose by just 5.1% last year following two years of double-digit gains. This deceleration may not last, as steel and copper prices are rising again. Domestic mills are hiking steel quotes, reflecting supply problems, increased exports, and limited imports. Copper futures jumped to $3.62 per pound last week, 20% higher than a month ago. The International Copper Study Group reports that global copper consumption rose 7.2% in the first 10 months of last year. Severe snowstorms in China might have disrupted copper production there. Rising energy costs, especially for diesel fuel, are also contributing to the surge in overall construction costs. Such price hikes are driving up costs and hurting builders’ budgets, and thus will be another hurdle to construction activity this year.
For investors in the CMBS market, the battering in values over the past two months must seem reminiscent of the subprime meltdown. CMBS spreads are now pricing in significant weakness in real estate fundamentals bordering on a record-setting collapse. We disagree with this outlook. Defaults will rise over the next two years, especially where leverage is excessive, but they aren’t likely to be as severe as in 1990. Thus, we think that the CMBS market is oversold, especially at the top of the capital structure. According to Ahsim Khan of Morgan Stanley’s CMBS trading unit, based on historical loss severities, virtually every loan in AAA super senior CMBS would have to default for the securities to default That seems highly unlikely.
Downside risks predominate for construction activity, reflecting the tightening in financial conditions. The uncertain economic and financial backdrop may mean that lenders will tighten further. But while the credit cycle is only beginning, and buyers should be selective, investors may look back on this episode as a reasonable buying opportunity in the highest-quality securities. That’s especially the case as the market forces discipline on developers by cutting new construction and thus supply.
27 Feb, 2008
Rebate vs. Housing
I saw a couple of talking heads on CNBC this morning saying that the rebate checks would boost GDP. Maybe. It's hard to imagine $150 billion having a big impact in a $13 trillion economy. If 70% of GDP is in the consumer sector, then the consumer piece is $9 trillion.
Does $150 billion add up to a bigger percentage of $9 trillion than I think? It's 1.67%.
Let's forget math for a moment. I think the continuing (and worsening?) housing decline could completely override whatever "good feeling" $150 billion engenders. This Reuters report -- on Economy.com data -- is positively frightening:
One-tenth of U.S. homeowners hold mortgages that are larger than the worth of their homes, Moody's Economy.com said on Friday.
Nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent, are in over their heads, its chief economist, Mark Zandi, estimates.
As a result, millions of U.S. homeowners have the incentive to abandon their properties.
Now, add to that these facts:a. As posted here earlier, Kasriel of Northern Trust computes that a 21.7% decline in housing prices is likely before the worst is over.
b. As of 12/31/07, we'd seen only 8% of that decline.
c. Add in this (from a Marketwatch.com report)
b. As of 12/31/07, we'd seen only 8% of that decline.
c. Add in this (from a Marketwatch.com report)
"Ceaseless talk of a recession continues to dampen the mood of
consumers in general, whether or not a recession actually occurs. For
home buyers, we believe this drumbeat, coupled with concerns over
mortgages, the direction of home prices, and foreclosures, has kept
pent-up demand on the sidelines," said Robert I. Toll, chairman and
chief executive, in a statement.
EleBlog take: If Economy.com is correct (and I've previously said that Mark Zandi of that site is one of my favorite economists), and Kasriel is right, we could well be headed to a situation in which 15% or 20% of American homeowners -- perhaps 15 million families -- owe more on their mortgages than the houses in which they live are worth. People are not stupid. Handing someone in such a situation a check for $1,000 isn't going to materially improve his perception of his own situation.. . . especially if his neighbor gets laid off (which might happen in a recession).
It's possible that many people getting these rebate things will -- FINALLY -- do something prudent, and either pay use them to pay off credit card debt, put money away for a rainy day, drop it into an account for the kid's future education, or pay down the debt on the car (a lot of people are "upside down" on their car loans, too).
While I am sure that these things are "the right thing to do" -- for smart people -- and I AM sure these things would be good (in the long term) for the economy, I don't think they help stave off a recession.
Of course, I could be wrong. Perhaps 85% of the foks who get the money will run out and spend it. That still seems like a drop in the bucket to me!
27 Feb, 2008
Greener Network Cabling
I've been discussing with folks that there is a LOT more to green in the electrical/datacom contracting industry than just retrofitting CFLs for incandescent light bulbs. One thing that caught my eye on the Siemon page: Siemon's 2009 catalog program reduces paper usage by over 40%.
27 Feb, 2008
What Pike Said
Here's a piece that I thought interesting -- initial comments by Anthony Slater, CFo. The "Eric" he references is Eric Pike, CEO.
Core power line billable hours decreased approximately 14.1% year-over-year, the decline in billable hours was due to the reduction in headcount as a result of exiting certain contracts and the moderation in our customers demand. In addition to increases in storm restoration work which diverted some core power line revenues. Revenue generated in the second quarter of fiscal 2007 from exited accounts totaled $8 million. Excluding revenue from exited accounts, core power line revenue decreased 2.2%. Storm restoration revenues totaled $19.6 million, a 39.3% increase from $14.1 million for the comparable quarter last year.
As Eric mentioned, winter storms in the mid West and mid Atlantic regions drove demand for our storm work in the quarter. Gross profit for the second quarter was $24.5 million or 17.1% of revenue compared to $24.5 million or 16.5% of revenue for the second quarter last year. The 60-basis point year-over-year improvement in gross margins was due to a number of factors. As with previous quarter, gross margins continued to benefit from operational efficiencies as well as the prior elimination of certain lower margin accounts and more favorable pricing which we achieved in the latter part of 2007. In addition, a greater contribution from higher margin storm revenues also contributed to the increase in the quarter.
These factors were partially offset by a $500,000.00 investment in retardant uniform shirts.
EleBlog notes:1 -- Pike didn't do so well in the most recent quarter, whereas Quanta Services had a spectacular 90 days. One difference: Quanta bought InfraSource Services. Also, Pike is smaller.
2 -- Investing in Quanta or Pike (or any other powerline contractor, if any come public) is certainly chancy. Revenues soar when there are destructive hurricanes. No storms = revenue drops. The company managers have to cope with both conditions: Staffing up to meet storm-generated demand isn't easy; ramping things down when no significant storms materialize (as was the case for much of 2007) isn't a simple thing, either.
3 -- Note that last sentence -- the half-a-million-dollar investment in PPE (personal protective equipment).
27 Feb, 2008
Hybrids + Batteries
JOHN: I would say that the consumer is starting to feel it but we haven’t hit that pain threshold where they will say, “that’s it, we’re just not driving any more, we’re doing something different.”
Again, for investment, yes, say you could buy a Toyota Prius or something like that, but the real issue is that going to solve the problem? You know, in 100,000 miles you’re going to have to replace a very expensive battery bank. And so ultimately, when you look at your cost savings, there really isn’t a cost saving over the long run for that type of vehicle.
JIM: Yeah, that’s one of the problems they have with hybrids, some of those batteries. I was talking with somebody at the Mercedes dealership. Mercedes sales really took off in the late 80s because of their diesel cars. They could get this 30 miles, 40 miles; and then all of a sudden the price of gasoline went down. And when I talked to the Mercedes people, I asked, “how come you guys never came out with a hybrid?” And that was one of the things that they mentioned, “we looked at that, but the battery bank is so expensive that you’re going to look at 7 to 10,000 dollars and replacing those batteries versus let’s say the diesel Mercedes, 200,000 miles. [25:25]
JOHN: When you factor it all out over a hundred, 200,000 miles there is no net savings. That’s the point. And we don’t have the hybrids to the level whereby you can take it home and plug it in to an external port outside your house and charge it off cheap electricity generated by the things we’ve talked about before. That’s not there yet.
EleBlog take: A couple of points:1 -- why isn't there more use of diesel in the U.S.? Diesel is more fuel-efficient than gasoline.
2 -- what's being discussed in the last sentences is the PHEV -- the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. If you look back to earlier this month, the EleBlog ran a link to a speech from the EEI's chief on the future of electricity . . . which included PHEVs as #1 on the future agenda.
27 Feb, 2008
Energy Roundtable
Note that the roundtable runs more than 10,000 words. You can choose to listen to it instead (it's available in four modes -- see the top of the page).
Here's a key piece of the roundtable. Jim is Jim Puplava, host of the roundtable (and the site). Matt is Simmons, of course. CERA = Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy industry consulting firm:
JIM:
Something that does not get enough play in my opinion is depletion.
I mean we saw the CERA report that came out a couple of weeks ago that
said that world oil depletion was 4 ½% a year or about 4 million
barrels that we need to find just to stay in place. And yet we
know the large oil fields – Cantarell, North Sea, North Slope – the
depletion rates there are much higher.
Matt, you looked at the world’s oil fields and came up with some different conclusions than the optimistic CERA report. Were you guys looking at different data because...
MATT: I don’t have any idea. I’m very puzzled with that report. They lay out, without any names, some very specific numbers and in the number of fields they say they’re looking at and how much those fields collectively add up to. And what puzzles me is that they say they have 811 fields in their database – in their proprietary database – and that 400 of the 811 are all giant oil fields accounting for about almost 50% of world production, which means that they would have to average 90,000 barrels a day per field.
Well,
when I went through last – in the fall of 2001, one of the more
enjoyable treasure hunts I’ve done because I got more and more
intrigued by no one seems to have a list of the top 20 or 30 or 40 oil
fields. So I decided to put a cut-off of 100,000 barrels a day as
my definition of anything over that is a giant oil field. And I
searched far and wide and in fact at one point we spent a fair amount of
money buying 34 fields from the IHS database because even the CIA
didn’t have any field production out of Russia. They didn’t
even know the names anymore.
So at any rate, I finally got this,
added it all up, put in a pretty extensive white paper and then
circulated that to hundreds and hundreds of people that might know, and
saying that “I’m going to republish when I get some better data or
if you think x field is producing less or more, please let me
know.” That got unbelievably widely praised as the first study
that anyone had done maybe ever on oil fields – not by their reserves
but by their production.
And I came up with 110 that accounted for
90% of our current production, so how you could find 400 that were 49%.
Something had to be totally wrong with the study I did. I mean
vastly wrong.
With crude oil prices above $101/barrel at this moment, it might be a good time to listen to/read Simmons. Folks who have listened to him have guessed right on the direction of oil prices . . . even as we (apparently) verge upon entering a recession.
26 Feb, 2008
AIA Index Drops 'Precipitously'
Following a stretch of 3 months with an increase in demand for
design services, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped
precipitously in January. As a leading economic indicator of
construction activity, the ABI shows an approximate nine to twelve
month lag time between architecture billings and construction
spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the
January ABI rating was 50.7, down sharply from the 55.0* mark in
December (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings),
and inquiries for new projects was 59.5. [emphasis added by EleBlog]
“Given the concerns about condition of the overall economy, coupled with a suffering housing market, it is not surprising to see a falloff in demand for architectural services.” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “This is likely to affect firms that specialize in commercial and industrial projects the most because businesses are expressing growing anxiety over a potential recession and are cutting back on plans for expansion.”
* Every January the AIA research department uses a formula from
the Department of Commerce that re-estimates ABI data based on
seasonal factors resulting in a recalibration of recent
figures.
“Given the concerns about condition of the overall economy, coupled with a suffering housing market, it is not surprising to see a falloff in demand for architectural services.” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “This is likely to affect firms that specialize in commercial and industrial projects the most because businesses are expressing growing anxiety over a potential recession and are cutting back on plans for expansion.”
NOTE: This is a NON-residential index. The AIA has a separate quarterly report on residential, but the ABI omits that stuff.
Here's the graphic AIA provided in its weekly online newsletter (2/22/08 edition), which provides more information -- including a graphic on the % of architecture firms using BIM these days:
(More)
26 Feb, 2008
Housing Price Fall (?)
Unfortunately, I don't get the chance to read Kasriel's stuff as it's posted to the web (here) -- so right now I'm involved in catching up with stuff he (and others at his shop) have written going back to December.
His Dec. 17th "Econtrarian" column included the graphic and comments below:
To get some idea how much the price of your house might fall, consider the implications of how much the price of your house has risen relative to your income (Chart 8). Between 1980 and 2000, the price of your house averaged about 337% of your income.
Then, according to former Fed Chairman Greenspan, came the delayed effect of the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the price of your house soared to 469% of your income – a record high for the 1968 through 2006 period. Assuming, optimistically, that your income increases by 4.05% in 2007 and 2008, the rate at which your income increased in 2006, by what percentage would the price of your house have to fall from its 2006 level to get the price/income ratio back to 337% average in 2008?
The answer is 21.7%.
From 1968 through 2006, the median price of an existing home never fell on a year-to-year basis. So, we are in uncharted waters here.
Then, according to former Fed Chairman Greenspan, came the delayed effect of the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the price of your house soared to 469% of your income – a record high for the 1968 through 2006 period. Assuming, optimistically, that your income increases by 4.05% in 2007 and 2008, the rate at which your income increased in 2006, by what percentage would the price of your house have to fall from its 2006 level to get the price/income ratio back to 337% average in 2008?
The answer is 21.7%.
From 1968 through 2006, the median price of an existing home never fell on a year-to-year basis. So, we are in uncharted waters here.
EleBlog take: According to the economists I saw at the NAHB press conference on 2/13/08, housing prices were down (national average) about 8% in 2007. If Kasriel's figuring above is somehow related to reality, we're not yet halfway home.
25 Feb, 2008
Pre-Fab Conduit
According to the article, Skanska has implemented this pre-work stretching thing on all of its projects across the U.S.
- - - - -
Then the 964-word piece gets to Rosendin Electric and pre-fab. As regular visitors know, I've become enthusiastic about construction pre-fabrication (adding a category on that this year, in which this is the 10th post in two months):
"We have used 1,500 linear feet of pre-fabricated conduit duct bank. It was configured on-grade, at eye level, rather than having to work at connecting it in a 6-foot trench. This has saved our construction efforts a significant amount of time on this project," he said. The pre-fab conduits are in clusters ranging from three conduits up to 20 conduits in 40-foot sections.
Parker foresees the construction industry moving more in the direction of pre-fabrication. "Now that we have computer modeling/designing, we are able to look at individual components of construction. Rosendin Electric, our electrical subcontractor, was able to model from the computer, and from the model build templates by which to pre-fabricate things."
25 Feb, 2008
Electricity Industry Transformation (?)
From the press release: I've been telling people that PHEVs are moving higher on the U.S. utility agenda. Here's more evidence:
Kuhn said the widespread commercialization of plug-in hybrid vehicles
stands to play a significant role in reducing the carbon footprint,
with electric utilities playing an important role. "A recent
comprehensive study by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and
the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) found that the emergence
of plug-in hybrids would result in significant reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions and improve overall air quality with only a small
increase in electricity demand. Plug-in hybrids have the further
benefit of adding to our nation's energy security as well," he said.
25 Feb, 2008
Power Prices: HIGHER
“I don’t see pricing going down anytime in the near future."
“Just about all signs point to higher power prices for many years to come."
“Just about all signs point to higher power prices for many years to come."
And then there's this:
In past decades
state regulators have funded some efficiency projects, by paying for
upgrades or reminding people to turn the lights off. Some executives
say this approach is all wrong.
James Rogers, chief executive of Duke Energy Corp., said most people don’t think about their utility bills all the time.
“It’s back of mind. We spend a lot of money trying to make it front of mind, and that’s a failed approach,” he said.
He’d prefer to see regulators come up with a way to pay utilities for saving a kilowatt of power, rather than just for producing a kilowatt of power.
25 Feb, 2008
Phantom Loads
Because OFF doesn’t always mean OFF, a huge amount of energy is being
wasted by phantom loads. For individuals the cost of phantom loads just
for a resident may add between $7-20 to their monthly utility cost.
Considering all users- residential or commercial, there’s an
opportunity to design products differently to reduce and even eliminate
phantom loads. Wasted power caused by phantom loads account for as much
as 15% of the bill and perhaps even higher in office environments.
25 Feb, 2008
Spam Works
Well, now someone has done a study and found:
50% of those surveyed have "checked their junk mail oin a daily basis"
16% have made a purchase in the past year as the result of opening a marketing e-mail solicitation.
. . . and, much worse
16% have made a purchase in the past year as the result of opening a marketing e-mail solicitation.
I believe this means it will NEVER end.
25 Feb, 2008
Green: Audio + PDF
The 74p PDF includes a lot to think about -- whether you work for a corporation or just buy stuff. Consider this snippet:
A significant risk in all of this is the potential
for members of the industry to portray
products as green when they really aren’t.
That’s why it is “just so important,” says
Teradata’s Gnau, that companies actually
“deliver” on their promises. “If you say it is
green, then you should be able to pin that on
something measurable,” says Gnau. “If you
just slap a green label on a product when it
doesn’t deserve it, people will see through
that very quickly, and it will hurt you in the
long run.”
for members of the industry to portray
products as green when they really aren’t.
That’s why it is “just so important,” says
Teradata’s Gnau, that companies actually
“deliver” on their promises. “If you say it is
green, then you should be able to pin that on
something measurable,” says Gnau. “If you
just slap a green label on a product when it
doesn’t deserve it, people will see through
that very quickly, and it will hurt you in the
long run.”
25 Feb, 2008
'Secret' Benefits of Energy Conservation
A. extended equipment life;
B.
reduced maintenance costs;
C.
reduced risk to energy supply price spikes; and
D. the
ability to sell carbon credits.
E. enhanced public image; and
F.
reduced risk to environmental/legal costs.
This article is worth reading, and worth calling to the attention of others.
22 Feb, 2008
'Free' Energy for 'Tiny Gadgets'
Back in June, I clipped an article: "Powering The Revolutin: Tiny gadgets pick up energy for free." It's about "harvesting" of vibrations to power small devices; I'd actually heard of this before I read about it, in one or more presentations about wireless devices.
The problem with wireless devices (I learned in those presentations) was that they needed power to work, and would eventually -- perhaps every 5 years -- need to have their batteries replaced. Proponents of such devices realized that was going to be BAD, as they hoped to have so many wireless items out in the world that replacing the batteries would become a major Pain In The Butt.
So . . . how about this? Many wireless devices are attached to walls. Walls naturally vibrate. How about harvesting the energy from the vibrations to power the devices? OF COURSE, there's not a lot of energy in those vibrations. But the devices didn't NEED that much energy!!!
Read this 2,159-word story, originally published 6/2/07 in Science News, for a lot more.
[Yes, this kind of "goes with" the knee-brace/energy story that ran a few days ago . . . that's what made me think of this article and go looking for it]
22 Feb, 2008
Top Automation Suppliers
Note also that JimPinto.com eNews #243 is posted as a podcast as well.
| Company | Global | N. America |
 Siemens |
1 |
6 |
| ABB |
2 |
3 |
| Schneider |
3 |
5 |
| Emerson Process |
4 |
1 |
| Rockwell Automation |
5 |
2 |
| Honeywell Process |
6 |
4 |
| Yokogawa |
7 |
19 |
| Omron |
8 |
18 |
| Invensys |
9 |
8 |
| Mitsubishi |
10 |
28 |
| GE |
11 |
7 |
| Danaher |
12 |
9 |
22 Feb, 2008
Peak Oil Outlook
This chart is from Matthew Simmons, apparently. I've been a big fan of his ever since reading his (incredibly detailed) book -- Twilight In The Desert . . . which is about the realities of the future of oil production in Saudi Arabia (based on research, not mouthing off!).
From the SeekingAlpha.com piece's conclusion:
Simmons maintains that the difference between peak
oil believers and peak oil optimists is that the former focus on flow
rates and the latter on hydrocarbons in the ground. Industry people
tend to believe that there are plenty of hydrocarbons around and
increasing flow rates is a relatively straightforward matter of
applying sufficient capital to get the hydrocarbons into production and
that higher oil prices will do the trick.
The clear implications of the graph of IEA projected flows and the actually less optimistic graph by Sadad Al-Husseini - neither of which are thought of as peak oil adherents - is that there will be a serious supply problem by 2011.
EleBog take: This is going to -- eventually -- accelerate the government's role in our lives (on the energy side, at least) . . . and electricity's role in transportation. Among other things, the likely end results (by 2015 or long before) will include:1 -- government regulation of how existing buildings are run and how much energy they use. Right now, many cities are putting regulations into place requiring that newly constructed buildings be "Green" and featured reduced energy use (lower energy use per sq. ft.). But the opportunity to make an impact on this is in EXISTING buildings . . . I gave a presentation yesterday, for example, that said there are 5M existing buildings, of which only 10% have direct digital control of their HVAC systems.
2 -- I also see an incredible boom in PHEVs -- plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. This will enable people doing "in-town" driving to use electricity to power their cars.
There's more. We'll get to it over time. One thing is certain: If oil is $100 a barrel today -- which a quasi-recession going on in the U.S. -- we can't imagine what the price will be (given that the details in the SeekingAlpha.com piece becomes facts over time). $150 a barrel? $200 a barrel? What's your guess for 2012?
22 Feb, 2008
Iron Prices to Soar
From the macro standpoint such a bold
price hike on such a basic commodity will send shock waves throughout
the supply chain. I can't think of anything except water and oil, that
have the broad stroke importance of iron.
22 Feb, 2008
Copper Surprise
An old saying: "Copper is the metal with a Ph.D in Economics." If copper's price is telling us something, it's that there is no damn recession (at least worldwide) right about now!
To check copper prices today (any day) -- go here.
20 Feb, 2008
Cabling Basics (Resi)
20 Feb, 2008
Jan. Construction Starts
New construction starts increased 8% in January to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of $551.3 billion, according to McGraw-Hill
Construction, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies. After a weak
December, substantial gains were reported for nonresidential building
and nonbuilding construction (public works and electric utilities), as
both of these major sectors were lifted by the start of several very
large projects.
In contrast, residential building witnessed further erosion in January, continuing the steady downward trend that has been present over the past two years.
In contrast, residential building witnessed further erosion in January, continuing the steady downward trend that has been present over the past two years.
OK. Then I page down to the bottom of the page (as always) -- to find the UNadjusted data. These are the raw data gathered by McGraw-Hill; the dollar figures are in Billions:
YEAR-TO-DATE CONSTRUCTION
STARTS
Unadjusted Totals, In Millions of Dollars
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
What do you notice? Well, nonresidential IS up, isn't it? But the CRATER that residential construction is leaving for us is stunning. It's huge. It's astounding.
MOST IMPORTANTLY (to the EleBlog) . . . nonbuilding construction is down. Hey, local tax dollars are declining.
I'm not sure how a 19% decline in total construction gets teased into an 8% "seasonally adjusted" increase. I'm nowhere near as smart as Bob Murray, the chief economist for MHC.
But for now, I'm going to go with the table that MHC provides, rather than the adjusted data. BOTTOM LINE: This is NOT a good report!
20 Feb, 2008
Convergence: Green, Sex + LEDs
I also like the quote: "There is power to be harvested from various places in the body." Here's what it took me:
- - - - -
I expect the future to bring "GREEN Sex" advertisements . . . it's the ultimate Convergence:
" . . . use Viagra, have copious amounts of nonstop sex AND at the same time generate enough electricity to power all of the LEDs in your house for a week
". . . save enough money to pay for your pills!"
Headline: Light Up Your Life -- In More Ways Than One!
I'm not kidding!". . . save enough money to pay for your pills!"
Headline: Light Up Your Life -- In More Ways Than One!
20 Feb, 2008
Electrical System Info
DISCLAIMER: I take no responsibility for the information presented; verify before using it!
Here's Jim Burke's preface (bolding from Joe):
There have been little tidbits of information I have accumulated over the past 40 years that have helped me understand and analyze distribution systems. I have pinned them to my wall, taped them to my computer, stuffed them in my wallet and alas, copied them for my students.
Much of them are hard, if not impossible, to find in any reference book. A large percentage of them could also be classified as personal opinion so they should be used carefully. For whatever, I hope they are as useful to you as they have been to me.
Over the many years, this document has taken on a life of its own. There have been many suggestions and much help from so many distribution engineers that it is impossible to thank all of you. From the new topics such as “stray voltage” and “grounding” to the many surveys we’ve all done together (lightning, loading, etc) and finally the less serious sections like “Ways We Scare Ourselves” and “Airline Cabin Announcements”, this has been a lot of fun to work on.
Much of them are hard, if not impossible, to find in any reference book. A large percentage of them could also be classified as personal opinion so they should be used carefully. For whatever, I hope they are as useful to you as they have been to me.
Over the many years, this document has taken on a life of its own. There have been many suggestions and much help from so many distribution engineers that it is impossible to thank all of you. From the new topics such as “stray voltage” and “grounding” to the many surveys we’ve all done together (lightning, loading, etc) and finally the less serious sections like “Ways We Scare Ourselves” and “Airline Cabin Announcements”, this has been a lot of fun to work on.
20 Feb, 2008
Copper Says No Recession....
Copper says there isn't (so, for that matter, does the price of oil).
Here -- from www.kitcometals.com -- is the past 24 hours of copper prices. The damn thing hit $3.70 per pound today. That's a lot closer to the near-$4.00 high of April 2006 than it is to some kind of recession low!!!
20 Feb, 2008
What The EC Can/Can't Do
The interviewees are remodelers, of course. The article is "Keeping Up With Home Technology: Outsourcing Allows Remodelers to Manage Homeowners' Needs."
Note that the thing runs 5,000 words!!!
From the piece:
Q: Do either one of you
have or look at an electrical contractor who will do high voltage and
low voltage both? Have you seen combinations and stayed away from them,
David?
Apparently, the idea is that ECs can't do some of the technology installations. "We wouldn't allow the electrician to get involved beyond the lighting" is an interesting concept. On the one hand, as a big fan of the electrical contractor (look at the URL on this site!) . . . I'm integrally opposed to the idea that a contractor and his professional electricians can't handle any part of the low-voltage work. David: Yes. We've seen combinations and yes, we do have electricians who will, on a limited basis, handle elements of this. The only other element beside the electrical would be specific to lighting control. Beyond that, there is nothing else that they would handle or that we would expect them to include, for the exact reasons Harry mentioned. It's too speciali
We've run into exactly the same situation and we've done exactly the same thing. What is it to run seven speaker wires in a 700 square foot home theater area for the homeowner's Lifestream television 7.1 system surround-sound only to come and find out that the people they bought the speakers from for in-wall and ceiling installation say, "No, we should have had this or that." We'd never get big enough to want to do it. We wouldn't allow the electrician to get involved beyond the lighting. In some cases, all the client is really looking for is the lighting control.On the other hand: At least this remodeler gives the lighting piece of a home technology installation to the electrical contractor! Increasingly, in home tech work, the EC is being aced out.
18 Feb, 2008
Bottom Falls Out Of Market
San Diego County median home prices fell last month to their lowest
level in four years with nearly half of existing homes selling at a
loss in the face of mounting foreclosures, DataQuick Information
Systems reported yesterday.
You can go to the newspaper (click on the colored type) -- or just study this graphic:
18 Feb, 2008
Green Collar Jobs
. . . remember one truth of economics; if I rob Peter to pay Paul, I haven’t
gained any economic benefit or created any new jobs. I’ve just
transferred the jobs from Peter’s company to Paul’s. If I take tax
revenues and utility payments to subsidize one form of green
technology, there’s less money left over for other investments. It’s
only if these investments result in greater productivity do I gain any
new jobs.
Common sense wins -- all the time. BUT: Sometimes it takes a while for the final hand to be dealt. Here, Yudelson is jumping the gun. Bully for him!18 Feb, 2008
Ugly Deficit Graphic
18 Feb, 2008
TV Ads - IBEW Maine
18 Feb, 2008
Products - NAHB Show
17 Feb, 2008
Green Standard from NAHB
From my listening to the press event and other discussion of this, the standard-creation effort seems laudable. The idea is to have something better than the Guideline (see immediately previous post for a link). The further idea is to put in place something that municipalities (towns, cities, counties, and even states) can adopt as their requirements.
Apparently, more than 150 local governments have put some sort of green homebuilding regulations in place. Many seem to have used the LEED guidelines from USGBC . . . some of them adapting LEED-NC (which is about commercial buildings, I think) for homes. This led to the NAHB effort on the standard.
However, NAHB didn't rush into this. By choosing to use the ANSI process -- which is painstaking -- NAHB went about this "the right way." Supposedly, the standard will be finalized in Q2 (which means by June 30th).
Apparently, NAHB had 1,300 comments when it released a first draft of the standard, months ago. More recently, it took in 600 comments on the 2nd draft (roughly half of which came from the 42-member committee, which -- under the ANSI-specified process -- includes representatives of various concerned parties, including the public). Under the ANSI process, the committee has to take up each comment (ONE AT A TIME) . . . read it, think about it, and officially "react" to it.
As I noted -- laudable.
- - - - -
EleBlog side note: I try not to be morbid; being of Sicilian descent can lead to that, I've learned in 54 years on this planet. But during the press conference on the standard, I had a twinge of regret -- I am truly sorry that Brooke Stauffer, the former NECA executive (and friend of mine) is dead. I could really have used his input on whether the standard itself has value, and how well the NAHB people followed the ANSI process (in which he was expert). I'm sorry to interject this here . . . it isn't in my notes . . . but this is precisely the kind of thing with which one (me!) could rely on the intelligence of Brooke Stauffer.
17 Feb, 2008
NAHB's Green Program
-- in May, NAHB will have its 10th annual Green Building Conference. That's laudable, isn't it?
-- 3 years ago, NAHB put together Green Building guidelines. The online document -- a 186-page PDF -- carries a 2006 copyright. Click here to download all 186 pages.
-- now, NAHB has put a certification program -- featuring, most importantly, 3rd-party verifiers -- in place. There's a website to go with this, of course -- www.nahbgreen.org.
I sat through a press event on this. Here are some thoughts:
1. The program has some mandatory things (like energy-efficiency requirements), but it's flexible and adaptable. This is either good or bad. The builder and homeowner can work together to spec out a house that scores HIGH or non-high on the NAHB's green building program rankings.
My fear: It's very damn complicated. Some of the options will probably be free, and some low-cost; some will come at a high cost. Which is which? You won't find that on the NAHB site or in the program -- it would be against federal law for NAHB to "set" prices. So the devil really IS in the details here. Each builder will have his/her/its own price for each option.
I envision a nightmare.
2. The 3rd-party verifiers need to be trained and certified by the NAHB Research Center. I think this part of the program is very good. There might be a short-term chicken-and-egg problem here -- not enough verifiers until there's demand, blahblahblah. But this is the right thing.
3. Bob Jones, an NAHB veep (a homebuilder elected to the national leadership), led the press conference. I was most impressed with one thing he said: Sooner or later, there won't be any Green anything. Green building is going to be mainstream. No one will need to request an environmentally suitable home -- this stuff will be a standard offering of home builders.
The specific comment was that most builders no longer say they "build to code." Of course they build to the code. If you said you were building to code, it would sound (these days) as if you were doing the absolute minimum.
4. NAHB didn't think everything through in preparing for this press conference. There is a pre-existing green standard out there -- the LEED-H program from the U.S. Green Building Council. Many questions from the assembled media (in fact, it might have been most) were focused on trying to differentiate the new NAHB Green Program from LEED-H.
NAHB appeared unprepared for this. It wasn't ugly, but it was confusing as heck.
5. Finally, I looked (in vain) for the info on the bottom of the press release on these green things for the words "printed on recycled paper." It wouldn't have been impossible (or very expensive) to arrange to do this for this event!!!
17 Feb, 2008
Green Thoughts from NAHB
a. The new GREEN program.
b. Progress report on the NAHB's GREEN standard, which was more interesting than I had originally thought.
NAHB staffers and top elected officials worse Green T-shirts on 2/14, Green Day -- and some of them sported these badges, too.
I'm going to get into the Program and the Standard in the next 2 posts. However, right here I'd like to comment on Green Day.
- - - - -
EleBlog Take:
If you're going to go green, be sincere. Do some things that are good for the environment. I thought NAHB botched this in a big way. I'm sorry to be critical, but some stuff is easy to do -- and it doesn't necessarily fall into the category of Missionary Work. Among the things overlooked, in my opinion -- the simple things -- were:
a. The Orlando CC had containers for the recycling of cans and bottles all over the place. But there was no place to recycle PAPER. And as with any convention and trade show, this one featured One Heck of a Lot of Paper. I thought this was a major oversight.
b. Back in the 1980s, when I was in the waste industry, I went to conferences at which the sponsors asked you to deposit your badge holders in a barrel on your way out of the event. This isn't a new idea. Yet the NAHB did not ask anyone to do this. The big thing here is that you get a 3-fer-1 when you do this:
-- you keep plastics out of the waste stream.
-- NAHB, which holds numerous events, could have re-used the badges (re-use is better, even, than recycling!).
-- you involve each and every attendee in a personal (if extremely minor) effort to be Green.
-- NAHB, which holds numerous events, could have re-used the badges (re-use is better, even, than recycling!).
-- you involve each and every attendee in a personal (if extremely minor) effort to be Green.
c. Finally, while I didn't attend all of the remodeling events, I didn't see anything on the program -- nor hear anything in the sessions -- about the recycling of fluorescent lamps (including CFLs). The CFLs -- when thrown in the trash -- are hazardous waste (because of the mercury within them). If you want to present yourself as GREEN, you might at least mention that people (including remodelers) should do the right thing with this stuff! I heard several people (speaking at various sessions) talk about using CFLs, but no one mentioned the care needed in getting rid of them.
17 Feb, 2008
Housing Forecast - Slipping
I had to wait until I got home to dig up his previous forecasts. Here's a quick index to revisions made by Seiders in the past FEW months:
2008 Single-Family Housing Starts
10/30/07 931,000
1/24/08 781,000
2/6/08 769,000
1/24/08 781,000
2/6/08 769,000
NOTES:
a. This is a 17.4% drop in Seiders' forecast in 14 weeks.
b. Single-family starts in 2005 were 1,719,000 and in 2007 were 1,040,000.
c. The forecast decline from LAST YEAR is 26%
2008 New Single-Family Home Sales
This is actual sales of newly constructed homes by home builders (as opposed to sales of existing homes).
10/30/07 781,000
1/24/08 671,000
2/6/08 632,000
1/24/08 671,000
2/6/08 632,000
a. Single-family home sales in 2006 were 1,049,000. They peaked in '05 at 1,279,000.
b. If the '08 forecast proves accurate, the drop from the peak -- just three years earlier -- will be 50%.
c. The change in Seiders' forecast from Oct. 30 to Feb. 6 is -23.6%.
- - - - -
INFO ONLINE
Seiders' presentation -- and those of two guest economists -- are here. Unfortunately, the Seiders PDF omits the most important page of the damn thing -- the data page. I have that only because I was in the room and got the full handout. By the way, one of the other 2 speakers -- David Berson -- was actually MORE negative than Seiders!
ALSO: NAHB's economics dept. posted three other presentations for download -- on consumer preferences, the multifamily outlook, and remodeling. You can download PDFs of those here.
- - - - -
EleBlog Take:
It's a bit scary when a guy with integrity, who has worked in the home building market as an economist for two decades, revises his forecast -- downward -- and BIG downward -- in a 3 1/2-month time period. The reaction here (from me) is . . . Look Out Below!
17 Feb, 2008
NAHB Convention Coverage
1 -- I wanted to see, with my own eyes, what the "buzz" was in the housing market.
2 -- NAHB set Feb. 14 (Valentine's Day) as it's "Green Day." I wanted to sit in on some of those events.
3 -- There were 2 shows in Orlando on housing in Feb-Mar -- this one and Electronic House Expo in March. As both were going to on my ticket (i.e., no client would pay my way to either) -- I allowed myself ONE, but not both. Money matters!
2 -- NAHB set Feb. 14 (Valentine's Day) as it's "Green Day." I wanted to sit in on some of those events.
3 -- There were 2 shows in Orlando on housing in Feb-Mar -- this one and Electronic House Expo in March. As both were going to on my ticket (i.e., no client would pay my way to either) -- I allowed myself ONE, but not both. Money matters!
So I showed up. There will be a few blogs after this one on what I saw and heard. If you want to get more on NAHB from the source, here are other places you can go:
HANDOUTS from seminars -- some had 'em, and some didn't. Some were good, some were inexplicable if you weren't there. You can download handouts from seminars (in PDF) from http://www.buildershow.com/Events/EducationalSeminars.aspx
You'll have to figure out how to use the seminar selector. There's a box you can check (before you search) that says "show only seminars iwth handouts." You can pick by topic.
PRESS RELEASES -- NAHB offers a bunch of 'em, here.
15 Feb, 2008
Things Get Scarier
Three telling indicators:
- From
the
2/14 Wall Street
The Port Authority of New
York and
- CMBS Issuance in January = Zero
January appears to be the
first month without issuance under the current market format, or since the
Resolution Trust Corp stopped issuing CMBS in 1995, he said.
http://blog.retailtrafficmag.com/retail_traffic_court/2008/01/30/cmbs-issuance-for-january-000/
Note: CMBS = commercial mortgage-backed securities.
I'm a regular reader of Retail Traffic magazine's electronic offerings. From my reading of the commercial Real estate market, this is scaring the crap out of some people. It should, right?
- Single-Family Housing starts -- Drop of 55% from Peak to (Latest Forecast) Bottom....(????)
2004 actual: 1,604,000
2005 actual: 1,719,000
2006 actual: 1,474,000
2007 estimated: 1,040,000
2008 forecast: 769,000
Data – including estimate
+ forecast – from Natl. Assn. of Home Builders. Updated per David Seiders (chief
economist) handout at press conference 2/13/08 in
I would guess the 2007 estimate is pretty good. The forecast for this year calls for a 26% drop. If Seiders' forecast is correct, the drop from peak (2005) to anticipated trough is 55%.
(More)15 Feb, 2008
Wireless Lighting Control
WiseLight automatically enables commercial and
government municipal users to save energy and costs. This green energy
saving system automates scheduling, monitoring and control of outdoor
lighting applications such as recreational fields, parking lots,
billboards and other venues.
It's from a company called Kelly Space and Technology(!). The WiseLight system eliminates timer and photosensor inefficiencies and malfunctions and allows direct feedback to identify failed components, such as bulbs and fixtures, and initiates real-time customer-defined notifications for prompt repair.
The WiseLight hardware is installed between a lighting fixture and its power supply and operates lights only when needed or desired. The centralized command and control feature of the system enables users to monitor energy usage and control a single lamp or any combination of lamps via machine-to-machine wireless communications from a secure internet web site.
15 Feb, 2008
Prevailing Wage Lawsuit
In the first lawsuit of its kind, three construction workers are suing
an electrical contractor for back wages and more under Minnesota's
prevailing wage law, which dictates the hourly rate of pay for workers
on state-funded projects. The workers claim they were not paid what
they were owed.
The lawsuit against Cole's Electric in Owatonna names three plaintiffs, electricians Kyle Krienke, Cory Martinson and Jeremiah Johnson. The three did electrical work for Cole's and are seeking double the wages they claim were withheld and to compel the employer to comply fully with the law. Martinson is still employed by Cole's; the other two no longer work there.
The lawsuit against Cole's Electric in Owatonna names three plaintiffs, electricians Kyle Krienke, Cory Martinson and Jeremiah Johnson. The three did electrical work for Cole's and are seeking double the wages they claim were withheld and to compel the employer to comply fully with the law. Martinson is still employed by Cole's; the other two no longer work there.
15 Feb, 2008
DCs Future: Grim?
"At least 70% of the world's Global 1000 organizations will have to adapt their data centers during the next five years, especially those in the U.S., which has the highest concentration of data centers larger than 50,000 sq. ft. and older than seven years," the article says.
A quote from Rakesh Kumar of Gartner: "These legacy data centers were built to a design specification of about 100 to 150 watts per sq. ft. Current design needs are about 300 to 400 watts/sq. ft., and by 2011, this could rise to more than 600."
A quote from Rakesh Kumar of Gartner: "These legacy data centers were built to a design specification of about 100 to 150 watts per sq. ft. Current design needs are about 300 to 400 watts/sq. ft., and by 2011, this could rise to more than 600."
15 Feb, 2008
Hackers Cut Power
15 Feb, 2008
Paint-On Solar Cells
"Someday homeowners will even be able to print sheets of these solar
cells with inexpensive home-based inkjet printers. Consumers can then
slap the finished product on a wall, roof or billboard to create their
own power stations."
Here's the original release (from the New Jersey Institute of Technology).
15 Feb, 2008
Calculating Fault Currents
While the tables aren't that easy to read, you could no doubt upsize them and make them readable. The article printed out at 9 pages on my printer, of which 7 consisted solely of tables!
11 Feb, 2008
New Trend: True Worries
- Denial: The initial stage: "It can't be happening."
- Anger: "Why me? It's not fair."
- Bargaining: "Just let me live to see my children graduate."
- Depression: "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"
- Acceptance: "It's going to be OK.
A. An article in the Houston Chronicle on experts pronouncing on the housing market. One of the two experts quoted is Robert Shiller -- a hero of mine. He's the guy who called the stock market insanely overvalued in 1999, just before the bubble popped. The article isn't that long, but you might not make it to the real gold . . . these two paragraphs from the very end of the thing:
Conversations with world leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month convinced Shiller that officials are more worried about the subprime fallout than they are letting on.
"In face-to-face conversations, they were expressing a lot more doubts than you were seeing in the newspapers," Shiller said. "I think it's instinctive for many people to want to show confidence, but I heard a lot of worries."
B. Every week, I read Doug Nolan's Credit Bubble Bulletin. Every week, without fail -- it's a weekend ritual. It a very long FREE Internet posting, consisting of news items Noland has clipped during the week -- ones that he thinks are particularly revealing. What follows that is analysis from Noland.The column is new every week, and if you are reading this BEFORE 2/15, this link will take you to the latest column (not the one to which I am referring). Instead, if you're late -- go to the Archive and look for the first coluimn posted in February.
Noland has NOT been in denial. But this week's final paragraph was, to me -- as a regular reader (going back to 2000!) -- particularly revealing. I've highlighted the words that set off an atomic bomb in my brain, but you might do well to read the whole damn thing (by following one of the links). Note that I've divided the final paragraph a bit (to help readability) and that the boldfacing below is MINE.
Going forward, I expect a foundering leveraged speculating
community to be At The Heart of Deepening Monetary Disorder. The initial victims appear the fragile global
equities market Bubbles and the U.S. Corporate Credit market. Forced deleveraging of hedge fund corporate
debt and derivatives is in the process of creating a massive overhang of
securities to sell, in the process profoundly curtailing Credit Availability
and Marketplace Liquidity throughout.
The ramifications for our finance-based Bubble Economy are momentous.
As an economic and financial analyst (as opposed to “fear-monger”), I feel it is imperative to highlight that it is more “technically” accurate to categorize the unfolding scenario in the historical context of an economic “depression” rather than “recession.” This is certainly not shaping up as a short-term inventory-led economic adjustment or “mid-cycle” slowdown.
Instead, we have now entered the very initial stages of what will likely prove a deep, prolonged and arduous adjustment to the underlying structure of our Credit and economic systems.
The ramifications for our finance-based Bubble Economy are momentous.
As an economic and financial analyst (as opposed to “fear-monger”), I feel it is imperative to highlight that it is more “technically” accurate to categorize the unfolding scenario in the historical context of an economic “depression” rather than “recession.” This is certainly not shaping up as a short-term inventory-led economic adjustment or “mid-cycle” slowdown.
Instead, we have now entered the very initial stages of what will likely prove a deep, prolonged and arduous adjustment to the underlying structure of our Credit and economic systems.
(More)
11 Feb, 2008
08 Buildings Outlook
EleBlog take: I'm pretty sure ALL forecasts are going to be OFF this year, as things are changing . . . rapidly. But this is no doubt still worth a read.
11 Feb, 2008
Home Technology Alliance
The Home Technology Alliance (HTA) is a partnership between NAHB and
the Custom Electronic Design Installation Association (CEDIA) that was
formed to position the housing industry to effectively meet the growing
homebuyer demand for home technology and provide the maximum return on
investment in the new home building and remodeling process.
On NAHB's small site for the HTA, I found a 39-page PDF -- a report on research into how NAHB members see the Electronic Systems Contractor.
I've scanned the thing (not yet made it through) -- seems interesting.
You might also check out NAHB's HTA home page.
11 Feb, 2008
PreFab House - Green
11 Feb, 2008
China - Power User of Power
"Gu Junyuan, chief engineer of the electricity commission, said total demand for electricity in China increased 20.2% annually between 2001 and 2007. Installed capacity, on the othe hand, grew by about 18.5% a year over the period."
Whew!
Anything that grows at 20% a year doubles in 3.6 years.
Does that mean electricity demand in Red China will have about quadrupled between the beginning of 2000 and the end of 2008?
Wow!
10 Feb, 2008
Improving The Building Experience
. . . it's a short, interesting read.
10 Feb, 2008
EC Reaches 100th Anniversary
10 Feb, 2008
Carbon Capture Baloney -- II
That truth: The cost of CCS was OUT OF SIGHT. There was no prospect for the thing to succeed; there's not that much money in the world.
Now, a 2/1 news item on ClimateBiz.com says the the U.S. DoE is scrapping plans for "the world's largest clean-coal power plant and carbon sequestration facility." Why? "The costs had doubled since it was originalliy conceived."
10 Feb, 2008
Connectors Cut Install Time
By redesigning its time-saving Liquidtight ST Series of cable and
conduit connectors, Appleton is aggressively targeting OEM and harsh
industrial applications that require electrical connections be
protected from water, dust, oil, grease, fumes and other hostile
contaminants.
Now available pre-assembled with an integrated KO sealing ring, the connectors are up to 25% faster to install than competitors' connectors.
Now available pre-assembled with an integrated KO sealing ring, the connectors are up to 25% faster to install than competitors' connectors.
10 Feb, 2008
Tips For Techs
10 Feb, 2008
Green REIT
10 Feb, 2008
Modular Electrified Wall Panel
Headline: "Indiana Inventors Develop Modular Furniture Environment Electrified Wall Panel."
Abstract:
An electrified wall panel in a modular furniture environment includes a
plurality of multi-port electrical distribution blocks diversely located
throughout the panel. Certain ones of the multi-port electrical
distribution blocks are fixed to wall panel frame members and other ones
of the multi-port electrical distribution blocks are free of the wall
panel.
A plurality of jumper cables, each having connectors at opposite cable ends are adapted to mate with any one of the multi-port electrical distribution block ports. The cables electrically interconnect the distribution blocks to form one complete circuit. There are a plurality of electrical receptacles, each having an electrical connector near one end which are electrically coupled to a port of a corresponding multi-port electrical distribution block.
The system is assembled by fixing a jumper mounting bracket to a jumper cable near one end of the jumper cable. The jumper mounting bracket is attached to a support member. A modular electrical component such as an electrical receptacle is electrically connected to the power distribution block and is mechanically connected to the jumper mounting bracket thereby stabilizing the power distribution system on the support member.
There's a lot more at the page to which the link above takes you. A plurality of jumper cables, each having connectors at opposite cable ends are adapted to mate with any one of the multi-port electrical distribution block ports. The cables electrically interconnect the distribution blocks to form one complete circuit. There are a plurality of electrical receptacles, each having an electrical connector near one end which are electrically coupled to a port of a corresponding multi-port electrical distribution block.
The system is assembled by fixing a jumper mounting bracket to a jumper cable near one end of the jumper cable. The jumper mounting bracket is attached to a support member. A modular electrical component such as an electrical receptacle is electrically connected to the power distribution block and is mechanically connected to the jumper mounting bracket thereby stabilizing the power distribution system on the support member.
07 Feb, 2008
'Kill A Watt' Product Line
Electricity bills are rising. Now you can cut down on costs and find out what appliances are actually worth keeping plugged in. Simply connect these appliances to the Kill A Watt EZ™, and it will assess how efficient they really are. Large LCD display will count consumption by the Kill-o-watt hour, same as your local utility. You can calculate your electrical expenses by the day, week, month, even an entire year!
The Energy Information Administration found Americans use 60% more electricity today than they did 20 years ago. Some examples of the amount of energy you use and how much it costs you are in the following examples:
- iPod Docking Station – Uses three watts charging and five when it's playing music. This costs you a penny a day!
- Big Screen TV – When the TV is on it can use 210 watts, when off 64. It costs you 11 cents a day just have the TV plugged in at your house!
- Game Systems – Can use 2 watts when the system is off but uses 145 when it's on. This costs you about one penny an hour!
- Digital Video Recorder – This can pull 83 watts all day long. That means just having one of these plugged in the wall in your home can cost you 15 cents a day!
07 Feb, 2008
Remote Monitoring: Meters & Breakers
Remote monitoring extends beyond low-voltage switchgear to MCCs, circuit breakers, feeders, tie breakers, transformers, busway, panelboards – anything in the plant’s electrical distribution system. “All electrical equipment can be monitored,” said Jane Barber, product manager, GE Consumer & Industrial. “It’s a matter of having sensors fed to devices monitoring the necessary parameters. Each type of equipment has sensors and devices suited specifically to the application facilitating remote communication.”
Barber said sensors for current and voltage provide the basic input to devices used for protection and/or metering and monitoring, as well as status of the power system. Intelligent remote monitoring and power management systems use voltage, current, status and temperature to derive hundreds of useful parameters to help plant managers stay on top of what their electrical systems are doing.
“There are various levels of monitoring,” Barber noted. “There is the basic monitoring of current, voltage and possibly other conditions such as temperature. Another level of sophistication is the ability to monitor and report the actions of protective devices. Consequently, this level requires more intelligence at the protective device level.”
07 Feb, 2008
Prefab, Modular + Green
For now, take a look at this 572-word posting on GreenOptions.com on Prefabrication and Modularity. Here's what the writer says, on the most basic level:
When you think of modular furniture, it doesn’t seem very sturdy,
huh? But in fact, many of us have all used it- you buy a
put-it-together-yourself desk, bring it home in a flat box, and
construct it in the intended room. Just think about how many more desks
can be shipped in one truckload in their deconstructed, flat form. Lots
more! This cuts shipping costs, emissions, total embodied energy…
Prefab homes are constructed in a similar way, just on a larger scale.
AndPrefab homes are constructed in a similar way, just on a larger scale.
Why choose prefab? Here is the skinny on the prefab eco accomplishments. Since the modules are constructed in a factory, a higher quality construction can be ensured than on site stick-built homes. The fasteners are accurately applied, materials are cut with more exactness, and since they have to withstand transport, everything is tighter and more secure. This extends the lifespan and cuts the upkeep.
Modular prefabrication also saves significant amounts on their waste. While 30-40% of the material from a standard home construction site is carted off to the dump, modular homes generate only about 2% waste. That is a pretty large gap. Additionally, since the duration of construction is shorter, the cost is lower!
07 Feb, 2008
Construction Spending, 2007
Now consider that the inflation rate is running at 4%, 5%, or 6% (real inflation in the real economy). I tend to lean toward the higher number, so for EleBlog purposes, construction last year was actually down 8% or more.
Private residential construction was down in 2007 by 18.3%. By a frickin' weird coincidence, private nonresidential construction was up 18.3%. While it's the same percentage, it's not the same number -- residential (at $524.15 billion) was a lot bigger than nonres ($349.82 billion).
EleBlog Note: I am right now gathering info for an article about what's happening in the commercial real estate (and construction) markets. It's not good.
07 Feb, 2008
Global Warming + Energy Efficiency
Global Warming & Your Business -- a look at GW from the perspective of electrical distributors.
EcoBuild Fall & A Sense Of Urgency -- thoughts upon attending conference sessions and walking the EcoBuild Fall trade show in Washington, D.C.
EcoBuild Fall & A Sense Of Urgency -- thoughts upon attending conference sessions and walking the EcoBuild Fall trade show in Washington, D.C.
07 Feb, 2008
CFL Brouhaha: Vox Populi
1 -- "I . . . gave thanks that Congress has the time and wisdom to help with the plumbing and lighting of my house."
2 -- "Even if one posits that the current furor over global warming is more hype than reality, replacing incandescents with CFLs still makes good sense."
3 -- "Our community has a progressive recycling program, but due to lack of funding, mercury and other hazardous items can be accepted only twice a year. Are we so naive to think that consumers will dispose of these bulbs appropriately? Instead, will they be put in household garbage . . . do we really have to use this technology?"
4 -- "These new bulbs also have that 60-cycle 'flicker' that can be debilitating to those who have vision defects . . . "
5 -- On lighting the interior of a refrigerator: "Where is the good to the environment if we have to stand there, fridge door open, while we wait for a CFL to illuminate?"
6 -- "In a small way, the eventual ban of the incandescent light bulb is another exaqmple of 'degrees of non-freedom' imposed upon the members of a democratic society."
7 -- "Especially in northern latitudes with summertime daylight until 9 p.m. or so, residential lighting is largely during the heating season. The extra heat from incandescent bulbs thus displays primary space heating . . . Much of the additional electricity for lighting is during off-peak and shoulder hours."
8 -- "Consumers aren't so smart when it comes to the environment."
2 -- "Even if one posits that the current furor over global warming is more hype than reality, replacing incandescents with CFLs still makes good sense."
3 -- "Our community has a progressive recycling program, but due to lack of funding, mercury and other hazardous items can be accepted only twice a year. Are we so naive to think that consumers will dispose of these bulbs appropriately? Instead, will they be put in household garbage . . . do we really have to use this technology?"
4 -- "These new bulbs also have that 60-cycle 'flicker' that can be debilitating to those who have vision defects . . . "
5 -- On lighting the interior of a refrigerator: "Where is the good to the environment if we have to stand there, fridge door open, while we wait for a CFL to illuminate?"
6 -- "In a small way, the eventual ban of the incandescent light bulb is another exaqmple of 'degrees of non-freedom' imposed upon the members of a democratic society."
7 -- "Especially in northern latitudes with summertime daylight until 9 p.m. or so, residential lighting is largely during the heating season. The extra heat from incandescent bulbs thus displays primary space heating . . . Much of the additional electricity for lighting is during off-peak and shoulder hours."
8 -- "Consumers aren't so smart when it comes to the environment."
As The EleBlog has its own opinions on CFLs -- and they've been expressed here (use the search feature!) -- it was interesting to read a smattering of viewpoints from folks who have the $ and time to read the WSJ. According to Wikipedia, the newspaper in 2006 had a worldwide paid print circulation of 2 million, with 931,000 online subscribers.
06 Feb, 2008
China: 'Quality Fade'
Here's an eye-opening section:
One of the problems facing China is that manufacturers continue to
engage in a practice I call "quality fade." This is the deliberate and
secret habit of widening profit margins through a reduction in the
quality of materials. Importers usually never notice what's happening;
downward changes are subtle but progressive. The initial production
sample is fine, but with each successive production run, a bit more of
the necessary inputs are missing.
What is maddening to importers is that quality fade often occurs in the last place an importer thinks to check. One American company had been importing a line of health and beauty care products for over a year when the cardboard boxes that held its product suddenly started collapsing under their own weight. There was no logical explanation for the collapse except quality fade, and the supplier in this case blamed sub-suppliers for replacing an acceptable cardboard box with ones that were inferior.
04 Feb, 2008
101 Years of Copper Prices
In 1907, according to what I've read and heard, things only settled down when J.P. Morgan (and his friends) stepped in. The earth shook. People in power freaked out. They discovered, in this panic, that the world relied for its economic stability on the good will of a small group of powerful men.
Here's a link to the book on Amazon.com (note that I am NOT associated with that site in any way).
The point: My reading in the book is where it gets into copper (for reasons not directly associated with electricity). I read last night that the price of copper fell from 24 cents a pound to 18 cents at one point in 1907.
Thus, I now know the price of copper in 1907. I'm using 24 cents. I used the BLS inflation calculator to do some math. Here's what I did:
a. I set the price at the further-back year on the BLS calculator -- 1913 -- to 24 cents.
b. I hit submit.
c. I got back the inflation-adjusted value in 2007 of 24 cents in 1913.
It's $5.03.
b. I hit submit.
c. I got back the inflation-adjusted value in 2007 of 24 cents in 1913.
It's $5.03.
That means that copper, even at today's $3.27/pound -- even at the $4.00 pound it came close to hitting in May 2006 -- was still, on an inflation-adjusted basis, nowhere near the 1907 price.
[If I set the 1913 price to 18 cents, it would come out to $3.77 in 2007's money.]
EleBlog take: TWO POINTS
1. A 100-year investment in copper got one NOWHERE. So much for the buy-and-hold theory, eh? Obviously, it does not apply to commodities. The time to buy copper (in perfect hindsight) was 2001, when the price was 65 cents. At today's $3.27, you'd be holding onto a 5-bagger right now.
2. A side note: The crash and panic of 1907 led to the formation of the Federal Reserve Board. I have often read about this; I bought the book so I could "read up" on the specifics. What I've read (in snippets in various articles) in the past was:
-- Morgan bailed out the world in 1907.
-- People in economic and politics circles started to think about this. Their thought was:
. . . what if there is no person like J.P. Morgan around next time?
. . . what if we can't find J.P. Morgan, or a person like him, the next time? Worldwide communication was still horrible back then.
. . . what if J.P. Morgan, or the next person like him, wants to extract a price next time (as in, I'll save the world if you make me King).
-- As a result, six years later, the U.S. government took its first-ever socialistic step . . . with the formation of the Fed. At least, that's how the story goes. Others (conspiracy theorists) say formation of the Fed actually just formalized the concentration of power (that in 1907 was unorganized and concentrated on just the one man).
Of course, I don't know any of #2 for a fact. I've just read references to it in short articles. That's why I'm reading the book!
FOR NOW, let's stick with this one concrete fact: If copper tops $5.03 per pound, it will be higher in 2008 (or whenever) that it was at the highs of 1907.
04 Feb, 2008
Holt In MD + VA - Next Week
04 Feb, 2008
EC Employment '07 - Prelim
However, the BLS has firmed up 2007 data. Subject to a revision for December's figures, the annual average of production workers employed in electrical contracting last year was 731,100, up 3.37%. The 2007 average is the highest since 2001 (in which the industry averaged 759,400 workers -- 1,000 more than the previous high, which was in 2000).
Is this great news? It's hard to imagine hanging a drape over this. 10 years ago -- in 1998 -- the year's average was 647,600. And 1998 was NOT a bad year for the vast majority of electrical contractors!
04 Feb, 2008
Construction Employment - Update
Note that I queried about the past seven years of employment of "production workers" in the construction industry. The data below are in thousands (which means you add 000 to each of the numers). So for January 2008, the figure is 5,360,000.
Yes, the change from 2006 to 2007 in the annual average is -- a big fat decline of 0.58%.
What happened, or -- what didn't happen?
a. The residential job losses fell significantly on illegal aliens. They weren't counted on the upside, and when they were jettisoned, they weren't counted as lost jobs (or unemployed people).
b. There were jobs created in the non-residential sector.
c. I believe the disease is spreading from residential to non-residential. But that is happening slowly.
b. There were jobs created in the non-residential sector.
c. I believe the disease is spreading from residential to non-residential. But that is happening slowly.
|
Year
|
Jan
|
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
Ann
|
|
1998
|
4258
|
4255
|
4303
|
4606
|
4818
|
5002
|
5132
|
5169
|
5096
|
5115
|
5031
|
4896
|
4807
|
|
1999
|
4530
|
4584
|
4641
|
4933
|
5133
|
5321
|
5435
|
5441
|
5387
|
5388
|
5333
|
5132
|
5105
|
|
2000
|
4870
|
4825
|
4991
|
5164
|
5326
|
5498
|
5593
|
5604
|
5530
|
5523
|
5416
|
5204
|
5295
|
|
2001
|
4920
|
4921
|
5044
|
5199
|
5408
|
5567
|
5640
|
5625
|
5544
|
5513
|
5389
|
5214
|
5332
|
|
2002
|
4908
|
4883
|
4934
|
5066
|
5234
|
5392
|
5438
|
5447
|
5383
|
5349
|
5265
|
5055
|
5196
|
|
2003
|
4729
|
4661
|
4741
|
4946
|
5157
|
5326
|
5391
|
5421
|
5381
|
5354
|
5268
|
5095
|
5123
|
|
2004
|
4804
|
4761
|
4909
|
5121
|
5338
|
5508
|
5609
|
5629
|
5568
|
5599
|
5518
|
5340
|
5309
|
|
2005
|
5026
|
5039
|
5160
|
5432
|
5637
|
5821
|
5891
|
5944
|
5890
|
5919
|
5898
|
5679
|
5611
|
|
2006
|
5464
|
5484
|
5587
|
5792
|
5995
|
6139
|
6194
|
6236
|
6129
|
6081
|
5957
|
5778
|
5903
|
|
2007
|
5537
|
5409
|
5587
|
5739
|
5951
|
6142
|
6187
|
6167
|
6081
|
6050
|
5912
|
5668(p)
|
5869(p)
|
|
2008
|
5360(p)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ADDITIONAL NOTES:
d. Compare the annual average for 2007 with
the annual average for 1998 -- or 2001. Construction had some mighty
good years in 1998-2001. Employment is UP. Are contractors making more
money? Are we THAT MUCH more inefficient? Has productivity fallen
through the floor?
e. I believe the answer on Productivity is
YES. Consider: Employment in construction was significantly higher than
you see here in 2004-5-6. How do I know that? The BLS has admitted it.
It says it didn't count the illegal aliens on the upside, and didn't
count their job losses on the downside. THIS MEANS THESE ILLEGAL PEOPLE
HAD JOBS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. Sorry to shout, but it's a big
point.
f. Final note: Compare January 2008 (a preliminary
number) with January 2007. There's a decline of 3.2% shown there -- the
biggest year-over-year decline in some time. Tentative conclusion:
Something is happening.
01 Feb, 2008
Electrical Foreman's Handbook
01 Feb, 2008
Podcast: Homes For Troops
[found thanks to www.buildingonline.com]
01 Feb, 2008
Nuclear's Water Crisis
January 23 – Associated Press (Mitch Weiss): “Nuclear
reactors across the southeastern U.S. could be forced to throttle back
or temporarily shut down later this year because drought is drying up
the rivers and lakes that supply power plants with the huge amounts of
cooling water they need to operate. Utility officials say such
shutdowns probably wouldn’t result in blackouts. But they could lead to
sharply higher electric bills for millions of Southerners…
'Water is the nuclear industry’s Achilles’ heel,’ said Jim Warren, executive director of N.C. Waste Awareness and Reduction Network… ‘You need a lot of water to operate nuclear plants.
"This is becoming a crisis.’”
'Water is the nuclear industry’s Achilles’ heel,’ said Jim Warren, executive director of N.C. Waste Awareness and Reduction Network… ‘You need a lot of water to operate nuclear plants.
"This is becoming a crisis.’”
01 Feb, 2008
Snow Causes Chaos (really!)
China has shut about 5% of
its coal-fired power plants, forcing 13 provinces to ration
electricity as snowfalls and transportation delays hamper
deliveries of the fuel.
The five biggest electricity producers have shut 90 power stations with combined capacity exceeding 20,000 megawatts in northern and central China, figures today from the State Grid Corp. of China show. Coal stockpiles at the plants have dropped below the ``caution line'' of three days' requirements.
From a 1/29 Bloomber.com item:PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia's
largest coal exporter, said prices of the commodity may rise
another 60 percent this year after quadrupling this decade. The
company's stock rose to a record.
Prices of coal used by power stations may climb to between $125 a metric ton and $150 a ton this year, Dileep Srivastava, Bumi's head of investor relations, told reporters today after a shareholders' meeting. The company's sales rose as much as 24 percent to $2.3 billion last year, he said. Indonesia is the world's second-largest exporter of thermal coal.
Coal at Australia's Newcastle port, Asia's benchmark, has
risen 80 percent the past 12 months and reached a record $93.70
in the week ended Jan. 25, according to McCloskey Group Ltd.
And from a 2/1 (today) item on Bloomberg.com:
Asian stocks rose, led by mining
companies, after China's worst snowstorms in 50 years halted
production and drove up prices of coal and zinc . . . BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company,
climbed and Korea Zinc Co. had its biggest gain in three years
after the price of the metal surged the most in nine months.
"The transport bottlenecks in China may lead to a short- term spike in commodity prices and that will benefit some mining companies,'' said Mark Tan, who helps oversee $3 billion in Asian equities at UOB Asset Management in Singapore.
AND, from the same item:China's benchmark CSI 300 has plunged 10 percent this week, its worst weekly performance since the measure was introduced in 2005.
Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., China's largest zinc smelter, halted its main production plants Jan. 29 because of power cuts and snowstorms, the company said today. Zhuzhou has shut down all of its zinc and lead plants. China was a net exporter of zinc in 2007 and supplies a third of the world's lead.
BHP gained 4.1 percent to A$38.55 in Australia. Korea Zinc, the world's second-biggest zinc refiner, climbed 15 percent to 124,500 won in Seoul, the largest jump since October 2004. Toho Zinc Co., a Tokyo-based smelter, surged 14 percent to 535 yen, the steepest gain since January 2004.
. . . A measure of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, including copper and nickel, added 2.7 percent yesterday. Copper advanced 2.7 percent, nickel rose 0.6 percent, and zinc increased 7 percent, the most for nine months.
01 Feb, 2008
Employment Numbers: OFF
What is it? The right-hand-most column shows NFP % Error. NFP = Non-Farm Payroll. The employment increases reported (under the column "Original Release") were off by the HUGE numbers in the right-hand-most column. For the year 2007, then, employment was overstated by 191,000 over 12 months -- an overstatement of 14.38%. That's almost 16,000 per month. Find Barry's item here.
