EleBlog

31 Jan, 2008

January was a good month for The EleBlog.

At left, you can click on "January 2008" and see this post and 91 others, an EleBlog record for monthly posts (since I began this in 8/05).

There were, according to a quick count, roughly 20,000 words posted here (not all written be me - some quoted) in Jan.

PLUS: I just checked the web traffic, and on 6 of the 10 days Jan. 21 to Jan. 30, the site topped 1,000 visits (the average had been 950 for quite a while). On two of the other four days, the totals were 954 and 970.

I guess I can rest for a few minutes . . . if I've not said it lately, I appreciate your visiting this site!

31 Jan, 2008

A 2,138-word article in the May 07 issue of Cabling Installation & Maintenance talked about pre-terminated solutions (both copper + fiber). WARNING: The authors are from Panduit, so this has gotta be somewhat biased.



It seems worthwhile to me. Here's where you'll find it on the CI&M site; you'll probably have to register first (I think that's FREE, tho).

31 Jan, 2008

SMACNA's Colorado contractors (SMACNA = sheet metal union contractors' organization) has put together a video on BIM. It's worth watching.

31 Jan, 2008

SMACNA's Colorado contractors (SMACNA = sheet metal union contractors' organization) has put together a video on BIM. It's worth watching.

31 Jan, 2008

For a sample of the kind of lunacy that passes for thinking among Libertarians, see this post (and the 10 comments) -- "Occupational Licensing = Protectionism."

The idea that electircal contractors should NOT be licensed is so crazy, I can barely breathe.

What this proves: True believers of any stripe can be dangerous -- to the rest of us, and even to themselves.

31 Jan, 2008

Here's a one-month story:





Aluminum prices rally on power shortages -- from Marketwatch.com today (1/31). The story includes one estimate that "roughly 550,000 metric tons of 2008 productio nmay be lost due to the outages in South Africa nad China."

Good god!

30 Jan, 2008

I've done a bit of writing on how demographics -- specifically, the aging baby boom -- will affect readers in electrical contracting, electrical distribution, and engineering. I maintain an interest in it not just because someone might hire me to write something else on that, but because . . . well, I'm 54.

The Urban Institute last month had a session on "Who Will Hire Me When I'm 64?" The group has posted downloadable MP3 files of what was said, even including the Q-and-A session, and also including a link from which you can download the whole thing. I've not yet listened, but I will.

30 Jan, 2008

Jim Haughey, Ph.D., director of research & analystics and chief economist at Reed Construction Data, writes regularly. I recently got an electronic copy of the 6-page 1/08 RCD newsletter, Executive Insights - Construction Industry Update. There's a lot in here, but let me quote only what he says about office space:

30 Jan, 2008

A blog entry over at "Traffic Court" -- a blog posted to the site of Retail Traffic magazine -- is headlined "Another Debt Problem In Real Estate." Here's a quote (something the blog quoted, so this is a riff off of a riff) -- potent, I think:

While people are debating whether or not there IS a recession, it appears the construction industry is headed -- eventually (mid-2008? early 2009) for the toilet.

30 Jan, 2008

Herb Greenberg -- a columnist for Marketwatch.com, a regular on CNBC-TV (if you watch that) -- has opinions. The reason I read him from time to time (I used to subscribe to a paid newsletter he sent out, until it was terminated -- I got my $ back) is that he backs up his opinions with research. He doesn't appear to have an axe to grind; he is, if one can use this term, a "market reporter."

His 1/28 column head: "Why office real estate is headed lower." A slice:

30 Jan, 2008

Yesterday's economic data -- a seriously good durable good report -- allayed (at least for a moment) fears of an economic slowdown. From Bloomberg.com:


2. From another 1/29 Bloomberg.com item:

"Aluminum rose the most in 11 months in London, and lead and zinc also climbed, as power cuts disrupted production in South Africa and China . . . aluminum for delivery in three months increased . . . 4%, to $2.612 a metric ton, as of 1:40 p.m. on the London Metal Change, the biggest jump since Feb. 13."

After hovering for what seemed like forever in the $1.06-$1.12 area, aluminum at this moment (spot market) is bid at $1.1898 per pound.


EleBlog take: Here's what all this MIGHT add up to:



 (More)

28 Jan, 2008

I was surprised to find on the front page of Sunday's Washington Post (my local newspaper) a story, "Region's Builders Rein In Visions" -- about how "civic leaders and developers are scaling back ambitions and dramatically altering -- if not killing -- vast projects."

First, it's creditable to the Post to run a local "business" story on its front page (altho one would expect it would be bad news).

Second, putting it on the front page itself is unusual. And the story jumps to a nearly full page of information and graphics, including a run down of nine major projects with a status report on each. It's 1,698 words, all told.

- - - - -

Third -- and this is not doubt the MOST relevant -- the Washington area has been a boom town. There are a number of reasons for that, but the main one is that the rest of the country sends its money here. Tax dollars, of course, are routed to the IRS here, and allocated by the Congress and the President. Thanks to the activities of the latter, lobbyists come here to tell Congress what to do (and money to pay the lobbyists comes here via associations and other means).

. . . so it's surprising to see Washington suffering from any national debacle.

- - - - -

The Post keeps some of its stuff online free for a few days, then shuts it off behind a firewall. I'm not sure you'll find this online, even for free. Here are some telling slices:

And

And

On the Web site for Manassas Park, city officials tout their community as Virginia's "newest city," though its downtown is defined by auto repair shops, warehouses and towing firms.

In 2005, Manassas Park officials and Clark Realty joined forces to change the city's image. The centerpiece of their vision was 30 acres of industrial terrain they hoped to turn into townhouses, condos, retail and office buildings, all of it across from a train station. A new city hall would anchor the site, which planners promised would draw pedestrians and commuters to work, shop and play.

By last May, the housing slump forced the developer to redraw the plan. Instead of condos, there would be 274 apartments. Instead of stand-alone commercial buildings, the offices and retail would sit beneath the apartments.

City officials and the developer say they remain committed to the development, though they said it will now take at least two years longer. "We're deferring it because the market is not there," said Jay Sotos, Clark's managing director.

28 Jan, 2008

In August, the research firm Parks Associates came out with a white paper, "Home Controls: Trends and Opportunities." This graphic shows a MAJOR opportunity -- lighting control.

Evidently, up to this point, the people selling home technology haven't had as much success selling lighting controls as they've had with home theaters.

28 Jan, 2008

Electric House Expo's fall 07 edition (which I could not attend) included a breakfast on "50 Easy Ways to Green Your Home, Business, and Services." CE Pro magazine, which is owned by the same people as the Expo, recently posted a slideshow of the 50 ways that were discussed.

A few of them which seem suitable for ECs to offer:

28 Jan, 2008

Building Design & Construction is a monthly for "the building team." It's a pretty good publication that has the unfortunate luck to be published by a company other than McGraw-Hill Construction -- and thus, is not necessarily in the limelight. In leafing through the thing recently, I found that it offers exclusive podcasts. Here's a list of what I found today on the site -- almost all of it with a Green tint:

28 Jan, 2008

A release posted early this year to PR Newswire -- on behalf of a relatively small CT electrical contractor -- contains several interesting nuggets. First, here's an early slice:


What's important here -- to me -- is that, like a typical EC firm, PowerHouse was led into a neat side business by something other than a management decision or market research. The key: "Listening to their clients."

Now, here's the interesting (to me) part:


EleBlog points to ponder:

1. PowerHouse is a small contractor -- issuing a press release. This link takes you to a Reuters pick-up of the PR Newswire item.

2. Generators are a neat sideline business, but even for PowerHouse -- which, remember, issued a release -- this is maybe 50 sales in 2008.

3. The "poor health reasons" is a savvy note. Homeowner health needs are going to be dictating more work for contractors of all types, including electricals.

4. Finally, there's the "generator monitoring auto dialer unit" offering mentioned in the last paragraph quoted above. That's a simple technological item -- a neat thing for a contractor to offer, and not just for generators.

28 Jan, 2008

Don't get me wrong: Construction isn't necessarily the center or pinion of the U.S. economy.

However, it is unfortunate that, right now -- when economic measures seem to matter disproportionately -- we can't get a clear reading on where construction is now.

"McGraw-Hill, Reed, Beige Book, AIA differ on construction" is the headline economist Ken Simonson of the AGC slapped on the Jan. 15-19 edition of The Data DIGest.

McGraw-Hill Construction is considered a reliable economic source -- as is Reed Construction Data, MHC's rival. The Beige Book is offered 8x/year by the Federal Reserve Board. AIA = American Institute of Architects . . . and its monthly "work on the boards" reading gets a lot of attention.

EleBlog take: THIS IS IMPORTANT. Here's Simonson's text; all of the bolding is his, not mine:

New reports on construction activity present a conflicting story. McGraw-Hill Construction said Friday, based on reports it collected, “…new construction starts in December were essentially unchanged from November. Modest declines were reported for nonresidential building and nonbuilding construction (public works and electric utilities), which were offset by a small increase for residential building. For the full year 2007, total construction [was] down 11% from 2006,…the first annual decline…since 1991. [New nonresidential] construction starts for the full year 2007 advanced 3%....For most of 2007, nonresidential building and public works were able to stay close to the elevated pace achieved during 2006. However, during [October and November], both nonresidential building and public works lost momentum…”

On Thursday, Reed Construction Data, using its own data collection, reported, “the value of [nonresidential] construction starts in full year 2007 [was] up 11.2% from full year 2006. On a month-to-month basis, starts increased 5.2% in December after two weak months in November and October. However, starts weakened at the end of 2007 with the final three months recording a 17.6% fall from the previous three months. This decline was more than the usual seasonal decline at the beginning of winter.”

“Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts [referred to by their headquarters cities] suggest that economic activity increased modestly [from] mid-November through December, but at a slower pace compared with the previous survey period,” the Fed reported on Wednesday in the “Beige Book,” an informal survey of business activity in each district. “[L]ending to the commercial real estate sector was generally described as mixed….Demand continued to decline for construction workers and those in housing-related industries, according to most reports…conditions in manufacturing industries producing construction and home-related goods remained weak….Contacts in the Boston and Chicago Districts indicated that commercial construction activity was slowing. Developers in the Atlanta and Richmond Districts reported smaller backlogs of projects while Cleveland District contacts said that backlogs had risen. Most contacts anticipate a slower pace of commercial development during 2008….[P]roducers of framing lumber, wallboard and wood panels reported weak prices, according to the Atlanta, Minneapolis and Chicago reports.”

“Billings at architecture firms held steady in December to close out the year with…the highest reported since July,” the American Institute of Architects reported on Friday. “Firms with a commercial/industrial specialization continue to report the strongest business conditions, with billings climbing to the second highest score…of all time. Billings growth continued at a moderate pace for firms with an institutional specialization, and firms with a residential practice reported the fifth month in a row of declining billings.”

28 Jan, 2008

Important info about the commercial mortgage market (and ultimately, construcdtion) -- from a 1/25 Bloomberg news item:

While the yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell 1.43 percentage points in the past three months to the lowest since 2003 following four interest rate cuts, the cost of borrowing for apartment buildings, offices, retail properties and hotels climbed as much as 1.25 percentage points, according to David McLain, principal and chief investment officer of Palisades Financial LLC, a private equity firm in Fort Lee, New Jersey.

``The market is locked up right now because there's a huge overhang of leveraged assets of every type, development deals that won't meet projections made last year when things were rosy,'' said David Tobin, a principal at New York-based Mission Capital Advisors LLC, which was involved in $5 billion of asset sales last year. ``It will end just like the residential housing market.''

Bernanke's easing hasn't stopped the $3.2 trillion commercial market from starting a slide that mirrors the housing decline, where prices have dropped for the first time since the Great Depression. U.S. commercial property prices probably will fall 10 percent in 2008 from last year's peak after rising 60 percent since 2002, said Dan Fasulo, director of market analysis at New York-based research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc.

This isn't good for the construction industry, which is hoping nonresidential will stay strong this year.

26 Jan, 2008

A story in the Boston Business Journal (11/16/07) is headlined "Costs of going green keep businesses singing the blues." Here's a piece to think about:

Varian Semiconductor is one such company that has struggled with such a cost-benefit analysis. The ion implant manufacturer generated $730 million in revenue last year and has more than 1,500 employees.

Although the company recently received a $525,000 MTC grant to install two wind turbines at its Gloucester headquarters, the total cost to complete the project will run Varian around $11.5 million.

"It's tough to get it by your finance people," said Rick Johnson, Varian's director of facilities. "Six years is a long return on investment."

But Johnson said the investment will be well worth it; at today's rates, he plans on saving almost $2 million a year in energy costs.

EleBlog take: This is the kind of thing that can piss me off. Here's a quick look at what's wrong here:

1. Money not spent drops to the bottom line. Thus the saving of almost $2 million/year means a near-$2M profit increase for Varian.

2. That comes at the cost of an $11.5M investment. Varian can finance that. Or it can lease the project (via creative financing).

3. A six-year ROI = a 16.6% return on investment. What the F is wrong with that, I'm wondering? At a time when businesses can borrow money cheaply (check out the 10-year T-note rate) . . . a 16.6% return is pretty damn good. If the deal is structured as a lease, the payments are operating expenses (i.e., they don't show up on the balance sheet). If the deal is financed with debt, the interest on the debt is deductible.

4. Energy costs (including electricity) are going up over time. THerefore, it is LIKELY that -- sometime in those first six years -- rates will go up. The ROI will increase. Thus the 16.6% ROI is a minimal expression of the cash return.

5. Solar and wind installations can last a long time. Of course, it is NOT common for companies to figure out (and boast about) long-term ROI. But assuming the wind installation Varian is talking about lasts 25 years -- and assuming electricity rates and other energy costs keep going up (a probability, I would say) -- then the long-term return on this investment is going to be SPECTACULAR.

The quote from the Varian facility guy says "it's tough to get it by your finance people." I've heard this before. Thus, we are led to one simple conclusion:

26 Jan, 2008

Here's an updated graphic from Ken Simonson, chief economist of the Associated General Contractors of America --

26 Jan, 2008

On a site -- I kid you not -- called Happy News, I found a story about companies in the Washington, D.C. area honored with a business ethics award. Some of us can find "ethics" hard to define . . . or hard to have and maintain . . . or if we think about it, we "feel" that ethics will cost us something.

Maybe they can. But read this:

26 Jan, 2008

General Motors has started up www.gmnext.com, home to a blog about the car of the future. On one of the entries there's a link to a Q-and-A with Gary Smyth, director of the powertrain systems research laboratory. Here's a piece of what Smyth had to say about fuel for automobiles -- including electricity:

26 Jan, 2008

On Fri. Feb. 8th, Consulting-Specifying Engineering magazine is holding a free Webcast on "Selective Coordination for Emergency and Legally Required Power Systems." I recently edited an article about Selective Coordination (the piece is not yet printed or online, sorry). This topic isn't exactly brand new, but references in the National Electrical Code to it are making SC more important.

26 Jan, 2008

Grayson Evans -- one of the real veterans in home networking -- has written an article about wireless + houses. I found it in two places:


These articles appear to be more or less exactly the same, down to the graphics provided.

26 Jan, 2008

Factory-Built Construction and the American Homebuyer: Perceptions and Opportunities is a 4.3 MB, 127-page PDF available from PATH, the Partnership for Advancing Technology in Housing. The marketing of pre-fabricated buildings, apparently needs a bit of magic. The thing, issued by PATH and HUD, is apparently aimed at helping home builders market modular houses.

Here's a piece of PATH's write-up:

24 Jan, 2008

Mike Holt is a friend of mine, and it's tempting (when I'm lazy) to just put pointers here to the stuff on his site -- www.mikeholt.com.

I don't. There is, of course, a link (it's the first one beneath the "Joe's Favorite Sites" under Links at right).

His newsletter recently included an interesting post about aluminum ("the other conductor"). Worth some thought, I think.

24 Jan, 2008

Just a reminder (which I should post more often, maybe) --

The stuff at right provides access to older stuff on this site.

1. Listings by month -- there have been more than 60 posts slapped up here this month. You get to see 6 or 7 at a time when you visit, but you can "catch up" by clicking on "January 2008" under Archives.

2. Listings by subject -- I've broadened the "categories" at right. I'm trying to provide more access to electrical/datacom and other video and audio sites of interest (at least, so far into 2008). So if you click on "Audio & Video" under Categories, you'll get to more than 20 items that provide links to relevant stuff elsewhere. Ditto the other categories. Of course, if you click on "Scene & Herd," you'll get all 234 posts in that category going back to 2005.

3. The other stuff -- advertise banners and links -- speaks for itself, I hope.

24 Jan, 2008

While leafing through the Nov-Dec issue of Eco-Structure magazine -- yes, yet another "green" and sustainable publication -- I stumbled upon PowerSeeds, "self-contained light units [that] offer customizable schemes." Seemd pretty neat. I ran the item by Craig DiLouie, a lighting expert, and he thought they looked interesting, too.

Here's a bit of what Eco-Structure wrote:

" . . . decorative, site-specific solar-light sources embedded into pedestrian areas, sidewalks, plazas, parks,and other surfaces exposed to the sun. Individual unts are planted and replanted according to development of the area. Each unit is controlled by a timing device that dictates varied light and color schemes that combine to provide a controlled lighting design through a large space."

These things are called PowerSEEDS. There's no wiring. The product comes from UeBERSEE Inc. of Los Angeles, but I was unable to find product propagands at www.uebersee.us.

To see the magazine item: 1 -click through on that link and launch the "DigiMag" online version of the magazine. 2 - page over to page 12.

24 Jan, 2008

FOA = The Fiber Optics Association. On the FOA site's Tech page, it lists four new (free) instructional videos:

Cable Preparation (zipcord, distribution, breakout, loose tube and armored cables)
Termination (adhesive style connectors)
Mechanical Splicing (Ultrasplice, with optimization using visual fault locator)
Testing (insertion loss with light source and power meter)

The videos are in Quicktime.

Eleblog take: Jim Hayes, a friend of mine, was the guy who built the FiberU website long ago. The site was owned by his company, FOTEC; when he sold the company off, the buyer shut the site down (as was its right). This was a for-crying-out-loud shame for the datacom industry, as FiberU (and its sister site, CableU) provided tons of free information and education.

All gone in the snap of someone's fingers.

Today, six years later, it looks as if Jim is building something similar (albeit not as dramatically broad and deep) with the FOA site. On the copper side, Jim is also behind the Structured Cabling Association.

24 Jan, 2008

I'm happy that SOMEONE is reporting on this. The incredible pollution in China has gotten more ink in the U.S., I think, than the government policies to suppress the Chinese people.

What's more, this article comes from Reporters san frontieres . . . yes, The French! The link takes you to an English page. Here's one slice:
EleBlog take: The powers-that-be in the West are in collusion with the powers-that-be in the East. Our rich and powerful are turning 2 blind eyes and 2 deaf ears to all of this, so that they can pursue their goals in China (which apparently don't include the spread of democracy, human rights, or anything else laudable). The powers-that-be in China make deals and -- promptly -- forget what they promised.

It sucks. It's another reason to look at the labels and boxes of the stuff you buy -- and avoid stuff made in China. YES, I know that will cost you more. So what? You know the old saying . . . ."Evil thrives when good men do nothing."

24 Jan, 2008

I read Plenty magazine. The Feb-Mar 2008 issue had a page with some neat devices to help you track (and cut) "excess energy usage." I wanted to link to them, but the mag doesn't put its content online -- at least, not where nonpaying pikers can access it!

But I did find something there: The Eco-strip. Priced at $35 per item, the power strip turns off your computer (and peripherals) when it senses a span of time has passed in which the things are NOT being used. From the magazine's short write-up:


EleBlog take:


In a lot of cases -- as in take #3 -- there is a conflict between energy use and productivity. In many other cases, there is a COMPLIMENT. For example, statistics I've seen show that moving to "green" buildings produce a much bigger return-on-investment if one factors in increased occupant productivity (i.e., the worker output increase, in dollars, is much bigger than the energy savings).

Bottom line: I'll turn things off when I'm ready to do so (and I do!). But I don't want another brain in this room, telling me when to do it!

24 Jan, 2008

M.B. Herzog Electric Inc. (Paramount, Calif.) was written up in the November Occupational Hazards magazine. The company reportedly has "a lost-time injury rate one-third of the industry's average." If you click on the link, you'll have to page down -- although you might want to read the safety write-ups on other companies, including Grainger (the distributor) and Rea Magnet Wire.

Herzog's triumph doesn't stem from a single stroke of genius, but from a "daily safety culture." Here's a snippet that I found new (in my limited knowledge of EC safety efforts):

22 Jan, 2008

EISA, the energy law signed into force in December, mandates the U.S. car-and-truck fleet to achieve 35 miles per gallon by the year 2020.

Jerry Flint is a columnist for Forbes magazine. I've been bypassing the political and ignorant crap in the front of this magazine and reading him for years -- perhaps decades, at this point. He's usually right about stuff.

Here's Jerry on the new law: "It won't happen." Among other things in the column, he points out that the 2008 Honda Accord "has poorer fuel economy than last year's model, and Honda is Mr. Green. That new hybrid system on the GM Chevy Tahoe SUV probably adds $10,000 to the cost (and 400 pounds) and gets it up to 20mpg."

There's more. I don't think Flint is necessarily a dinosaur (like the guy names Forbes who writes a column in the front of the magazine). He's talking about practical realities. I prefer to hear about that than fantasies . . . don't you?

22 Jan, 2008

NEMA, which is the electrical manufacturers group, has posted a website about Child Outlet Safety. There are rules in the 2008 National Electrical Code requiring use of outlets that are tamper-proof (i.e., children can't hurt themselves playing near the outlets). The site features a video worth watching.

22 Jan, 2008

Southern Electrical Contracting (www.s-e-c.co.uk) took first place in a survey of 50 construction contractor websites in the U.K., according to Building.co.uk.

22 Jan, 2008

I came across a speech from David H. McCormick on "China's Journey to Environmentally Sustainable Growth." He's undersecretary of Treasury for International Affairs. Here is the "money" section:

The impact of China's energy demands has not been limited to oil. China is also the world's largest producer and consumer of coal. Although China contains only 13% of the world's proven coal reserves, over the last decade it has been responsible for nearly 40% of total global consumption, generally used to expand China's electrical generating capacity. In 2007, China added 95 gigawatts of electrical generating capacity – that's the equivalent of three new 500-megawatt coal-fired power plants every week, or roughly half of California's total electrical consumption last year.

China's rapid economic growth has come at a terrible cost to its air, water, and soil. Sixteen of the world's 20 most polluted cities are in China. Water quality in China has deteriorated significantly, with 26% of surface water being totally unusable, 62% of water being unsuitable for fish, and over 90% of all rivers running through cities suffering significant pollution. And by its own account, China is overtaking the United States as the world's largest source of greenhouse gases even though its economy is only one sixth in size.

McCormick also talked about the need for capital on the energy side of the world's economy:


EleBlog take:

1 - things that routinely happen in China are on a mind-boggling scale. This especially applies to Pollution. When a Western company shifts production from the U.S. (or elsewhere in the heavily regulated West) to China, are you sure that it's about wages paid to workers?

2 - I'm not sure that the IEA's $22-trillion estimate is accurate. But of late, I've noted a lot of multi-billion-dollar and multi-trillion-dollar estimates for cleaning things up, straightening things out, inspection and fixing bridges, upgrading Medicare's financial status, fixing Social Security -- and on and on and on. There -- literally -- isn't that much money in the world!

22 Jan, 2008

I've been noticiing a growing tilt toward Peak Oil belief. It's interesting.

From The Economist: "Christophe de Margerie, the boss of Total, thinks that the world's oil production may be nearing its peak." Here's the key section of the one-page column:

Mr de Margerie is careful to point out that he is not predicting “peak oil” in a geological sense. His definition of peak oil is “when supply cannot meet demand”. He believes that the fuel that the world needs to keep its cars and factories running may well be out there, somewhere. It is just getting harder and harder to extract, for technical as well as political reasons. For one thing, he points out, the output of existing fields is declining by 5m-6m b/d every year.

That means that oil firms have to find lots of new fields just to keep production at today's levels. Moreover, the sorts of fields that Western oil firms are starting to develop, in very deep water, or of nearly solid, tar-like oil, are ever more technically challenging. There is not enough skilled labour and fancy equipment in the world, he believes, to ramp up production as quickly as people hope.

And in Australia, a General Motors exec let on that he thinks peak oil is here. Of course, he's got motives -- he's trying to promote the electric car. But I've found it of interest . . . this report appeared in the English language. It's been picked up by ALL of the peak oil web sites, but I believe you haven't read it anywhere in mainstream U.S. journalism. Here's the lead for the Australian report:

The head of car giant General Motors has publicly warned the switch to biofuels such as ethanol and electric cars is now inevitable and with oil prices at record highs, motorists may soon become familiar with the phrase "peak oil".

It is the theory that more than half the planet's oil reserves have now been used and demand will inevitably outstrip supply, driving prices ever higher.

While some experts reject the theory, arguing the planet still holds enormous reserves of oil and gas, peak oil has won a powerful new backer.

This week, the chief executive of US car giant General Motors, Rick Wagoner, publicly warned the switch to biofuels such as ethanol and electric cars was now inevitable.

Mr Wagoner concedes the petrol engine's days are numbered, saying oil supply has peaked and the race is on for replacement fuels.

"We need to develop alternative sources of propulsion based on diverse sources of energy," he said.

EleBlog take: We're not running out of crude oil. We're running out of CHEAP crude oil. As I've heard it expressed (paraphrasing here): "We don't have any more $50/barrel oil, or $75/barrel . . . but we have plenty of $125/barrel, $150/barrel, and $175/barrel oil left."

That's what "Peak Oil" means in 2007. What it will mean in the year 2030 and 2040 and thereafter is another question.

22 Jan, 2008

Lew Tagliaferre taught me much of what I learned in my first stint as a NECA staffer (1979-83) -- he was director of marketing services, a post he held for 27 years. Now Lew does a variety of things, including writing a monthly "Bottom Line Energy Issues" column for Buildings.com.

His December contribution: Survey Exposes Electric Reliability. Among other things you ought to know:


AND -- even more importantly --


EleBlog take: Lew is writing for building owners, which explains that question in italics that ended this section. Note that there is MORE, and if you care about electricity supply in the near future, it's worth reading. It's incredible that I've been learning from this guy for nearly 30 years now!

As for the gist of Lew's column: He is, of course, right. Sooner or later, we're going to have major electricity supply problems in this country. When they congeal and hit all at once, there will be a "Crisis." Politicians will yap; magazines will slap black ink all over their covers (to indicate blackouts and darkness). But the solutions will TAKE TIME. Things we can do about electricity supply margins (and reliability) can be started today. If they are started on the other side of a crisis, they will STILL take time.

22 Jan, 2008

Integrated Electrical Services' filed its 10-K (annual report) on FY07 with the Securities & Exchange Commission. This covers the FY ended 9-30-07. It weighs in at 69,000+ words (166 pages of MS Word doc). Some highlights of the early verbiage in the document:

Geographic diversity —We have 122 locations serving the continental 48 states, and we worked on more than 900 contracts over $250,000 and nearly 3,100 contracts overall in 2007. Our national presence sometimes mitigates much of the region specific economic slowdowns. Since 1997, much of our revenues have been derived from the Sunbelt states, which have had higher growth rates than overall U.S. construction. Our geographic diversity also enables us to serve national customers with multiple locations.


Utilization of prefabrication processes —Our size and 100% merit shop environment has allowed us to implement best prefabrication practices across our company quickly. We prefabricate and preassemble or prepackage significant portions of electrical installations off-site and ship materials to the installation sites in specific sequences to optimize materials management, improve efficiency and minimize our employees' time on job sites. This is safer, more efficient and more cost effective for both us and our customers.


- - - - -

Industry Overview -- The residential and non-residential construction industries have both experienced strong growth rates for several years. Since the middle of 2007, economic conditions, notably restricted access to credit, have lead to a sharp decrease in demand for residential housing. Reviewing the most recently available data from McGraw Hill Construction Analytics and FMI Construction Outlook, we believe the effects of reduced availability of credit are a significant concern for the construction industry, and we have already experienced a downturn in our residential construction business. Using data from both sources mentioned above, for the period from 2001 to 2006, the five-year compounded annual growth rate for non-residential construction was 3.5%. For the same period, the five-year compounded annual growth rate for residential construction was 9.5%. Fiscal year 2007 forecasts indicate that non-residential construction will increase approximately 8.2% from the previous year; however, residential construction could decline by up to 16%.

Looking forward, the housing market is projected to return to a moderate growth rate. Based on research provided by FMI Construction Outlook and McGraw-Hill Construction, residential construction is expected to continue to grow, but at a modest rate with the projected five-year compounded annual growth rate to be 0.7%. In contrast to the decreased growth in residential construction, growth in non-residential construction is still expected to outpace the economy as a whole. The projected five-year compounded annual growth rate for non-residential construction is approximately 7.3%.

Commercial/Industrial -- Demand for our commercial and industrial services is driven by construction and renovation activity levels, as well as more stringent local and national electrical codes. From fiscal 2003 through 2007, our compound annual growth rate from commercial and industrial revenue has fallen approximately 1.4% per year, due in large part to a more selective strategy focused on higher margin projects. The industry average for non-residential construction services has grown at a compound annual rate of approximately 6.7% per year. Commercial and industrial work represented approximately 62%, 58% and 63% of our consolidated revenues for the twelve month periods ended September 30, 2007, 2006 and 2005, respectively.


Residential --We are currently one of the largest providers of electrical contracting services to the U.S. residential construction market, and our residential business has experienced significant growth over the last five years. During the last year however, we have been impacted by the residential industry down turn that has resulted in a 25% decline in revenues compared to fiscal year 2006. Our compound annual growth rate from residential electrical revenue has grown 9.1% from fiscal 2003 through 2007 compared to an industry average of approximately 9.5% over the same period. Residential electrical contracting represented approximately 38%, 42% and 37% of our consolidated revenues for the twelve month periods ended September 30, 2007, 2006 and 2005, respectively.

19 Jan, 2008

From Honda: "This fourth-generation experimental unit is designed to provide fuel for a hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicle, as well as heat and electricity for a home. The new system is more compact and efficient, with a lower operating cost than previous models. The announcement coincides with the world debut of the all-new FCX Clarity hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicle at the Los Angeles Auto Show."



The claim:

Details (posted by H in November) -- here. Read it. We're talking here about Honda for the house, as well as an energy deal for a car.

19 Jan, 2008

Greensource magazine posted (back in November) a Q_A with a designer, Thom Mayne, on "what's wrong with LEED." It includes this:

TM: LEED should give performance requirements and let the architect solve the problem. The point system doesn't scale. A bike rack and air conditioning get you the same point. I'd much rather see BTU and CO2 requirements and let the professional community solve the problem. If you give proscriptive requirements, it stagnates new development and research. It's like taking a blue book test. You don't need to know the subject. Because architects deal in creative problem solving, some of that will be curtailed by proscriptive systems.

I also think the LEED point system is overladen in the construction phase versus lifetime energy consumption and secondary effects.

It's easy to criticize. It's easy to sit back, let someone else do something, and then slam it. My gut feeling about LEED is similar to that last sentence from Mayne . . . more emphasis on energy consumption is needed.

But the feelings of Mayne (an expert) and The EleBlog (not a standards-creating organization) should be seen as commentaries on a tremendous accomplishment, not knocking something cobbled together. LEED is an accomplishment. If critics like Mayne can help make it better, that's great . . . but please don't let criticism stray into the vicinity of a tear-down.

19 Jan, 2008

I am not well informed about transformers, so I pass along this information without an opinion. The U.S. Department of Energy in October issued final electric distribution transformer standards. From what I've read in the industry, there is a near-universal lack of enthusiasm (even disappointment) at what DOE required.

As in . . . the gummint didn't go far enough.

Here's what the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy said in a release:

"We're glad DOE has improved upon their original proposed standard," said Steven Nadel, Executive Director of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE). "But, with the buyers and one of the biggest sellers of transformers urging even higher standards, DOE could have done better."

19 Jan, 2008

I'm becoming a fan of Fred Harding, who writes for CE Pro magazine. He recently penned a 1,053-word ditty on "Category Wiring: What You Need to Know." It's basic stuff on Cat 5 and higher wiring and communications applications.

Solid advice:

When you’re installing Cat 5 or higher wiring, it’s important to understand some of the requirements around handling the wire.

If the wire is pulled too hard, cinched too tight or bent at too sharp a radius (to name a few possibilities), the performance of the wire can be affected.

For voice applications, extremely rough handling can lead to breakage of the fragile conductors. This is the concern.

Where some of the more restrictive covenants really have an effect is on data wiring. If you are trying to deliver a network installation to a particular standard, improper handling will lead to troubling loss of potential speed.

Other things to avoid include:

• More than a 25-pound pull on the wire. I myself am not sure how to test that. So, I suggest that if the wire isn’t flowing smoothly, you’re probably over the pull limit.
• Bending the wire beyond a 1-inch radius.
• Using staples that will compress the wire.
• Cinching your zip ties too taut. Velcro strips are preferred when working with bundles of wiring because, inevitably, you will want to add another length or two of wire after you dress your bundle.
• Overstuffing wire into conduit.

19 Jan, 2008

The NECA-IBEW ElectricTV.net edition 6 - posted early in '08 - includes an interview with a consultant from FMI Corp. (the construction industry's leading management consulting firm) on BIM -- building information modeling.

So the online TV show of the electrical subcontractors + electricians featured a Q&A on the top up-and-coming technology in construction. Worth a look!

19 Jan, 2008

I am finishing a short article on construction in the United Arab Emirates. There's one quote I found where the construction plans will require moving from 30,000 construction workers to 700,000 -- if that can be believed.

ArabianBusiness.com says that Paul Arneill of "Al Naboodah Laing O'Rourke" tells them that -- to meet the construction requirements with a shortage of people -- "70% of everything will be prefabricated in the future." From the story:

19 Jan, 2008

With the news (reported here earlier this week) that Compact Fluorescent Lamps in '07 accounted for 20% of light bulb sales (up from 5% in 2005), not only should you be thinking "energy savings" . . . but also "mercury problem if we don't recycle them properly."

You might not be thinking that, but others are. According to FacilityBlog, Waste Management, Inc., is expanding its lamp recycling program.

19 Jan, 2008

ASHRAE offers free downloads of any (or all) of three PDFs in the Advanced Energy Design Guide series. Here's the pitch: Each offers "a sensible approach to easily achieve advanced levels of energy savings without having to resort to detailed calculations or analysis. The four-color guides offer contractors and designers the tools, including recommendations for practical products and off-the-shelf technology, needed for achieving a 30% energy savings compared to buildings that meet the minimum requirements of ANSI/ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-1999."

Better yet, the guides are devoted to buildings you usually don't hear much about (in the energy-saving milieu) --


You fill out a form once, you get to download 1, 2 or all 3 of these.

17 Jan, 2008

Today has been a green-and-lighting day, for reasons having to do with what I'm working on (a green issue of Rexel's POWER OUTLET magazine!) -- and I apologize if today I am Johnny-One-Note.

I came across an 1,100-word article on Group Relamping. It sometimes seems to me that I've been writing and reading about this particular subject for 30 years. That's not fair -- while it might be old news to some of us, those of us who are NOT doing group relamping ought to read and think about it!

To hit it quickly: There are so many advantages to group relamping that it's surprising that -- still -- folks need to here about it. You would think that these obvious plusses would make this a standard operating procedure -- everywhere. As the article notes:

I guess one conclusion might be: Those of us writing about group relamping (me included) have not done a particularly effective job of spreading this gospel!

17 Jan, 2008

FacilityBlog has an item about


I can't attest to the product line's quality or viability, but this sure is interesting, ain't it?

17 Jan, 2008

The Natl. Lighting Product Info Program sent an e-mail out 1/14 to let the world know that it has uploaded a (Free) 32-page report on CFL Residential Downlights.

That link will take you to the page from where you can download a read-only OR printable PDF of the report. I think you've got to be registered with the site (which I believe is FREE) to download the printable version.

According to the NLPIP release, the report:

“For the past 25 years or so, the trend in residential new construction and remodeling has been to install recessed downlights as the predominant luminaire,” explained Patricia Rizzo, residential program manager at the Lighting Research Center (LRC) and one of the report’s authors. “Their clean, low-profile appearance appeals to many consumers,” she added.

17 Jan, 2008

A release posted 1/15 by the DOE notes that the market share of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) has jumped from 5% in 2005 to 20% last year:

17 Jan, 2008

Back in early October, CNBC ran a video on the below item (the study on "green collar jobs"). You'll have to sit thru a short commercial first.

So . . . if you're not likely to wade through the 68-page PDF, or you wanna figure out if you SHOULD download the thing -- watch the 3-minute video.

Key voice-over words in the piece: These jobs are "tough to outsource overseas." Think about it!
 (More)

17 Jan, 2008

With the assistance of a consulting firm, the American Solar Energy Society has fashioned an assessment of what renewable energy AND energy efficiency could do to and for our society -- given three levels of implementation. The 68-page PDF offers a lot of information; I've not yet made it thru the thing (I'm on the road right now, literally found the thing yesterday . . . and I wanna get home, print it out, and read it on paper).

Page 19 of the PDF features a table that shows the national revenues AND jobs in the year 2030 -- with renewable energy (RE) on one line and energy efficiency (EE) on another -- in the three scenarios. You must, of course, read the thing to figure out if the scenarios are realistic (even the "base case").

According to the most optimistic scenario, EE would employ 32.2 million people in 2030 and RE would amass nearly 8 million employees.

I don't know if the thing is realistic; I hope so, of course. But it IS something to think about. If we become a more efficient society that gets more of its energy from Non-Petroleum, Non-Imported (and renewable) sources -- and uses the energy more intelligently -- we would not only be able to tell the importers to screw off, we might be able to create jobs for our own people.

Sounds too good to be true? It probably isn't. Consider how much money we're putting into our daily energy bill these days -- and the huge (and ever-increasing) percentage of that tab which goes overseas.

17 Jan, 2008

Every reaction provokes a reaction. The "green" movement is undergoing a bit of a backlash. I've found attached in a business newspaper and magazines on both the Left and the Right! Deserved? I'll let you decide. Here are three places to see this "knock-'em-down-b4-they-get-too-big" reflex in action:

"Going green may raise construction tabs by more than 10%"-- a 12/17/07 story found in the Triangle Business Journal (a N.C. weekly). According to the article, it's expensive to get LEED certification. If you read the thing, it says that a project that sought to earn "LEED gold" certification "experienced a 9% to 10% budget increase." LEED proponents say the cost differential is minimal at the first two certification levels, and doesn't add up to all that much (certainly not 10%) at the gold level. From the piece:


- - - - -

FROM THE RIGHT: The Weekly Standard is, in my humble opinion, a magazine for dinosaurs who can read. A recent issue includes 1,394 words about "the nasty little surprise hidden in the new energy bill" beneath a headline that reads, "A Nation of Dim Bulbs." The article has a problem with the substitution of CFLs for incandescents.

Reading the article made me . . . uncomfortable. I never, ever want to agree with the nonsense in this magazine. But here was this article, saying stuff that I've said and written about myself (right here on The Eleblog) about CFLs. That's really "an inconvenient truth!" Here's a slice:


An interesting reference (in the jump of the article -- it appears on 2 pages) talked about Traer, Iowa, where half of the town's residents began using CFLs -- with electricity consumption bumping up by 8%. A direct result? I don't know; the article implies that it is. My problem with the Standard is crap like this. True? Verifiable? It's referenced in passing. Did the writer get this RIGHT or WRONG? Were there reasons for the 8% increase in power use (other than CFL installations).....?

Here's the question with someone who knows just a bit about electricity would ask: Did each of the 50% of citizens install ONE of the free CFLs for ONE incandescent? That wouldn't have ANY impact on electricity consumption, either way, that could be measured. This reference is supposed, I guess, to be potent . . . but it just reads (if one thinks about it for about a half-second) -- like yet more unthinking right-wing idiocy.

- - - - -

FROM THE LEFT: Slate.com, an online magazine, posted "It's Way Too Easy Being Green" at almost the same moment that the Standard ran the article referenced above. Slate is generally considered to be a liberal publication, although my personal politics are probably considerably to the left of this thing. Note: This one is also posted on 2 pages of its site.

Slate's article takes on the USGBC's LEED credential and references it (in the subhed) as a "decidely dupable system for rating a building's greenness." It offers one example and calls LEED "easy to game . . . has more to do with generating good PR than saving the planet." I have to admit to having had similar reactions to some of what LEED requires. For example, awarding points for $100,000 invested in "gray water" systems somehow seems to miss the point of using a lot less energy! The article notes that installing a $395 bike rack garners the same number of LEED points as "a $1.3 million environmentally sensitive heating system."

- - - - -

ELEBLOG TAKE:

1 -- all of these articles are worth a scan.

2 -- putting them here does NOT make me anti-green (or anti-LEED, or even anti-USGBC). There are thoughts worth thinking here.

3 -- if you trouble to read the three articles in sequence, you will note one thing: The smarmy, miserable, unfortunate attitude with which the Standard's article is written (compared to the two others). It reminds me of watching Tucker Carlson on MSNBC . . . an effort that, for me, doesn't last long if the remote control is within reach. My understanding of the right-wing attitude on the environment boils down to: If Al Gore is for it, we're against it.

These people went bananas when Gore -- an American, remember -- took home a Nobel prize. No pride. No appreciation for what good things Gore has accomplished. Just more right-wing stupidity! The Republican Party used to be the home for conservation; Teddy Roosevelt must be spinning in his grave.

4 -- Finally: Yes, LEED has problems. I have personally written about them in the past! [and I received a strong e-mail in disagreement from people I like and respect]. I think that we can't take the focus off of saving energy, not for a moment (and yes, I know there will be water shortages in some place, and LEED is good on water conservation and such -- but I don't care. No one who sells a lot of water is also trying to knock down buildings in the city in which I was born, as far as I know).

Energy conservation, energy efficiency, and screwing the Arabs out of their huge daily tithe from the world is too important to me to be left to chance. If LEED (and the green movement in general) focused -- at least for the next few moments -- ONLY on energy, a lot of good things would happen. One of them would be that maybe we could accomplish a great reduction in energy use in the U.S. without the need to resort to strong government regulation (and intervention).

. . . if The Peak Oil Hypothesis is correct, and things chug along in the direction they've been going, we're going to see more and more regulation (and intervention). It's going to become a must, as oil goes from the present $90-$100 per barrel range on up to $125, $150, and $175!

Therefore, LEED needs to be improved. I think USGBC is trying to do that, and probably will get closer to what I might personalliy like to see over time. The key point here is: Rick Fedrizzi of USGBC (founder) was out there knocking on doors in the 1990s, talking about green buildings . . . when no one wanted someone like him, with such a nutty message, putting knuckles on their doors! These people (Rick and his members) don't need to be praised to the heavens and worshipped. They can be criticized, just like anyone else, of course.

But let's include, in that critique, at least a reference to the fact that USGBC is moving the ball down the field . . . and its work is leading to the accomplishment of many, many good things. I would even note here that the "false" folks, pursuing green certification by putting in $395 bike racks instead of million-dollar heating systems, are . . . PUTTING IN BIKE RACKS!

15 Jan, 2008

"Spy planes to recharge by clinging to power lines" reads a headline from New Scientist, a British weekly magazine. I get NS in the mail, it's one of my favorite things to read. Generally speaking, I save the magazine. I wait until there is "quiet time" available (as in another wonderful trip on an airplane) and read a bunch of issues all at once. It's like a wonderful, long-lasting serving of desert (for the brain!).

Back to spy planes hanging from power lines. Turns out a unit of the U.S. Air Force


NS tends to put its content behind a firewall after a while; this article might not be available forever.

15 Jan, 2008

My friend Frank Bisbee, over at www.wireville.com, posts a torrent of VALUABLE information each month in his "Heard On The Street" column. Unless you read everything about the datacom/telecom market, you can play one heck of a game of catch-up by browsing what Frank posts each month.

One January post was about a new line of pre-fab electrical products, from a relatively famous supplier. It's worth reading (and thinking about). The release from the manufacturer included this, from a contractor:

15 Jan, 2008

The "Ask An Expert" corner of the e-mail newsletter from Facility Care magazine featured a short ditty on 11/27 answering the query, "what's new in lighting for nuses' stations and patient rooms?"

I have been reading and thinking a lot about lighting and health, for several reasons:


Here's something from the FC NL that might be of interest (actually, this free newsletter is pretty good, and if you click through you'll probably find yourself reading other pieces of it):

Research has determined that the part of the eye responsible for receiving and sending information to the body's circadian system, or body clock, which regulates sleep patterns and other physiologic and behavioral functions, is most sensitive to blue-green light. Also, darkness triggers the secretion of the hormone melatonin, which in turn brings on sleep.

When providing the patient room with a nightlight, research suggests that the light be amber or red in color. Light that has a wavelength of close to 589 nm is thought to be the optimum because this wavelength does not shut down the melatonin cycle.

Ideally, choose a lighting fixture that can be used as a pathway light/night light, or integrate red or amber lamps or LED's into an overhead or wall fixture. The controls for the nightlight should be readily controlled by the patient from the bed, as well as by the staff from the door. Also, a nursing task light is helpful for reading charts and performing tasks in the dark.

15 Jan, 2008

Matt Stevens of the Stevens Construction Institute has written a three-page article -- available free, but you have to request it -- Unwinding The Green Building Market for Construction Contractors. I've read it. You might or might not agree, but it's not a knee-jerk reaction; there's a brain and some thinking behind this.

Stevens has a blog on his site -- click here to read a bit about this piece; if you want more, you'll have to e-mail 'em and request it. Here's a slice:

15 Jan, 2008

"2007: A Brief Year in Review" is the title of a recent installment of the weekly podcast on RenewableEnergyAccess.com. Note if you go that you have to look to the left for the "Listen to Podcast" link.

I listened; the thing runs over 10 minutes. My favorite part was where Scott Sklar (a commentator on the site, among other things) expressed surprise and disappointment that Congress could take up the energy matter twice in three years (i.e., 2005 and 2007) . . . and still fall so short of accomplishing something.

I don't know Sklar at all; I'm familiar with his work on the site (which, when I've read it, seems pretty good -- search Sklar on the RenewableEnergyAccess site and you'll get back 162 links, much of which is stuff he's written).

Perhaps he's from Canada? This IS the way things don't get done here in the U.S.!

15 Jan, 2008

Nation's Building News -- official weekly pub of the National Assn. of Home Builders -- ran a story 12/17 about structured insulated panels (SIPs).

In May, the International Code Council voted to adopt SIPs into the International Residential Code.

Pre-fab is going to be the way to go, in the EleBlog's opinion -- as home builders look to cut costs, as skilled workers (electrical and otherwise) become harder and harder to find over time. In my time hanging around and listening to electricians and electrical contractors (dates back to 1979), what I've learned is that skilled electrical people want to "move up" from residential to commercial, industrial, and institutional work. Therefore, a worker shortage is going to impact skilled construction trades -- at least electrical -- disproportionately. I think.

So -- if this is so damn obvious, what's holding back pre-fabbed component use, such as that of SIPs? Here's a question on that and Donna Shirey's answer:

Shirey: The smart builders are waking up and realizing that this is the way to build ― and I commend them for that. But it’s not right for everybody. It’s important to be open to new techniques.

It’s all about attitude. I’ve talked to builders for 20 years about SIPs and they say, “Well, this is how we build, and the subs won’t understand it.” And the subs say, “Well, the builders think it’s too expensive, and they won’t spend the money on it.” It’s a catch-22!

Those links above will NOT take you to the Q&A article -- which is here.

15 Jan, 2008

Security Distribution & Marketing (SDM) magazine ran a December article titled, "What Technicians Need to Know about Cable & the NEC." NEC = National Electrical Code. It weighs in at 1,840 words. Some quotes of note:

• "One of the errors I see in this industry is people wiring in a hazardous or volatile location and not using the methodology that you need to wire in those areas."

• There's information about the fire ratings of riser and plenum cable, too.

• "If it's a fire alarm life-safety situation, and they use the wrong cable, they are opening themselves up to liability. If it comes out in court, they coudl be sued both criminally and financially."

• "Every industry professional should have a copy of the NEC, and be familiar with the requirements of the Code."

If you choose to click through, you might have to register to see the article (and much more) -- it should be Free.

12 Jan, 2008

I stumbled today over a Lighting Research Center publication on fluorescent dimming problems. It's presented in a downloadable PDF; I think you have to register to get a printable PDF. I actually AM registered, so my efforts got me a free PDF -- e-mailed to me. So you might wanna register. Here's the description from the site:

Note: NLPIP = National Lighting Product Information Program.

12 Jan, 2008

Ivy Zelman, an analyst, says the homebuilding industry is "down but not out." A presentation (you'll need RealPlayer, apparently) is available via Hanley-Wood -- and it's free, I think -- through 12/10/08. You've got time, but these views probably will be updated and OBE (overtaken by events) . . . damn soon.

12 Jan, 2008

One of the things that "gets" me about the current economic crisis, which stems from the housing market -- and, really, from the mortgage finance business -- is that They All Knew.

Who they? The housing people. The mortgage finance people. The economists. The home builders. The mortgage brokers. The banks. The realtors. Fannie Mae. Freddie Mac. ALL of them.

Is this starting to sound like a conspiracy theory? Well, it's not. There are facts.

In the past few weeks, I've been cleaning out my files . . . making room for more stuff, of course. It's an annual holiday-season effort. In doing this, I waded into a file cabinet drawer that consisted almost entirely of presentations from various economic forecasting conferences. There are 3 that I've tried to attend annually, held here in D.C. -- one sponsored by McGraw-Hill Construction, one by the National Association of Home Builders, and another by Reed Construction Data.

While sorting this stuff out (the discards get recycled) . . . I came across a handout from David Berson, vice president & chief econmist for Fannie Mae, from 10/30/02. Here's the title: "Housing Prices: Is There a Bubble" -- !!!

In other words: Even back at the end of 2002, people "inside" the mortgage finance business -- you can't get much deeper "inside" than Fannie Mae! -- were openly discussing whether or not there was a bubble in housing prices. Berson, of course, DENIED that there was a bubble in 2002.

I'm saving the bloody thing, as an artifact.

12 Jan, 2008

I read a lot of environmental, vegetarian, and alternative magazines. I've been a vegetarian since 1978. I was the editor of Waste Age, the #1 magazine in the waste biz, from 1984-89. I don't necessarily live "an alternative lifestyle," but I'll bet I've eaten more granola than you have.

In browsing one of these magazines this past week, I came across a quarter-page ad for GreenSingles.com. I went to the site (no, I'm not single, and I don't want to be -- but curiosity got the better of me). Here's what it is, I think:

12 Jan, 2008

Two distressing items -- unrelated -- were called to my attention yesterday:

1. The item you probably already have seen -- Moody's, the rating service, is starting to wonder aloud about the viability of the AAA rating it slaps on U.S. government debt. The fact that someone would eventually question this is NOT a surprise to me, as I've been following financial news for years -- and it's not hard to put 2 + 2 together.

However, the eventual news item itself IS distressing. It felt better when I thought this would come "someday" . . . but not yesterday.

2. An item you perhaps did not notice carried the headline "U.S. Loses Capability to Equip Itself for Future Conflicts." I'm not big on War, but I think that a country not able to make war on its own will, eventually, find itself in a weakened position. Yes, sure, I knew this, too, would happen "someday" . . . but I wasn't looking forward to reading the news.

Summary: The future viability of our debt as "sterling" in quality is being called into question. Our future ability to make war might already have been comprised (read the 2nd item, it's short -- and scary).

Is the U.S. becoming -- rather quickly -- a banana republic?

12 Jan, 2008

Yahoo has posted a 12/14/07 story from Investor's Business Daily on General Cable -- which I think is worth reading. I'm not invested in BGC stock, I don't intend to be, and I don't recommend it.

Why is the story worthwhile? It goes into the prospects for BOTH international electrification AND the need in the U.S. to do something about our underinvestment (for like 30-40-50 years) in the national power grid. My Favorite Parts:

"It is a multiyear program of rural electrification," Kenny said.

These projects are occurring all over the globe in developing regions, such as Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. These are all areas that General Cable has targeted with its acquisitions.

AND

In the U.S., electric companies are expected to spend on average $14 billion a year over the next decade on distribution infrastructure and installing new equipment, according to the Edison Electric Institute.

The institute, which represents investor-owned utilities, said electric companies are planning to spend $31.5 billion from 2006 to 2009 on the nation's transmission system. In the first five years of this decade, utilities already pumped $28 billion into the system.

Essentially, the facts are: Either the U.S. (and other industrialized nations) does some basic maintenance and expansion investment in its national grid, or a lot more people will spent time in the dark. And the picture from "the other side" (Brazil and other underdeveloped nations) is this: A lot of people are already "in the dark" . . . investment is needed to get them at least into the 20th century.

12 Jan, 2008

One reason I remain skeptical that everyone and every company is gonna go Green is stories that pop up from time to time -- like the one in the Denver Business Journal under the headline, "Lights flickering on Xcel's conversion program."

Xcel is the local utility. No problems here, the company says.

Here's a key section (for me):

But Xcel is failing to convince owners of office buildings -- with thousands of lights on hundreds of floors in buildings throughout downtown and the Tech Center -- to take part by swapping old lights for new ones, said John Baeverstad, owner and president of E-Technologies LLC.

His Denver company has worked with clients big and small since 1994, not only to swap old lights for new, energy-efficient ones, but also to figure out just how many lights are needed for employees to be comfortable.

Baeverstad said the current Xcel program isn't working because the section that deals with commercial lighting is too restrictive and doesn't pay enough money to encourage building owners and managers to swap the lights. And while Xcel allows for a "custom" rebate designed for new technologies, the paperwork and time to get through the program don't appeal to customers, he said.

Notes:

1 -- there's more. Click thru to the piece.

2 -- if everybody wanna be green, why don't everybody BITE on this program, whether it "pays enough money" . . . or not???????

3 -- In the first place -- not to defend Xcel -- why do you have to bribe people to do the right thing?

Paperwork smpaperwork. Why not just "do" an energy-efficient retrofit, save money, do something good for the environment (and grab the PR that goes with that) . . . and forget the damn utility rebate?

I'm not mystified by any of this. I'm not satisfied by it, either. It's just more of the same -- folks talking the talk, but NOT walking the walk.

10 Jan, 2008

A feature in the Waterbury Republican-American (of Waterbury, Conn.) -- 12/6/07 -- featured an electrician "who can also supply you with electricity." It's about David Pearsall, an electrical contractor, who formed Public Power & Utility.

Pearsall's goal, according to the article, is to sell electricity to customers of the state's two largest utilities at lower prices than they charge!

The 825-word article is posted to a utility site.

10 Jan, 2008

Did you know that Underwriters Laboratories has a qualified contractor program?

This isn't necessarily about ELECTRICAL contractors. It's about contractors who do firestopping and SFRM work. SFRM = spray-applied fire resistive materials.

To earn "qualified" status, a designated rep from a contracting firm must pass a three-hour written exam, and the contracting company "must pass a UL-administered audit of its management system."

If you want to know more, see the 8-page first 2007 issue of UL's newsletter, The Fire & Security Authority. Go to page 3.

10 Jan, 2008

A 2,300-word story in the 11/07 issue of Rural Telecommunications -- "Wiring New Home Construction: Getting in on the Ground Floor" -- starts with a paragraph of (true?) tales of home installations gone bad. It's not online, so I'll retype it:


Obviously, those are stories of installs in EXISTING homes! The rest of the story is about new construction, as the headline indicates.

10 Jan, 2008

In 2006, Hanley-Wood -- a publishing company that's HUGE in the housing business -- held a fall event, the American Housing Conference. I was unable to attend (you can't be everywhere). I did manage to download some of the presentations. I can't find a place where H-W talks about a 2007 renewal of the event.

In the past few "slow" weeks, I've been mashing through the file cabinets here in my townhouse, going through files to dump stuff so I can make room for more paper that I won't look at for a few years. I found the one presentation from the '06 AHC that I kept -- titled "The Secret Life of Building Contractors - A Psychographic Study."

Apparently, H-W did a study of readers of two of its magazines -- Builder, the flagship, and Remodeling. There were 1,053 respondents all told. I can't upload this thing, and I can no longer find it online. Here are some of the results of note included in the PowerPoint slide show I downloaded and printed:

10 Jan, 2008

There is a category "Off The Pathen Beat" of posts here on EleBlog -- stuff that isn't about electrical, electrical-related, or elephant stuff. Here's something that caught my eye (and made me laugh recently, on an airplane):

It's from a 12/1/07 Economist article headlined "Just Add Cash," a short feature on "construction on campus."

10 Jan, 2008

NECA has posted to its site the first-ever edition of NECA NewsCast -- an online TV show. This one would be worthwhile if you're interested in solar energy. There's also a segment covering the "labor relations Town Hall" held at the October NECA Convention.

10 Jan, 2008

Doing some financial reading last night, I found some graphics on Hospital Construction. Here's one:




. . . here's what the writer, Chris Puplava, had to say (among a lot of other stuff) --


He wrote this in a column headlined, "Health Care Macro Investment Theme." Here's another relevant graphic:





Find the column here.

08 Jan, 2008

My wife and I finally got downtown this past weekend to see Kandula, the young elephant at The National Zoo (in Washington, D.C.). We've "known" him since he was a baby. We've kicked in $ to help get him stuff.

This is no baby anymore. He weighed in at 4,635 pounds -- at age 6 (his birthday is around Thanksgiving). The docent at the Zoo noted that his mother and aunt go 8,000 to 9,000 pounds, but when Kandula grows up, he's going to go more like 13,000.

That's a lot of elephant!

He looked healthy and happy, although a little bored. Zoos are rough on elephants; in the wild, they cover dozens of miles a day (I am not exaggerating). Basically, the boredom of being in a zoo turns an elephant into an eating machine.

To see pix of what Kandula looked like when he was a lot younger, go here.

08 Jan, 2008

I get the IssueAlert regular columns from Utilipoint (you can, too -- it's a free sub, and they e-mail the thing to you). It's about . . . surprise! . . . utilities! The 12/21 version consisted of a bunch of predictions on what's coming in 2008. There's not a lot of shocking stuff in here (unlike my prediction column!) -- but then, these are utility people. They aren't spozed to leave the safe and proven ground, are they?

Here's the piece. Among other items:


That last item includes an assertion from Utilipoint that "a new power delivery infrastructure will cost $10B to $20B a year for 10 years in the United States alone." I actually thought the cost was going to be a lot higher; that seems a bargain!

08 Jan, 2008

With the Obama-like mania for "Green" in corporate America, there's a chance for everyone to call attention to himself, herself, or itself . . . for about 11 seconds. A company called TerraChoice grabbed this opportunity with a ditty called "The Six Sins of Greenwashing."

I'm not sure "greenwashing" will catch on as a new word. I don't know who TerraChoice is, or wants to be. But the thing is worth reading and thinking about.

08 Jan, 2008

Panduit has posted a RealComm Q-and-A on "connected buildings" -- here. It's not very long; there's a bit of stuff about Convergence in there; I found it interesting.
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08 Jan, 2008

Most of my resolutions in the past have disappeared before January ended. This year's self-promise on the EleBlog is to add more stuff about productivity-boosting products and ideas, and to do more about pre-fab. Thus, I have added two categories.

Additionally, I am hoping to provide more info + links on audio + video stuff you can find on the web. That category was added last year, but my "resolution" is to post more A/V links.

We'll see how long any of that lasts . . .

08 Jan, 2008

The October issue of a newsletter from HUD -- Research Works -- included a short article on Panelized Construction. The article is apparently taken from a recent study by HUD -- Panelized Wall Systems: Making The Connections. The link should take you to the PDF; the story starts on page 4; there are links to more info on page 5.

I'm thinking more and more construction is going to move "off site" -- with subcontractors (including electricals) doing more pre-fab. And I'm thinking that will be accompanied by pre-fab of building components (or entire buildings) . . . and this is NOT going to be limited to residential.

If you want to go straight to the source and download the 70-page "panelized wall systems" report PDF (4+ MB) from HUD -- go here.

07 Jan, 2008

Obviously, that's not the price of coffee at Starbucks. Dunkin' Donuts? Shampoo? Bleach? Orange Juice?

No.


. . . from a Bloomberg item on the increasing open interest (among speculators, obviously) evidenced in $200/barrel crude oil optins.

06 Jan, 2008

A Wall Street Journal story -- posted to another site -- runs 1,130 words and details how TCP Inc. makes 70% of the CFLs sold in the U.S. The company's products are sold under private labels (someone else's name is on them).

06 Jan, 2008

The Friday 1/4 data tsunami included BLS data for 11/07 employment in electrical contracting. Production worker employment in the EC Industry was 739,600 (subject to revision), up 3.03% from one year earlier, but down from the 749,200 employed one month earlier.

It's not shocking to see the # of employed in any construction niche tick down as the year ends. It's hard to look at the numbers -- at this point -- and tease something meaningful out of them.

However, this IS worth noting: The 11/07 employment was figure was higher (by just a hair) than 11/02 . . . so this is the highest monthly employment of production workers in the EC Industry since 11/01 (a very good year for the industry).

06 Jan, 2008

According to the BLS, average monthly employment in construction in 2007 was 5,871,000 -- a number with a (p) next to it, which means it's subject to revision. That's a hair below the 5,900,000 estimate for 2006.

For December, the estimated 5,656,000 employed was almost 2% below the fiure for 12/06.

Yes, that's despite everything that's happened in residential new construction. The reason (as noted here previously): The BLS did not count the many employed illegals in the residential market . . . so when they were laid off, they were not (and are not now) counted as unemployed.

That's skewing the numbers. How badly? I don't know -- and neither does anyone else.

06 Jan, 2008

I am finding all government numbers -- all of 'em -- to be unbelievable. I'm not sure WHAT is being measured. The national employment numbers, out Friday 1/4/08 for December 2007, are an example. Most of the major media reports focused on the low gain in the # of employed people -- I'm not going to deal with that here.

Let's, instead, take a look inside what's going on. I downloaded figures from 2000 to compare.


Now, there is some INFLATION in there (as I keep stressing). I went to the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator. If I used it correctly, the gain for 2007 over 2000 is more like 20%, subtracting inflation OUT.

OK. So the GDP gain is, more or less -- in inflation-adjusted terms -- 20% since the end of 2000.


But let's deal right now with some facts.


So to simplify the math: 10.409 million of the 11.515 million jobs added in the seven years to 12/07 were in Services (with 27% of those in Government). Or to say it another way: We've managed to increase GDP by 20% in real terms in the seven-year period despite all of these numbers.

CONCLUSION

I already knew something was wrong with GDP. After all, if I throw a rock through your window, GDP goes up. That's some kind of measure, eh?

But there seems to be a lot wrong here. If all of the measures are wrong -- are measuring incorrectly, are being manipulated somehow, or are producing measurements that are meaningless -- then when we start to run the numbers against each other, we came up with . . .

garbage.

02 Jan, 2008

NAREIT = Natl. Assn. of Real Estate Investment Trusts. I found a place online where you can hear audio files from the group's Nov 07 annual convention. It's not big excitement, but since REITs own real estate, and real estate ownership trends drive commercial construction, some of it might be of interest. Included there: The first group of presentations (including "CEO Marketplace Video Overview") and the "Real Estate Continuum Video Overview." Click here to see all.

02 Jan, 2008

Reading a 12/20 clip from The Arizona Daily Star on solar energy -- it referred to the idea that AZ is to become "the Saudia Arabia of solar energy" -- I came across this paragraph (near the end of the 1,100-word article) on a solar installation put in place by Tuscon Electric Power:


I'd like to know (the article didn't say) how many kWh the array has generated, and what the operating cost is WITHOUT the cost of cutting grass.

02 Jan, 2008

What's in the new Energy Law (signed by GW Bush last month)? I know what's not in it -- the extension of the commercial building tax deduction (CBTD), which has helped create a lot of lighting retrofit work, from a 12/31/08 expiration to 12/31/13. They took that out, the morons.

However, I wasn't sure about what IS in the law. Craig DiLouie did an analysis for the Lighting Controls Association, and has posted a 3,000-word analysis (including six tables) -- here.

Obviously, Craig's concern -- and the LCA's -- is LIGHTING. So there ain't a lot about automobile mileage standards in his write-up.

- - - - -

FWIW, here's the Eleblog Take on the auto mileage standards: Did they really boost the mileage requirements but push that out to 2020? Crude oil is at $98 per barrel today. What the heck are we waiting for?

02 Jan, 2008

AGC's economist, Ken Simonson, regularly updates "Quick Facts About the Construction Industry." I don't know anyone else who does this; Ken should get credit. I've chosen to post the whole thing below; I think Ken wants this OUT there, not kept secret.

Construction is a significant source of jobs. The industry provides jobs for 7.6 million employees—more than 5% of the total nonfarm workforce. In contrast to the steep drop in homebuilding, nonresidential construction employment grew at least 0.9% from November 2006 to November 2007. This estimate is probably understated, since many “residential” construction employees are now doing nonresidential work, even though their employers are still counted as residential contractors.

Construction jobs are good-paying jobs. In November 2007, seasonally adjusted hourly earnings in construction averaged $21.27 per hour, 21% higher than the average for all private industry nonsupervisory workers.

Construction makes a disproportionately large contribution to GDP. For the past eight quarters, investment in private nonresidential structures has grown faster than gross domestic product (GDP). Construction spending totaled $1.16 trillion in October 2007; nonresidential was $647 billion (56%).

Construction is a substantial purchaser of U.S. manufactured products. In 2006, shipments of construction materials and supplies topped $500 billion—nearly 11% of total U.S. manufacturers’ shipments. Shipments of construction machinery totaled $36 billion—11% of all U.S. machinery.

Materials costs are a major problem. From December 2003 to October 2007, the producer price index for inputs to construction jumped 28%, twice the 13% rise in the consumer price index.

The typical construction firm size is very small. In 2005, there were 788,000 construction establishments with 6.8 million paid employees. Thus, average employment was less than nine per establishment. (An establishment is a permanent business location. Most construction firms have only one establishment.) More than two million additional construction firms had no paid employees—mainly self-employed individuals but also partnerships and holding companies

Small business is big in construction. In 2005, 91% of construction establishments had fewer than 20 employees. Only 1% had 100 or more.

Construction is a low-margin industry. Internal Revenue Service figures for 2004 show that the 722,000 corporations in construction had net income (less deficit) of $47 billion, or 3.7% of total receipts of $1.3 trillion. That was considerably below the all-industry average margin of 4.9%.

Construction is a high-turnover industry in terms of entering and exiting firms. Census data prepared for the Office of Advocacy of the U.S. Small Business Administration shows that 99,000 of 630,000 construction firms with employees in 2004 (16%) opened since 2003, while 77,000 firms closed

The 2007 Construction Industry Annual Financial Survey, conducted by the Construction Financial Management Assn. (www.cfma.org), included responses from 756 companies. The net margin before income taxes in the latest fiscal year averaged 2.7%. The median return on assets was 8.8%.

02 Jan, 2008

I think no one else has reported on this anywhere: In its past three monthly construction forecast releases, McGraw-Hill Construction has chronicled a decline in the outlook for construction.

Facts:

• MHC uses data from its Dodge reporting service. It's generally thought to be as accurate as one can get, and especially applicable to most significant new construction projects and large rehabilitations & renovations.

• MHC reports these data as "the $ value of new construction starts." It's as close as we can get to a realistic look at what's coming.

• August's report (issued 9/27) showed constructruction up 6%. September's report (10/23) showed a 9% slide. October's (11/21) showed the $ value of new construction starts "unchanged" from September. And now the November report (12/19) showed an 8% month-to-month fall.

Here's a link to the December report. Each month is posted online.


WHAT THIS MEANS (maybe):

I tend to look at the bottom table in the report (year-to-date construction starts, unadjusted totals). As of the end of November:


Now factor in inflation. I believe if you do that, nonresidential and nonbuilding are flat to down vs. 2006, and overall construction is down more like 15%.


NUMBERS GAME

On an UNadjusted basis -- which is how MHC reports these numbers (in the leadlines, as noted in the 3rd bullet above), total construction has gone from +6% in the August report (9/27) to -8% in the November report (12/19). I am not going to get into how I don't like economic adjustments here -- but I don't. In any case, accoridng to the ADjusted MHC numbers as presented, nonresidential building was +16% as of the August report, and is now -14% (as of the December report).

Does that mean something? I don't know. I've been following this report for years -- but I generally give credence ONLY to the unadjusted numbers.

02 Jan, 2008

One month ago, the FedGov reported total construction in the 10 months to Halloween was down 2.8%.

Today, the 11/07 report came out (download PDF here). For the 11-months to end-of-Nov, construction was down 2.5%.

November 2007 came in at $98.57B, vs. $98.47B one year earlier. That's $100 million more in construction (I doubt if the federal reporting apparatus is really that accurate).

Private residential was down 17.8%.

Private nonresidential was up 18.1%.

Total public construction - up 12.7%.

See the EleBlog report on last month's numbers here. The numbers haven't changed a lot.