30 May, 2007
Latest Columns
Also of note: The 5/23 column included highlights from "formal" conversations I've had in May with four electrical contractors. CLICK HERE.
One week earlier, the site posted my column providing a bit of from-the-conference coverage of the Environments for Aging event (the first ever) and GridWeek (also the first ever). CLICK HERE.
30 May, 2007
Housing: Going In Circles
See the piece - CLICK HERE. The writer asks: If the Mortgage Bankers Association's measure of the # of people filling out loan applications to buy a home is down 18% from its peak (which came in 9/05) -- how the F can sales have fallen by LESS than 18%?
OK -- I added the F.
Here's a datapoint: The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home price Index showed a 1.4% drop in the first quarter. Boy, that doesn't seem like much. See the Associated Press report - CLICK HERE.
CLICK HERE to see a release from Pulte Homes, which is reducing its workforce by 16%. That's not bad, but according to a news write-up (HERE) , Pulte had already shaved its workforce by 25%. That means, compared to the peak, the company's headcount is at about 62%.
Maybe it will take a long time to unwind the house market. And maybe the process of unwinding won't be enjoyable to watch. Further, perhaps there will be damage to parts of the economy that as yet aren't paying attention to And still: I suspect that I will end up paying for the stupidity of lenders and borrowers, as I'll be taxed to pay for the U.S. government bail-out of people and institutions that (in my opinion) KNEW BETTER!
29 May, 2007
Scan: 12 Blog Posts Of Note
Why Your Blackberry Causes Speakers To Buzz
...at a recent conference, I heard buzzing from the room speakers, repeatedly. It went on in several rooms. I knew it wasn't my imagination!
Whither The Wearable Computer?
From a blogger on Construction.com
How Will The Corn Ethanol Bubble Affect Construction?
Jim Haughey of BuildingTeamForecast.com seems to be really hitting a neat stride. This is a good headline, isn't it? I hadn't thot of it.
Google: Automatic 3D Model Construction (?)
OK -- so maybe Google WILL end up owning the word.
What's Green Got To Do With Energy?
Perhaps when you hear "green building" you think of energy savings, energy conservation, renewables, etc. Read this brief article on an award-winning building. I think the things done to win the award were worthwhile, but I don't see them as being worthy of note. That is to say: These are things that any building owner/operator should do -- routinely. And there is nothing worthwhile in this "award-winning green building" on saving energy.
Magazine Blogging Indicator?
At one time, the "magazine cover indicator" was a contrarian's delight. When Business Week put "The Death of Equities?" on its cover (with a heaping helping of the color black, as I recall) . . . it was time to buy stocks (I think it was 1982). Now the magazine has started a blog devoted to Green Business. Has it (already) become time to fade that trend?
Should Greenspan Be Allowed To Talk?
I'm an admirer of Herb Greenberg. In this brief note, he makes a very interesting point. If you've not heard it, there's been a consensus reached among the bullish crowd on Wall Street -- Alan Greenspan should shut up! Read Herb's comment to see why it's a bunch of . . . well, bull!
Supreme Court Ruling On Carbon Dioxide Means
More Action On Energy Efficiency, Green, Etc.(?)
Optimism abounds.
Energy Savings Survey: Shocking Results
That's the headline. I don't think you're going to be shocked, but you might learn something (I did).
Light Wars Ahead
For reasons known only to the blogger who posted this, she managed to NOT name "one major manufacturer" who threatens to greatly upgrade the bad-old incandescent lamp. OK -- I'll do the dirty work. The company is named General Electric.
Bullish On Perini
Not me. But someone is.
A Chinese Outsourcer Speaks Out
I found this to be really interesting. It's short. Be sure to read the comment (there was only one when I visited). No, I didn't write it!
(More)
27 May, 2007
Non-Res -- As Good As It Ever Gets
27 May, 2007
Arc Flash Misconceptions
2 -- When equipment is determined to be a Hazard Risk Category 0, it is assumed that all other equipment fed downstream is also (that).
3 -- There is no need to access equipmient rated 240V or less for arc flash hazards.
4 -- There is no need to assess equipment for arc flash hazards beyond the motor control center.
5 -- An arc flash hazard assessment is enough for OSHA compliance.
CLICK HERE to see the online article (look around when you get there -- check out the sidebars and accompanying stuff)
27 May, 2007
How You Feel & The Ceiling
27 May, 2007
Shortage of Cabling Technicians
In his 5/07 edition, Frank's comments -- "Bisbee's BUZZ" -- covers a lot of ground. I won't repeat everything here, but you should read it. Here's the part that got me to re-read the thing:
Mike Heisler of CSC told us the shortage of trained technicians is being felt all over the Southeast. We checked with Barry Simons (ADS Telecom), Brian Chancey (Area Communications), Steve Strumlauf (AIC – American International Communications), and Michael Lohr (Ensource.net). All of these companies have reported outstanding business growth, but a real shortage in trained technicians to meet their increased needs.
CLICK HERE to read the whole thing. It's worth your time.
27 May, 2007
Gas Prices: Making It Look Better
"Still another way to compare the cost of gasoline is to compare gasoline expenditures for the economy as a whole as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using this measurement, gasoline expenditures, even at today’s high prices, represent less than 3.0 percent of GDP, compared to 4.6 percent in 1980 and 1981."
Still another way of saying it is that per-gallon gasoline prices are at or near an all-time high. What's more, the entire edifice that leads to you pumping gasoline into your vehicle is fragile -- from where crude comes from (Venezuela, Mexico, Nigeria, and various Middle Eastern locales) to how it's transported (the straits of Hormuz are 21,000 feet wide) to how we process it once it gets here (not enough U.S. refineries). You can throw in the vulnerability to hurricanes, the fact that Mexico has totally F-ed up its Cantarell oil field, the possibility that we are at or near Peak Oil's actual peak(!), and much more.
OK -- so maybe gasoline at $3.35/gal. isn't an all-time high. But we will be at $5.25. And that doesn't seem all that far away. EIA should just shut up about this stuff and stick to reporting the data (which is why it exists). They're going to have to shrink the government in a few years, when revenues start to fall drastically behind expenses for the FedGov -- and with idiotic comments like this, EIA is looking very cuttable.
See the 5/23 TWIP here.
25 May, 2007
'Buildings 2.0'
Essentially, "Buildings 0.5" was the first-generation of buildings, and we worked our way up to Buildings 1.0. The idea of "2.0" is to show that there is a new generation of buildings, structures that are interoperable, energy-efficient, and (of course) "smart" or intelligent.
While you might not be wild about "Buildings 2.0," it is needed. SOMETHING is needed to provide a single rubric for the entire movement toward
intelligent buildings
interoperable buildings
integrated building systems
intergrated building controls
automated buildings
. . . and one heck of a lot else.
For background, CLICK HERE to see a press release from this past week's BuilConn event. CLICK HERE to download (2-page PDF) a white paper Anto put together a while ago on the "Buildings 2.0" idea.
(More)
25 May, 2007
News from LightFair
25 May, 2007
'Innovative' Products - LightFair
(More)
25 May, 2007
Copper Report
Average daily mine production of recoverable copper fell by
6% in January from that in December to the lowest level since
January 2006, according to data compiled by the U.S.
Geological Survey.
Production of refined copper in January fell
by 4% from that in December, yet remained about 4% above
that for January 2006. Consumption of refined copper in
January rose by 25% from December’s depressed level, yet
remained about 21% below the unusually strong consumption
reported for January 2006.
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) (New Orleans,
LA), acquired Phelps Dodge Corp. on March 19, exchanging
each share of Phelps Dodge common stock for 0.67 shares of
FCX common stock and $88.00 in cash. FCX reported that
production from its U.S. operations declined by 8% [13,000
metric tons (t)] in the first quarter 2007 from that in the fourth
quarter of 2006 and was 6% below that for the first quarter of
2006.
FCX attributed lower first quarter output to lower ore
grades (Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc., 2007, p. 3, 15).
Similarly, Rio Tinto plc (London, United Kingdom) reported
that production of 54,100 t in the first quarter of 2007 at the
Bingham Canyon Mine in Utah was down by 19% from that in
the fourth quarter of 2006 owing to lower ore grades and
reduced recoveries. The smelter operating rate, however, was
10% above the past 5-year average rate and was approaching
record monthly levels set in 2002 (Rio Tinto plc, 2007, p. 4).
References Cited
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc., 2007, Freeport-McMoran Copper &
Gold Inc. reports first-quarter 2007 results: Phoenix, AZ, Freeport-McMoran
Copper & Gold Inc. news release, April 25, 21 p.
Rio Tinto plc, 2007, First quarter 2007 operations review: London, United
Kingdom, Rio Tinto plc news release, April 19, 18 p.
23 May, 2007
Homes Of 2015
NAHB's House Keys consumer news segment recently featured some stuff that will be included in "new homes in 2015." CLICK HERE to see the item.
The average (2,330-sq.-ft.) new home in 2015 will have these standard technology components:
" . . . a fiber-optic network, programmable thermostat, structured wiring system, multiline phone system."
But the "upscale" (4,000+ sq. ft.!) new home will have:
"Technology like programmable thermostats, structured wiring, a multi-line phone system, multi-zone HVAC, remote-control fireplaces, instant hot water in bathrooms and kitchens, a lighting control system and a monitored burglar/fire/toxic gas alarm system."
23 May, 2007
Retailers Race To Bottom
It's a bit off-topic, but a column by John Caldwell of Electronic House magazine caught my eye. He talks about how "big-box A/V retailers are cutting staff and closing stores."
My favorite part is his "memo to Circuit City" -- kinda of in the middle of the piece: "Why are you bent on taking away the one advantage (your people) you arguably still have left in the marketplace? . . . why are you so busy seemingly benton racing to the bottom?"
If memory serves, the talented people that Circuit City hsa dupmed (3,400 of them) were making about $19/hour. They are going to be replaced @ $7.50/hour. CLICK HERE to see Caldwell's thots fully expressed.
23 May, 2007
Major Change - to LEDs
I wandered around the LightFair show in New York City a few weeks ago. I was struck by a number of things, but mostly by the number of booths that said something about LEDs. I didn't expect that.
Now comes Color Kinetics Inc., which predicts (CLICK HERE to see an article) that 75% of commercial lighting in the U.S. will come from LED sources by 2030.
Some facts:
a. The percentage right now is probably very close to 0%.
b. It's 2007. The year 2030 is 23 years away.
c. If CK is right, we're going from 0 to 75 in roughly 8,500 days.
I don't know how to evaluate any prediction made for decades from now. But I do know that, if CK's vision becomes reality, that will be very good news for everyone.
23 May, 2007
Lighting Law Extension (?)
23 May, 2007
Research: The Digital Kitchen
The International Home Alliance and CABA are doing research together (CABA = Continental Automated Buildings Association; the C used to stand for Canada, I think). The most recent info, released two weks ago: Results of the Digital Kitchen Study.
Download the release (3-page PDF) with a CLICK HERE.
Among other things I learned:
a. The kitchen is "the nerve center of the house."
b. Folks use their kitchens to entertain, watch TV, do homework, pay bills, and more.
c. Homeowners aren't interested in adding a desk or workstation to their kitchens.
d. "The primary kitchen users is also the primary schedule keeper" -- and as a result, a "digital calendar" was the most preferred concept of 22 ideas tested.
e. Some folks also wanted a "wireless recipe projection system."
23 May, 2007
10 Home Tech Trends
"10 Tech Trends for Custom Homes" was the headline on an article in the March issue of Custom Builder. Included:
1. Home Theater
2. Home Health Care Products & Installation.
5. Lighting & Automation.
6. Security Systems.
. . . and a more entertainment-oriented stuff, including iPod docking stations. CLICK HERE to see the 1,400-word thing.
20 May, 2007
IT Kills Companies
"Hackett" (first name Greg) got into a Q-and-A with Koch. Here's a bit of that:
KOCH: So you think IT really has improved productivity across all industries?
HACKETT: Oh I think it’s definitely proven. But then I also found that SG&A [Sales, General and Administration—essentially the costs of running a business] has gone up by 40 percent—canceling out the gains in COGS. And what’s driven SG&A overall has been a little bit of regulatory costs, but primarily IT costs. IT cost is the fastest growing cost in a corporation today.
Wanna read the rest? You definitely should! CLICK HERE.20 May, 2007
Utility Worker Shortage
20 May, 2007
CNO = Chief Energy Officer
See a news report on the H & K stuff by CLICKING HERE.
I am not casting doubt on the content of this release.
- - - - -
However, I remember the run-up to the defense of Kuwait and The First Gulf War. If you remember, we (the people of the U.S.) were being whipped up into a frenzy to help defend Saudi Arabia, invade Kuwait and restore its elite to power, and beat the crap out of Saddam Hussein.
Here's what I remember about this:
b. We had no treaty with Kuwait. We are not committed to defend them.
c. I could be wrong on this, but I do not believe we had a mutual-defense treaty with the Saudis, either. We did not have a permanent military base in that country.
In the middle of the run-up, the Pro-War side looked around . . . and saw a notable lack of enthusiasm among the American people for a war. They found a young Kuwaiti woman. She testified before a Congressional committee -- in words that were shown REPEATEDLY on broadcast TV -- that the Iraqi Army came into a hospital and bayoneted babies.
I am not kidding. This is a fact. I input a few words into Google's search box and, lo and behold, THIS turned up.
And of course, if you bother to read it, the item notes that it was Hill & Knowlton that arranged all of this. To tell you the truth, I can't believe the company that perpetrated this pack of lies -- on the American people, and on Congress -- remains in business.
In an ideal world, of course, one would hope the people who did this (the folks who worked at H & K) would be executed for Treason. What else would you call it when a PR company engages in emotionally manipulating the American people into going to war . . . including arranging a Big Lie before a Congressional committee?
20 May, 2007
Energy Savings NOT Pursued
To download the thing, CLICK HERE.
20 May, 2007
PDAs, Lawsuits & An EC
Read the rest of it (most of it about the PDAs, not the EC case) by CLICKING HERE.
20 May, 2007
Belden vs. Monster Cable
18 May, 2007
Fluorescents Flunk 'Wife Test'
We (as a group) protested . . . there wasn't enough time to read the paper. Don't you all take the train or the bus to school, he asked? We couldn't deny it. That's when you'll read the paper.
But, one of the geniuses among us (was't me) protested -- there isn't enough room on the train to spread out and read the paper!
Boy, we had him there. For about 3 seconds. He then stood up in front of the class and, step by step, demonstrated how to fold a large tabloid newspaper carefully, reading one quarter-section of each page at a time . . . how to turn the pages in a tight space . . .
. . . and he shut us up.
That's my way of saying: I grew up reading The New York Times. I was a 14-year-old sophmore. I've been reading it every since. Perhaps as a result -- either of NYC-bred snobbishness or a valid assessment of relative quality -- I still think the Times is a much better newspaper than The Washington Post.
= = = = =
Relevance here: An article from the 4/30 Post, which ran on Page One (below the fold) -- headlined, "Fluorescent Bulbs Are Known to Zap Domestic Tranquility." From the article:
CLICK HERE to see the article (I don't know if you'll have to register or not; it's free in any case). It included this:
18 May, 2007
Sam Ervin's Son
If you're my age, your mind might occasionally wander and think: "Wow, we could really use those guys right about now."
These thoughts were stimulated by the fact that Sam Ervin IV (son of Sam, so to speak) was on the agenda at GridWeek. To see what he's been up to in the past 51+ years, CLICK HERE.
18 May, 2007
Podcasts From GridWeek
I discovered archived Podcasts. CLICK HERE to see/hear them (you'll go to a page with links to four daily podcasts). I have not pre-screened them, so I can't testify as to quality, etc.
Seeing this info, tho, reminded me that I had intended to add a Category of "stuff" on this site -- online video, podcasts, etc. I called it Audio + Video.
More to come!
18 May, 2007
'The Profitable Project'
Thus far we've produced just ONE of the CDs, but we just got done taping #2. It's a pretty neat idea; I can say that, because it was NOT my doing! To take a look at the concept -- CLICK HERE.
(More)
16 May, 2007
Infrastructure Investment - Elsewhere
Included in there is the opinion of Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management. He says: "We think there's $35 trillion of new infrastructure to be funded in the next 25 years." According to the write-up: "Of the $35 trillion penciled in for investment in the next quarter-century, he said, just $11 trillion is destined for the 'developed' world, the rest for China, India, and other such nations on the move."
Assuming Flatt knows something, that's $14 trillion in infrastructure construction and equipment purchases in the next 25 years in developing nations. That averages out to $560 billion/year.
16 May, 2007
Living In Interesting Times
One need not believe in evolution to think that humans are on the improve. Someday, some genius will put together a bunch of things that are lying around and produce the battery that we need. It will be light. It will need little or no attention. It will last forever. And it will store a bunch of power, and deliver 100% of it on demand.
Such a thing would make solar PV pay off big-time. It would make electric cars a reasonable alternative. It would obviate the need for hydrogen storage tanks at filling stations that come from fantasy land–they need to be humongous, impervious to leaks, and not have recurrent problems with, uh, explosions.
Wake me up when the battery thing happens, OK?
16 May, 2007
Road To Energy Indepence
16 May, 2007
Sale - Datacom Items
16 May, 2007
Buildings - Guest Editorial
His 4/30 entry is right on, in my opinion. Here's the (long-ish) part that I like -- and a link to it (CLICK HERE -- see the 4/30 piece). This is a heck of a read!
= = = = =
But it brings me to my theme for today, which is how I traveled yesterday to Saratoga's neighboring town to south, Ballston Spa (the county seat), one of a hundred decrepitating little Main Street burgs in upstate New York, and how it seemed to be visibly rotting into the ground to an extent that even I, after decades of laborious landscape pathology studies, found rather shocking.
Spring comes late up here. I was down in Georgia back in February and the daffodils there were already gone by, for goodness sake. But up here, they had barely sprouted as of the last week in April. The landscape (and townscape) had a horrible sort of laid bare look -- like an old person in the intensive care unit getting a sponge bath in bed. The ground itself looked scrofulous, with vast quantities of plastic flotsam littering the roadside swales, and tatters of windblown plastic supermarket bags hanging off the sumac bushes, and no foliage yet to hide any of it.
But it was the buildings that really got me. You have to wonder: have Americans forgotten how to build dignified houses, or are we simply not dignified people anymore? Virtually every building put up after 1950 looked terrible and many of them were rotting into the ground. Most of them are little more than elaborate packing crates with a few doo-dads screwed on -- exactly the kind of buildings, by the way, that Venturi and Scott Brown celebrated in their writings. They called them "decorated sheds," the vernacular expression of the mainstream American soul.
The design failures of these things might be attributed to a loss of knowledge and a lack of attention to details, but I think a deeper explanation has to do with the diminishing returns of technology. We've never had more awesome power tools for workers in the building trades. We have compound miter saws, electric spline joiners, laser-guided tape measures, and many other nifty innovations, and we've never seen, in the aggregate, worse work done by so many carpenters. For most of them, apparently, getting a plain one-by-four door-surround to meet at a 45-degree miter without a quarter-inch gap is asking too much. In other words, we now have amazing tools and no skill. What you wonder is whether the latter is a function of the former. Is the work so bad because we expect the tools to have all the skill?
Another issue is the choice of materials. As you march down the decades from the 1950s, the materials-of-choice for finishing the exterior are more and more materials not found in nature. Aluminum siding was a big favorite for a while -- and you can always spot it because of the dents below the three-foot high level, where the lawnmower has shot stones at the panels for decades. After the 1980s, there is a distinct acceleration in the use of vinyl for practically everything. The vinyl clapboards, soffits, window-surrounds, et cetera, are often little more than stapled onto the house. And naturally they begin to sag and pull apart instantly. After twenty-odd years of that you end up with a house that looks like a birthday present wrapped by a five-year-old.
Another thing you get is a fantastic accumulation of automobile exhaust in the zone starting about four feet under the eves. The pathetic slobs who live in these buildings never wash this patina of grime off their houses -- because the vinyl cladding was sold to them as being "maintenance-free."
At this time of year, before the shrubs leaf out, you can see that each house is surrounded by an asteroid belt of discarded effluvia -- plastic children's toys, broken appliances, odds-and-ends of sporting equipment, all oxidizing, polymerizing, and delaminating under the remorseless ultraviolet light. Likewise, the things that have come to be attached to the houses -- the entrance porticoes and decks built out of chemicalized lumber (which has not been painted in twenty-seven years) -- these things are also, finally, coming apart, torquing out of plumb, disintegrating, in short yielding to all the disordering forces of entropy.
Paradoxically, the buildings which tend to be in better condition are the historic ones, the ones built before modular-snap-together materials existed, the ones made of materials found in nature, the ones built with non-electric hand tools. They manage to resist the natural ravages of time. Their roofs were designed to bear snow loads and to shed water in a way that protected the rest of the structure. The materials never promised to be maintenance-free, so the owners and caretakers naturally perform the required routine repairs. They stand there as reminders that our notion of progress-through-technology is a slippery thing.
Poor little Ballston Spa. The whole town is rotting into the ground and the folks who live there are either too poor, too addled on methadrine, too busy buying plasma TVs, too greedy strip-mining their buildings for Section-8 rentals, or too conditioned by failure and disappointment to take care of their property. It's a self-reinforcing feedback loop, of course, and it's happening all over the nation. We've succeeded in building too many things that aren't worth caring about, and the end result is that we now live in a land where nothing is taken care of.
16 May, 2007
Found: Herod's Tomb
But . . . I have an abiding interest in archaeology. So we interrupt the regularly scheduled programming for this:
Herod's Tomb Discovered (!!!!!)
News report from Israeli newspaper
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/856808.html
News @ Hebrew U.
http://www.hunews.huji.ac.il/articles.asp?cat=6&artID=773
Institute of Arch., Hebrew U. of Jerusalem
http://archaeology.huji.ac.il/news/newfound.asp
11 pictures on site of German newspaper der Spiegel
(find the navigate thing above the first picture -- which is a knockout!)
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/0,5538,21444,00.html
Biblical Archaeology Society -- I read the BAS magazine,
Biblical Archaeology Review (BAR), and have for many, many years.
http://www.bib-arch.org/herodium/bswbHerodiumMainPage.asp
Previous article on looking for the tomb (by the guy who found it)
-- from a back issue of BAR
http://www.bib-arch.org/herodium/bswbHerodiumSubPage.asp?PubID=BSBA&Volume=9&Issue=3&ArticleID=1
14 May, 2007
Recent TEDMAG.com columns
Recent posts of columns to TEDMAG.com include:
Tree Huggers & Non-Green People – about stupidity, hypocrisy, and more.
Copper: Red Hot, Again – and -- Copper Sustains A Bounce – every time I resolve to take a break from writing about copper, something interesting happens. I apologize but, well -- here's more.
Gloom & Doom vs. Staying Alert – I’m a “gloom and doomer.” That’s bad, most people would say. But if you pay attention, what the gloom-and-doom people are saying is – there’s something we can do, NOW, about (problem X) . . . let’s act! Case in point: Peak Oil.
Lighting Retrofits – this one outlines eight benefits a given end-user might derive from buying into a lighting retrofit.
14 May, 2007
CFLs vs. Incandescents
This is a long post. I don’t usually do that. But I have been reading and thinking about the whole global trend of substituting CFLs for incandescent light bulbs. Here’s some stuff about that.
Eric Corey Freed, who is the answer guy at GreenerBuidlings.com for the “Ask The Green Architect” column, recently devoted 1,700 words to the question of mercury in compact fluorescents (CFLs) and their suitability as replacements for incandescents.
I have several conflicting notions bouncing around in my head. Freed's words helped clarify my thinking (at least temporarily!) --
- Freed did a good job of presenting the story. CLICK HERE to see it.
- Included in his round-up are negatives on fluorescent light. I tend to over-weight these. I really do LIKE incandescent light, in comparison.
- Last week, I spent a day at LightFair, the big annual lighting show and conference. The show was HUGE – it took forever to walk. My unscientific survey showed that at least 1 out of every 3 exhibitors (manufacturers serving the lighting industry) included products for LED lighting in their booths.
So my question is: Why rush to replace incandescents, despite their energy-wasting reality? Why not just wait for LED lighting to grow up?
There are several other things I don’t like about the pro-CFL movement:
a. Freed lists four negatives for CFLs in his article (he’s was trying to be balanced). I wasn’t aware of the THEFT problem with them in public places.
b. Wal-Mart is using CFLs to position itself as pro-environment. As I think Wal-Mart is clearly evil, I see the company's PR use of CFLs as a bad thing.
c. Initial purchase costs for CFLs are very high. I know, I know -- they will more than pay this back. However, I also know that bulbs are fragile (they break); electrical products do not always deliver their full expected lifetimes; and CFL technology is relatively complicated (vs. an incandescent). You want to have simple technology, NOT more-complicated stuff, if you can at all help it.
Finally, there are several items about this that keep bouncing around in my mind.
IMPROVED INCANDESCENTS – General Electric came out with a release recently that says it is going to improve the efficiency of incandescent technology by 2010. It appears GE has had this idea on a shelf for a number of years. If that’s correct (and I have only suspicions, not proof) -- what was the company waiting for?
- - - - -
CIRCA 2010-2012 – if you look ahead to 2010-2012 in general lighting, here’s a possibility:
n improved incandescent lighting technology
n CFLs
n LEDs with better technology than is possible today.
It ought to be interesting. Someone might have suspicions about the progress of LED technology. The “problem” with LEDs – for those in the lighting and electrical industries – is that they last forever.
Consider what will happen when we routinely put an LED “bulb” in a fixture to replace an incandescent or fluorescent. It might not need replacement for 10 years! That changes the lighting business -- considerably -- on all levels.
- - - - -
OLD FOLKS – I don’t have the scientific background to know whether old people have more trouble with fluorescent light than with incandescent. I will do some research (I have to, as I keep writing articles and columns about the electrical ramifications of an aging population and the “aging in place” trend).
What’s clear from my research thus far is that old folks need A LOT MORE light than they are probably getting. It takes three times the illumination for a 65-year-old to see as clearly as a 20-year-old.
It’s clear that incandescent light does a better job of imitating the Sun than does fluorescent. We human beings evolved to live under the Sun. I’m not sure that the “blue” light from fluorescents will be bad or good for old folks.
But considering that we have 76 million people – born in the “baby boom” -- who, by 2024, will be age 60 or older (or dead) . . . we ought to be, collectively, thinking about this.
# # #
14 May, 2007
Is It A BIG Bandwagon?
I love it when politicians talk about “a big tent” when referencing their parties. In a country with only two political parties, how obvious is this?
The question for the environmentalists – and those concerned with saving energy (which I hope includes electrical people) – is whether or not to jump on the “green” bandwagon.
Mark me down as skeptical.
I ran across an article, in exploring the Grist.org Web site, that’s subheaded: “With big biz jumping on the green bandwagon, should activists cheer or jeer?” The article includes this winning sentence:
“Sustainable living has gone from granola fringe to glossy fashion.”
I think that’s exactly right. As a contrarian, that makes me extremely suspicious. Read the article (CLICK HERE). It’s a “think” piece from the perspective of the enviros. Even if you aren’t one of ‘em, you might learn something (who knows?).
According to the author, the greens have to move away from “either/or” thinking toward a “both/and” mentality.
Put me down for a wait-and-see attitude.
14 May, 2007
George Gilder, Idiot
Somehow, I ran across a December post on Gildertech.com – home of George Gilder. He’s a right-wing mainstay, the guy who invented the word “telecosm” . . . and remembered (at least by me) as wildly bullish on technology. He gave subscribers to his various publications NO HINT that the end was coming.
I assume that’s because he did not see what was coming in 1999-2000-2001. Yet he was celebrated (before and, I guess, after) as some kind of visionary.
A visionary with a damn limited field of vision, we'll say.
If this sounds bitter, it’s NOT because I am. I did not believe Gilder for a moment. I have read him for years – even subscribing to some of his newsletters from time to time (and they are expensive!) – to use him and the people with whom he is allied as Contrary Indicators.
In other words, if Gilder says the sky is blue, I expect to see Bright Green when I look up. And I am never disappointed!
See a December post from Gilder on the energy crisis (CLICK HERE). Here’s my favorite part:
“The only reason for an energy crisis is the callousness of greens toward the environment, which they are willing to waste and deface with extravagant frivols such as windmills, which cannot possibly fuel the economy.”
This man is an idiot. He refers in his post to “the green hatred of nuclear.” Fact is, I’m a tree hugger AND pro-nuke. So are a lot of other environmentalists. He's been wrong, he's wrong now, and he'll be wrong in the future.
Got another definition of "idiot" handy?
14 May, 2007
Green Housing = HOT!
“In a down housing market, green demand exceeds supply.” That headline from Nation’s Building News (publication of NAHB) pretty much says it all. CLICK HERE to see the item.
10 May, 2007
Energy Harvesting - From Your Foot
I've heard a bit about energy harvesting. This is an idea whose time has come.
The example I've heard about (a few times) -- to power a wireless sensor on a wall, include an energy harvesting mechanism. Whenever the wall vibrates (i.e., someone slams a door), the power generated by that vibration would be stored by the device (for use later).
Here's another one: Grab the energy wasted when you take a walk. From the item:
"When a person takes a step, a large amount of energy is given and taken away . . . Harnessing that energy has become more viable with piezoelectric polymers materials with molecules grouped as orderly crystals that produce an electrical voltage when pressure is applied."
Likely? Stupid? I don't know. But DARPA -- the defense agency that funded development of the Internet, you'll remember -- has kicked in $50K to help the researcher who is going after this. CLICK HERE for more.
10 May, 2007
Wind Power & Birds
THIS is another case of -- damned if you do, damned if you don't.
From 5/1/07 testimony before a House subcommittee by Donald Michael Fry of the American Bird Conservancy:
"While the actual number of birds killed by wind turbines is unknown, estimates have been m ade in the range of 30,00 to 60,000 per year at the current level of wind development.
"The wind industry is prepared to increase the number of turbines 30-fold over the next 20 years . . .
" [so] . . . the wind industry will be killed 900,000 to 1.8 million birds per year. While this number is a relatively small percentage of the total number of birds estimated to live in North America, many of the bird species being killed are already declining for othe reasons, and losses of more than a million birds per year would exacerbate these unexplained declines."
10 May, 2007
Bad News from Iraq
Yes, I know there's plenty of bad on the evening news from this war. I'm anti-war, but this is NOT an anti-war item. It's from a 4/29 New York Times article -- headline: "Inspectors Find Rebuilt Projects Crumbling in Iraq."
Here's the slice I chocked on:
"At the airport, crucially important for the functioning of the country, inspectors found that while $11.8 million had been spent on new electrical generators, $8.6 million worth were no longer functioning."
There's also this: When inspectors wanted to inspect a padlocked medical incinerator at a maternity hospital in Erbil -- the burner is described as "expensive" -- no one at the hospital could supply a key. Here's what the inspectors did find: "Medical waste, including syringes, used bandages, and empty drug vials, were clogging the sewage system and probably contaminating the water system. The newly built water purification system was not functioning either."
Forgot had bad things were under Saddam (perhaps this bad or worse). The United States of America has taken responsibility for this stuff.
We can do better.
10 May, 2007
Creating Green Revenue
10 May, 2007
Emissions Dropping?
The headline on a GreenBiz.com news item says "U.S. Greenhouse Emissions Slowly Begin to Drop." CLICK HERE to see it.
a. I had a problem with the headline before I read the item. How do you know they've begun to drop? ANSWER: You know NOTHING about the future.
b. I read the item. It says that "overall emissions during 2005 increased by less than one percent from the previous year."
So . . . an increase is a drop. And it's the beginning of something? I know stuff on the web is sloppy . . . this appears to be sloppy thinking.
A few words on, the item quotes the DOE saying "the slow growth in emissions" (i.e., the "drop" is still "Growth"). Hurray for the Energy folks, they (maybe) can think!
Further, the DOE quote says the reduced growth rate might be primarily due to higher energy prices "that suppressed demand . . . and weather disruptions."
10 May, 2007
9 Hot Consumer Technologies
10 May, 2007
750 Real Estate Blogs
08 May, 2007
BIM Links
08 May, 2007
'Must Have' Home Tech
08 May, 2007
Construction Mystery -- Solved?
07 May, 2007
'Become An IBS Contractor'
A slice from Tom's piece:
"Electrical contractors are uniquely qualified to provide IBS services to owners because they understand power, communications and control systems and how they are installed and operate. In addition to technical expertise, the electrical contractor has the management expertise, qualifications and financial ability to see that the job gets done right. If specific expertise or knowledge is needed that the electrical contractor does not have, the electrical contractor can identify other specialty contractors with the required expertise and coordinate the work for the owner."
07 May, 2007
Home Builders & Consolidation
NAHB says there were 1.463,700 housing starts last year. My quick math shows that the Top 13 home builders (those with closings in the double-digits or high revenues) -- combined -- show roughly 333,000 closing on the PB list. That's about 23%.
In my mind, that number is NOT all that much higher than just a few years ago. I turned to the bottom of the list, and #398 closed 135, #399 did 125, and #400 did 143. Big whoop!
Further, what I've learned about the home-building business -- as it concerns electrical, datacom, home automation/networking, and the like -- is that the "custom home" business is where the action is. There are houses with 33 telephones! These houses are generally built by "small" builders . . . some finishing as few as six houses a year.
07 May, 2007
News from NAED Annual
News items:
1. GE Supply has changed its name to Gexpro. The name change was mandated when General Electric sold the company to Rexel SA. The name change is indicative of not very much; but I get the feeling there's a lot going on beneath the surface at Gexpro.
2. Graybar Electric advertised in TED magazine (TED = "The Electrical Distributor"). The company wanted to tell the industry that it's not at all fond of private labeling. It's tough to assess the position of Graybar's large-distributor competitors on this; some say one thing and apparently do another. The key concern here -- the reason Graybar ran the advertisement, I would think -- is how branded manufacturers feel about selling their stuff through distributors (and retailers like Home Depot) that are competing with them via the private brand route. It's interesting to watch!
3. Of much less importance, I served as moderator for two sessions -- a panel of electrical contractors, repeated once. I was extremely fortunate in the contractors (Rob Heineman of Pueblo Electric in New Mexico, Donnell Kelley of Dynalectric in the D.C. area, and Jack Pullizzi of Bayside Electrical Testing in New Jersey.
Rob's company runs in the 40- to 50-electrician range; it does a lot of government work in Los Alamos. He's an interesting guy, offered a lot of good perspectives, and also is one of two serving elected vice presidents of the Independent Electrical Contractors.
Dyna is a unit of EMCOR Group, the largest electrical contractor in the U.S. Donnell is the local Dyna's top purchasing executive, responsible for the buying of materials that keep 800 electricians working every day. Remember -- the audience was electrical distributors and manufacturers (people who sell things to contractors), so Donnell's participation was vital.
Jack is a . . . jack of all trades! He's a friend of mine. Among other things, besides being a contractor, he works with large telecommunications companies in facilities management. He also has been (for more than 10 years, at least) the guy who reads over the "Ideas That Work" submitted to Electrical Contractor magazine; he reads off on them to make sure the ideas are legal and safe.
4. The two panel discussions (75 minutes each) featured the three men named above responding to questions -- most of them from the audience, with a few thrown in from me to keep things moving.
Most interesting -- Jack's prediction that more and more electrical equipment would be made in a modular manner, so the electricians in the field (who are already less numerous, and who he and others say have lower skill levels) will be able to "snap them together . . . like Legos."
News -- all three said their companies were doing off-site pre-fabrication of materials. This surprised me, because EMCOR/Dyna is a union electrical contractor. I asked Donnell a follow-up on that one, and he said his company WAS indeed doing pre-fab -- off-site, in a "laboratory"-type environment, with IBEW electricians.
Notable -- Rob noted that losing a bid isn't always the end of the world. Many times he's the #2 bidder on a project -- "losing" in the low-price competition to another contractor that might not be qualified, and in some cases isn't even capable of getting bonded. Some times, he said, the general contractor on such a job will pick his company instead of the low bidder . . . when Rob explains how much time and energy (and money) might be lost when the #1 bidder has continued troubles on the job.
04 May, 2007
Wireless & Industrial Automation
04 May, 2007
NPR on 'Green Grid'
SCOTT JAGOW: Today in Denver some bitter rivals in the tech business are hanging out together: Microsoft, Sun, Dell, HP, IBM. They won't be smoking any peace pipes, but they will talk about how to make their industry more friendly to the environment. Lisa Napoli has more.
LISA NAPOLI: The power needed to juice up computers, servers, A/C and other equipment at the world's technology companies has doubled over the past five years. And of course it just keeps accelerating.
JOHN TUCCILLO: The demand for energy in terms of the data center is outpacing the ability for technology to be able to deliver it.
That's John Tuccillo of American Power Conversion. He says that's why fierce technology rivals came together to form something called the Green Grid earlier this year. They figure that collectively these great engineering brains can figure out how to make computer data centers more efficient. Tuccillo says there are two reasons to do that.
TUCCILLO: There's an obvious environmental benefit, doing more for less, there's a cost benefit, again doing more for less.
The people gathering in Denver make up 90 percent of the world's computer systems makers. Their goal this week to is to come up with industry standards.
In Los Angeles, I'm Lisa Napoli for Marketplace.
04 May, 2007
Data Center in a Box
"Once power, a network connection, and water for cooling are plugged in, the container generates a supercomputer's worth of processing power . . .
"Rackable Systems released its own server-filled cargo container two weeks ago. The Silicon Valley company has already sold several, despite a $2M to $3M price tag.
"Both products can power field offices or provide a boost during a busy period."
04 May, 2007
Coal Factolito
"Peabody's coal alone fuels more than 10% of the nation's electricity."
04 May, 2007
Handhelds on the Job Site
future of technology -- which I expressed in columns years and years ago, and
in presentations -- was that the future would see construction electricians using
handheld computers.
My theory was simple:
b. The time of electricians would become more and more valuable (due to the worker
shortage, which I've been talking about for perhaps 10 years).
c. Therefore, contractors would give their electricians handheld computers,
probably with cameras. This would facilitate communication -- at the very
least with foremen and project managers on the job.
My considered opinion, back then: Once you give a tradesman who works for you
a handheld computer with a phone and a camera, the thing will create new uses
that will augment his productivity.
The handhelds would include cameras, I said [note that this was before cell phones
with digital photo capabilities became ubiquitous], because if an electrician
ran into some problem on a job, he could take a picture (or transmit live
digital images) to the foreman/proj. mgr./contractor. This would speed up
decision-making when problems were encountered.
I haven't changed my mind. If anything, technology now offers more capabilities
and is much cheaper than when I first said that out loud!
----------------
Here's what I found on this: The Peterborough City Council (in England)
has a housing repair team. The group has a computer-based work allocation system.
"Plumbers, electricians, carpenters, and bricklayers working within the city council's
city services division use palm-based PDAs to receive work assignments and report back
on the progress of each projectbeing undertaken vio a radio link," according
to a release.
Further; "The council says that . . . there have been huge increases in efficiency,
with 80% of repairs being completed on the first visit without any pre-inspections, and
customer satisifaction levels have risen clsoe to 100% . . .
"Under the previous paper-based operating system, non-urgent repairs could take
up to 20 days to complete, whereas now the average is 7 days."
04 May, 2007
Generational Differences
If you haven't, you might find the thought interesting. It's summed up in a chart that I found in a newsletter from a local chapter of IFMA.
CLICK HERE to download a 10-page PDF; see page 5.
03 May, 2007
Wal-Mart & Electrical Suppliers
As you might imagine, this didn't exactly go over big with the likes of GE, Sylvania or Phillips, which stand to sell a lot fewer bulbs if America switches to longer-lasting fluorescents.
You also can imagine how these firms might have reacted if the mandate for change came from government. Probably a big counteroffensive with lobbying, a PR campaign (remember how Harry and Louise sank universal health care?), and a lot of busy lawyers helping the industry drag its feet.
But when Wal-Mart says it wants something -- be it cheaper T-shirts, family-friendly DVDs, or more fluorescent light bulbs -- Wal-Mart usually gets it.
As the New York Times reported this week, a Wal-Mart buyer told the bulb-makers: "We are going there. You decide if you are coming with us."
And the bulb-makers are coming along.
03 May, 2007
They Had To Cut Somewhere
When they write the history of this era, historians will blink in disbelief at this. But the explanation is pretty clear: We had 12 years of Reagan-Bush, 8 years of a weak Clinton, followed by GW Bush. The idea was to shrink the government and cut taxes.
You can't shrink the government without shrinking SOMETHING. So we cut R&D into everything -- not just alternative energy, but nukes and fossil fuel too!
And then we ran out and installed more air conditioning, bought more computers and consumer electronics, purchased SUVs by the boatload, and drove more and more miles every year. Are we stupid, or what?
03 May, 2007
Union Electrician Wages
If you CLICK HERE, you'll download a 14-page PDF, Construction Labor Rate Trends and Outlook, dated 2/07. It's from CLRC, and it has regional averages for wages (and more) for the variosu trades, including electricians. Bob G put this together by getting recently signed labor agreements. So there's a page in there that compares the average rate for electricians in New England as of 1/1/02 ($37.35) with the rate as of 1/1/07 ($48.36) -- and, obviously, a lot more.
According to that page, the U.S. average for union electricians "wages and supplements" as of 1/01/07 was $51.78. It's 3rdd-highest in the group (behind the elevator guys and the plumbers).
03 May, 2007
China Wages: 67 cents/Hr.
Here's the awful truth: "The average hourly manufacturing compensation estimate for China in 2004 was $0.67, about 3% of the average hourly compensation costs of production workers in the United States . . . employees in China's urban areas continued to be compensated at a higher rate than those employed in town and village enterprises, $1.19 [per hour] vs. $0.45."
Did that feel like a slap in the face? Sure, you knew things were cheaper in China; and that's why manufacturers are moving E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G there.
If a guy works a 50-hour week in Shanghai, he get (gross) $59.50 for his efforts. A U.S. fella making $17/hour, and putting in a 35-hour week, gets $595/week before taxes. So if the U.S. guy could be so much more productive that he produced the same thing in 35 hours as the Chinese guy did in 50 . . . we'd still be at a 10-to-1 disadvantage.
I know folks knock the U.S. trade policies for losing jobs to Asia. But I'm not sure exactly how politicians could have fixed this problem in the past, or can fix it right now. If there's a reason to ban or reduce imports from China, it's because it's a Communist country, not because their people are willing to work for 3% of what our people do.
03 May, 2007
Construction PIP Data
2. Private residential construction is down 15.9% in the year's first 3 months. This is a harder number than anything you hear from the homebuilders (NAHB) or the realtors (NAR). The unadjusted value of residential construction in March 2007 was $43.62B, down from $51.85B in 3/06. That year-over-year comparison also amounts to a 15.9% decline.
3. Private nonresidential construction is up 15.6%.
4. While those resi-down/nonres up numbers resemble each other, resi is bigger (at $117.4 billion in Q1) than non-res ($75.1B in Q1).
5. The biggest % gain in the nonresidential submarkets was hotel construction, at 56.7% up. Total lodging construction was only $6.1B, however -- less than 10% of the overall.
6. The biggest $ gain in nonres submkts was office construction, up 31% -- and $2.9B (up to $12.13B in this year's Q1 vs. $9.23B last year).
7. It is the considered opinion of The EleBlog that office construction is either AT overbuilt, or heading to overbuilt. Lodging is going too fast, too.
8. Your tax dollars at work: Public construction, which includes a lot of stuff, was up 11.1% in Q1.
03 May, 2007
Q+A On Electrical + Bldg Automation
The NJATC is the National Joint Apprenticeship and Training Committee of the organized electrical construction industry (NECA-IBEW).
The occasion: NJATC is sponsoring sessions at BuilConn (May 22-24 in Rosemont, Ill.), the conference about integrated building systems (see www.builconn.com). CLICK HERE to see the NJATC track, on Tues. 5/22.
To see the Q+A, CLICK HERE.
03 May, 2007
Long Time No Post
I'm working on it. Sorry.
JOE
