EleBlog

31 Mar, 2007

Jeff Weil, a commercial real estate guy in California -- I've never met him -- sends out a free e-mail newsletter, Office Times. It's worth your time to subscribe, as it's interesting (and realistic) reading. He's recently added a page of links to Sustainable Office Building Resources -- CLICK HERE to go to it.

31 Mar, 2007

I'm 3/4ths of the way to becoming a believer in the Peak Oil theory, which says (in short) that the world is -- or will soon be -- past the peak in crude oil production. There's a lot to think about here. There's also a lot to say, a lot of it is being said! To kill an afternoon, "google" the term "peak oil" and follow the links, pro and con.

What I missed: The Government Accountability Office, which is a non-partisan research arm of Congress, issued an 82-page report, "Uncertainty About Future Oil Supply Makes It Important To Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production."

I just downloaded it; it's free. To get the PDF, CLICK HERE.

31 Mar, 2007

I'm a subscriber to the British magazine, New Scientist. It's a weekly, and it's good reading. The magazine has an Environment.newscientist.com Web site, which I checked out today. There's not a lot to report (you can't access some of the stuff unless you are a subscriber!) -- but on the site's Blog, I found a short entry about the downside of energy-saving light bulbs -- CLICK HERE to see it.

31 Mar, 2007

Neat article: "Power over Ethernet power consumption: The Hidden Costs." I stumbled across it. CLICK HERE to see it. Here's a slice:

"PoE for VoIP is just the first step; you're going to be powering more devices," noted Gary Audin, president of Delphi Inc., who has written extensively on power related to VoIP.

As more and more companies turn to LAN switches to power their VoIP deployments with PoE, Audin said, a good number fail to ensure that the wiring closet and data centers are ready to handle increased power consumption. In some cases, new wall sockets are required in order to power the switches that run PoE. In extreme cases, Audin said, an enterprise may have to rely on its utility company to run more power to the building itself.

Audin estimates that on a simple per-phone basis, running VoIP requires roughly 30% to 40% more power than old TDM phones. Running more equipment in the closet is also going to increase the amount of heat generated, requiring additional cooling, which in turn sucks up more power.

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28 Mar, 2007

TEDmag.com posted a column on copper prices by your humble EleBlogger on 3/21. Find it by clicking here. NOTE: I made a math error near the end, where it says you could buy the Dow Jones average for 414 pounds of copper. The actual "price" -- accurately calculated -- was 4,067 pounds. This sounds like a lot, but it is roughly one-third of the "price" of the Dow Jones Industry Average, as expressed in copper, in March 2002!

28 Mar, 2007

The USGS end-of-year preliminary wrap-up on '06 included info from the ICSG. The problem (I think) is that the ICSG admits that it does not have good information on supply and demand in China. This is kind of like forecasting the American League pennant race for the years 1949-60 . . . predicting the pennant winner, except you omit the New York Yankees (who won 10 pennants in those 12 years!).

International Copper Study Group (ICSG) data indicate
that the global refined copper market for the first 11
months of 2006 had an apparent production surplus of
about 108,000 t. This compares with a production
deficit of 263,000 t for the same period in 2005.

Reported stocks at the end of November of 955,000 t
were up by 104,000 t from those at yearend 2005, yet
remained well below the 1.78 Mt held at the end of
2003.

Owing to production disruptions in the first part
of the year, global mine production for the first 11
months of 2006 was essentially unchanged compared
with that in the same period of 2005. Total world
refined production, however, increased by 5.1% in the
first 11 months of 2006 compared with that of the same
period of 2005.

World refined usage increased by
about 2.6% compared with usage in the same period of
2005 (International Copper Study Group, 2007).

Again, these figures include guesses about what's going on in China. That does not necessarily make these numbers "wrong" (or valueless). But the surprises that keep happening in the copper market (in terms of price) are almost certainly attributable to fluctuations (whether stage-managed or caused by need) in Chinese buying and selling.

28 Mar, 2007

As you already know, 2006 was a wild ride for those buying or selling copper. Here's the USGS prelim analysis of what happened:

Copper prices continued their upward trend during the
first 5 months of the year, and in May the COMEX spot
price reached a record-high price of $4.08 per pound,
nearly twice the previous record-high price of $2.28 set
in December 2005.

The refined copper production
deficit that had persisted over the preceding 3 years
resulted in tight supplies, limited stock availability, and
concerns over supply adequacy.

Higher metal prices also led to increased speculative
interest in metal markets.

Prices generally trended downward during the
second half of the year, with the COMEX price
averaging $3.07 per pound in December and $3.15 per
pound for the year, an 81% increase from that in 2005.

Given some of the information contained in Copper 1-2-3 -- above or findable in the March 07 archive -- it's hard to believe that copper prices averaged $3.07/pound in 12/06, isn't it?

28 Mar, 2007

Also from the preliminary year-end USGS wrap-up on 2006 copper stuff:

U.S. reported consumption of refined copper declined
by 6% to the lowest level in 15 years and was down by
30% from peak consumption in 2000. Shipments by
domestic producers of wire rod declined by 5.8%, and
U.S apparent consumption of wire rod declined by
6.1% from that in 2005 (American Bureau of Metal
Statistics, 2007).

Shipments during the fourth quarter
were particularly week, declining by 23% from those
during the fourth quarter of 2005. The sharp decline
was attributed to the weak housing market and high
copper prices that encouraged destocking along the
entire supply chain.

It's hard to correlate the information presented above with copper prices (which are covered in the next item) and the U.S. economy as a whole. Copper consumption was down 30% from 2000? Wowser!

28 Mar, 2007

The USGS 12/06 survey report on copper included this paragraph:

Preliminary production data for the full-year 2006
indicate that U.S. mine production rose by 6%
compared with that in 2005: Production of copper in
concentrate rose by 15% while electrowon production
declined by 4%.

Concentrate output rose following a
return to full production at Asarco’s mines in Arizona,
whose production was reduced by a 16-week strike in
2005; increased output from the Bingham Canyon
Mine in Utah; and startup of concentrate production at
the Morenci Mine in Arizona.

Production of electrowon copper at Phelps Dodge Corp.’s mines in
the United States fell to 459,000 t from 483,000 t in
2005, while their production of copper in concentrate
declined by about 3% to 183,000 t (Phelps Dodge
Corp., 2007). Production of copper in concentrate at
Bingham Canyon rose by 20% to 266,000 t owing to
higher mill throughput and ore grades (Rio Tinto plc,
2007, p. 5). The Lisbon Valley Mine in Utah and the
Phoenix Mine in Arizona reported their first copper
production in 2006.

If I read that correctly, copper production in the U.S. rose by 6% last year. That helps explain the end-of-year decline in copper prices, maybe.

28 Mar, 2007

I've taken to posting the verbiage from the US Geological Survey's monthly "minerals industry survey" on copper. Today the 12/06 report arrived, and it's especially interesting. And long. So let's take it one thing at a time.

Here's the lead paragraph from the front-page article . . . which otherwise contains a lot of info about specific companies and their pet projects.

The average daily mine production of copper in December
was unchanged from that in November, according to data
compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey. Following the return
to full production in November of two smelters closed for
maintenance, the average daily smelter production in December
rose by 60% to the highest level since October 2005.

Downstream average daily electrolytically refined copper
production rose by 21% compared with that in November.

Consumption of refined copper continued its fourth quarter
downward slide, falling by 8% to its lowest monthly level in 20
years.

I don't know what to make of the fact that refined copper consumption in December hit its lowest monthly level in 20 years. One would thing the price would have fallen heavily.

28 Mar, 2007

Yesterday, I posted "Signs of Trouble" with links to releases pointing to NonResidential construction problems (one each from the Natl Assn of Realtors and the American Institute of Architects). Today, I checked the McGraw-Hill Construction Web site (www.construction.com) for the monthly evaluation of "new construction contract values" for February.

It posted 3/26. There's a lot of seasonally adjusted data in here, but the bottom line is in the bottom table on the page (CLICK HERE to see it) -- this is Year-To-Date Construction Starts -- UNADJUSTED. Figures in the table below are in millions of dollars.

WHAT'S IMPORTANT HERE -- of course, your eye is drawn to the 29% tumble in the value of residential construct contract starts. BUT: What you SHOULD be looking at (the EleBlog take) is the 2-month total in the Nonresidential Building column. It's flat. My guess before going to this page would have been that it would be UP.

Adding together the AIA, NAR + MHC reports, and at the very least we seem to have good reason to merit a caution flag.

	2 Mos. 2007 2 Mos. 2006 % Change Nonresidential Building $28,009 $28,018 -0 Residential Building 39,104 54,970 -29 Nonbuilding Construction 16,458 15,138 +9 Total Construction $83,571 $98,126 -15

27 Mar, 2007

I'm not sure how often anyone reading this will come across light bulbs containing Xenon gas, but Lighting.com just ran a short FAQ about these things. See it by clicking here.

27 Mar, 2007

As part of my various writing jobs, every week I print and read This Week In Petroleum, a free newsletter from the Energy Information Administration (unit, Dept. of Energy). It is often informative, and often boring.

In the March 21 edition, the lead item provides an interesting look at the difference between EIGHT grades of crude oil, and the $-per-barrel prices changes in each. If you wonder what the difference between WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and "Brent" -- and what comes out of places like Dubia, the North Slope of Alaska, and Nigeria -- you might find this interesting reading. Click here.

27 Mar, 2007

While many economic observers are (for good reason) looking at the sub-prime mortgage market, the decline in housing, etc., I've been trying to keep an eye on things like employment in electrical contracting and the non-residential construction market for clues to what is going on.

Here are two recent data points:


EleBlog take: Both of the releases have a positive spin, despite the negative "news" embedded in the data they report. I believe the NAR is perhaps the single organization most guilty of liberally applying the wrong "spin" to housing data, and therefore I am suspicious of what the org says; if NAR said the sky was blue, I'd be expecting green.

27 Mar, 2007

"When troubleshooting a typical alarm system, power is often the most likely cause for problems, and ultimately the least considered." That's the deck from a 2,200-word article in Security Distribution & Marketing covering the basics of electricity (as it applies to alarm techs). It's an interesting read -- mostly, for --

(a) what it says about the alarm industry's knowledge of electricity,

and

(b) what's implied (in between the lines) about how electrical contractors might be better at this work than the folks presently doing it!

See the article by clicking here. You might need to register to see it; that's free.

27 Mar, 2007

Jim Pinto, who has an amazing brain, has noted his "picks" for the Top Automation Technologies of 2007. They are:


See his newsletter by clicking here. You'll find Jim's "e-news" informative, stimulating, and perhaps even irritating. You can subscribe free; just poke around the site.

27 Mar, 2007

Attention is sometimes focused on The Yen Carry Trade. I believe we'll pay a lot more attention to that in the coming years, as it "unwinds." But if you want to think about such things, first you have to understand what you are talking about. A piece in the Global Money Trends newsletter provides a concise, understandable (I think) -- and simplified -- look:


You can find the piece from which this is taken by clicking here.

21 Mar, 2007

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has emitted its final (at least for now) figure for employment of "production workers" (field people) in electrical contracting. The number for 2006 is 706,900 -- up 35,800 (5.33%) over the 2005 figure. The 2006 number is the highest for the 10-year period 1997-2006 -- except for 2000 and 2001.

All-time peak year was '01, with 759,400. So we're not all that far from that!

As I just checked, preliminary data was also available for January 2007. Production worker employment in the EC industry was 708,000, as initially estimated by BLS -- or 4.47%. That's the best January since 2002 (which was on the downstroke side of the 1998-2001 boom), and is (again) exceeded only by the Jan figures for 2000 and 2001.

Peak MONTHLY employment during the boom was 784,100 in September 2000, a figure so high that it caused some people -- well, at least ME -- to say . . . "from where did all of these electricians come?" Hey, I've looked into it since, and they were NOT all electricians.

The monthly peak in 2006 came in August, at 728,100.

21 Mar, 2007

According to Network Computing, a survey of 228 readers with infrastructure responsibilities produced the data shown above. Add it up, and almost 50% of them say their going to upgrade cooling and power capacity, and another one-fourth are thinkin about it.

21 Mar, 2007

Sola/Hevi-Duty has published a short "white paper" on the impact of the 2005 Energy Policy Act on commercial tarnsformers. As just about every article I've seen on EPAct talks about lighting, I thought this to be a refreshing change. CLICK HERE to download the white paper.
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21 Mar, 2007

Electricity rates have gone up BIG in many places, but they've gone nuts in California. The rate schedule below (for Northern California, from Pacific Gas & Electric) is taken from RenewableEnergyAccess.com (see link below).

I have been encouraged to believe a similar rate schedule exists for Southern California -- with the rate on the highest end @ 51 cents/kWh.

Let's take a look at this. If you reach the highest rate below and you have a 60-watt light bulb and leave it on for 10 1/2 hours over two days, you've just tacked on 39 cents to your bill! If you typically use the bulb for 5.25 hours a day, the cost to operate that bulb (the marginal cost, assuming it's a bulb you turn on after all of your other electricity is in use) is on the order of $6/month.

That's for ONE light bulb.

If you are a true believer in Capitalism, Markets, and such, one tenet of your beliefs must be that Price Transmits Information. What information is being communicated here, with Big Users of electricity (on the residential end) getting shellacked with rates like 39 or 51 cents per kilowatt hour?

As the RenewableEnergyAccess article states, the idea is to push "Energy Hogs" off the grid. See the article here. That seems to be the idea, doesn't it?

PG&E Schedule E-1-Residential Service
Tier	Rate	Monthly Usage*
Baseline Usage	$0.11430	480 kWh
101% - 130% of Baseline	$0.12989	481 kWh - 625 kWh
131% - 200% of Baseline	$0.22944	626 kWh - 960 kWh
201% - 300% of Baseline	$0.32146	961 kWh - 1,440 kWh
Over 300% of Baseline	$0.36969	>1,440 kWh

18 Mar, 2007

As a writer for TED magazine (= "The Electrical Distributor") and its Web site, TEDMAG.com, I've devoted a lot of attention to the private equity backers of companies that are gobbling up electrical and other industrial distributors. Heck, it would appear that a combo of private equity companies may well be the ultimate buyer of Home Depot Supply -- which had $12 billion in 2006 sales!

But as there's so much low-cost money around these days (if you're a qualified borrower), the private equity people are everywhere. The point was driven home for me -- and maybe will be for you -- by a 1,381-word article on the ZweigWhite site, "Private Equity and the AEC Industry."

AEC = architecture, engineering, and construction.

ZweigWhite - a leading consulting and information-publishing firm.

Find the article by CLICKING HERE.

18 Mar, 2007

I recently had a discussion with a friend (at a restaurant) that infuriated me, sorta. He claimed, adamently, that a lot of crude oil was being used to generate electricity in the U.S. I told him he was totally off-base -- there was a diminishing amount of crude oil used for this, and it wasn't much BEFORE, and it sure as heck was MUCH LESS NOW.

I punted. We were at dinner. I couldn't prove my point.

Here's the latest data from the Energy Information Administration (an arm of the Dept. of Energy) -- on 2006:
Clearly, the figure is miniscule. Should it be lower? Damn right. But was it much higher in 2005? NOPE.

18 Mar, 2007

12 paragraphs into a 3/6 New York Times story, "Trials of Nuclear Rebuilding" -- datelined from Finland -- was this paragraph, which contains info I didn't have about global nuclear power:

"There are 435 nuclear reactors in operation world-wide, but most were built in the 1960s and 1970s. Finland last constructed a nuclear plant in the late 1970s, and Areva NP, the Areva-lead joint venture at Olkiluoto [Finland], hasn't been a lead contractor since the 1980s.

"Excluding Olkiluoto, 29 reactors are currently being built, mainly in Asia, but all are using old designs that Western European and U.S. nuclear-safety regulators won't allow."

I highlighted that last phrase. Doesn't it give you the chills?

18 Mar, 2007

Added a new link today to "Joe's Favorite Sites" on the lower right -- to a weekly blog by Adam Fein, Ph.D. I've worked with Adam, heard him speak, read his work. It's worth your time -- especially if you are in the distribution business, interact with distributors (as a customer), or send stuff to distributors (as a supplier).

18 Mar, 2007

Developed by Zensys, Z-Wave technology is (apparently) gaining ground in the home control technology space. Dealerscope magazine recently published a short, sweet "Cheat Sheet" about this technology -- get it here.

16 Mar, 2007

I was poking around the California Division of Apprenticeship Standards Web site today. That's the home page for the Electrician Certification deal that's been going on for 100 years, or thereabouts. On the site, I found a PDF that had 764 pages, listing the status of roughly 31,000 electricians. That's a lot! http://www.dir.ca.gov/DAS/Electricaltrade.htm

16 Mar, 2007

The price of copper topped $3.00/pound at the close today in New York trading (CLICK HERE for a variety of copper charts on Kitco.com).

If you go back to Feb. 23, I said "Copper Isn't a Dead Cat," in a post you can revist by clicking here.

Given the speed at which the commodity markets move, please excuse me for doing an end-zone dance -- NOW!

15 Mar, 2007

In doing some research, I stumbled across a report in the 10/06 issue of Hydrocarbon Processing (no, I'm not a regular reader!) carrying info on a projection from the ARC Advsory Group.

"The worldwide market for wireless technology in manufacturing is expected to grow an average 26%/year over the next five years." That will take it from $325.7 million in 2005 to more than $1 billion by 2010.

I know most electrical contractors didn't get into the business after looking at the wide world of opportunities -- most contractors started out as electricians. But you don't have to have an MBA to see that there's opportunity here, especially if you're in an area where manufacturing is still being done. Here's a piece of the rest of the HP article:

"A major factor favoring greater deployment of wireless technologies in manufacturing is the ability of wireless applications to enable new and better ways of operating manufacturing plants Process manufacturing stands to feel the greatest impact. Field operations within a process plant are a classic case of the need for more information that can only be delivered wirelessly

" . . . millions of field devices are installed at great cost in process manufacturing facilities. However, because most are not digitally enabled, their ability to share process and maintenance information is extremely limited. This presents a huge opportunity for wireless technology, which can be used to enable these 'stranded' assets to the benefit of operations, maintenance, and business systems across the enterprise."

15 Mar, 2007

A 2/23 press release from the Lighting op at GE C&I says the company could potentially "elevate the energy efficiency" of incandescent lamps. It's "targeted for market by 2010" -- so don't hold your breath, unless you can hold it that long. Read the release by clicking here.

Here's the slice that interested me, from a GE exec:

"We and other lighting manufacturers have been aggressive in developing and marketing CFLs. But consumers want more options and we plan to respond to their needs and deliver environmental benefits, too. It’s important that we offer consumers a full range of products that meet their personal desire to reduce their negative impact on the environment while preserving their ability to pick the best lighting product for their needs. That’s why we are moving aggressively to commercialize these new lamps."

What I did not see -- in the 18Seconds item on the DOE site (referenced in the previous item) or in the GE release -- is anything about LED lamps. I know for a fact that the first generation of "white" LED lamps for general use will be introduced this year.

At some point, we're going to need a chart that compares the energy efficiency AND the user reception of LEDs, CFLs . . . and now the "HEI incandescent" from GE.
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15 Mar, 2007

According to a news item on the DOE Web site, a "New Nationwide Effort Promotes a Switch to Energy Star Lights." See it by CLICKING HERE.

The gist: "the 18Seconds movement" is behind replacing an incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent (CFL). Why the strange name? "It takes only 18 seconds" to change light bulbs (is there a joke in this somewhere? 35 seconds for scientists? 2 hours and 11 minutes for Brittany Spears?).

As it turns out, if you go to 18seconds.org, you end up at http://green.yahoo.com.

I've already noted here (on 2/27 -- to see blog entry, CLICK HERE) that fluorescent lighting is not for everybody. I related my personal experience with trying to replace incandescents with CFLs.

As a spoiler, the DOE item noted that "Now that people are learning that CFLs use far less energy than incandescent light bulbs . . . GE is preparing to throw a wrench in the works." See next item.

14 Mar, 2007

I'm not on the press list for the Consumers Electronics Association and I didn't show up at the Electronic House Expo last week in Orlando (I wanted to, but missed work deadlines kept me at this friggin' computer!). So I'm writing this item up 3rd-hand, from a report in the 2/26 issue of This Week In Consumer Electronics (TWICE).

Here's a link. I'm not sure it will work for you; you might need to register.

"CEA/NAHB: Install Rates Flatten For Some Segments." NAHB = National Assn. of Home Builders. The two associations surveyed home builders on custom-installed electronic system inclusion in houses -- in the 5th "state of the builder technology market study." Two tables were offered in the publication -- and TWICE slapped a copyright notice on each one of them, so I'm not going to reproduce them here . . . altho I gotta say, putting a copyright on data produced by someone else's survey must require the same chutzpah that Pat Riley (a basketball coach) had when he copyrighted the term, "Three-peat."

[Pat Riley's term as coach of the New York Knickerbockers is the reason that I am no longer a Knicks' fan. And I was present at the famous Games 5 & 7 of the 1970 NBA playoffs!]

- - - - -

OK. To get back to the matter at hand, here's what I can WRITE from the copyrighted data:

Structured Wiring installation was reported at 45% of new homes in 2002 and 61% in 2004, but only 49% in '05 and 53% last year.

Multiroom Audio rose gradually from 9% in '02 to 16% last year. But that means 5 out of every 6 homes leave the builder's loving arms without this service.

All of the other techs named -- Home Theater, AUtomated Lighting Controls, Home Automation, and Energy Management -- were in the 6% to 12% range for 2006.

- - - - -

A separate table showed the # of builders who offer the technology (this is, you know, different from the # of homes!!!).

87% of builders offer structured wiring last year, which makes the 53% number above seem sort of pale. 78% of builders offered it in 2002.

Automated Lighting Controls were the big gainer in the table -- while 31% of builders offered that in 2002, the figure last year was 57%. Energy Management had a similar-sized gain, from 31% of builders saying they offered it five years ago to 52% last year.

- - - - -

According to the TWICE story, "CEA concluded that 1.02 million new homes were outfittined in 2005 with structured wiring, fallikng to 960,000 in 2006. Multiroom audio was installed in 310,000 new homes in 2005 but only 290,000 in 2006. Home theater installs fell from 230,000 in 2005 to 220,000 in 2006." Keep in mind these numbers are NEW homes, not ALL homes.

I'm not sure those numbers are related to what's happening in the real world. They are CEA's effort to match up NAHB new-home building figures with the % numbers in the survey. That's not scientific, really. It's a stab in the dark.

14 Mar, 2007

As you might know, many companies with stock in public hands have "conference calls" with financial analysts several times a year, usually right after they release quarterly earnings. Integrated Electrical Services, Inc. (symbol IESC) had one such event on 2/14; I've obtained a transcript. Two interesting things:

1. Near the end of the prepared company remarks, CEO Mike Caliel said this:


EleBlog take:

a. The way the info appears in the transcript, it appears to be a non sequitir. That's not terrible, but it is kind of weird.

b. This is a case of a CEO stepping on some significant news. Perhaps it doesn't really matter to Wall Streeters and investors, but the launch of a school-to-work program by the biggest "pure-play" electrical contractor in the U.S. is NEWS to most of the rest of the real world (i.e., big news for the electrical industry, construction industry, and school-to-work universe!).

c. I checked the Web site www.ies-co.com and I can't find a release on the school-to-work thing. The company is hiding its light under a bushel basket, in the old adage.

- - - -

2. Later on, in answer to a question, Caliel talked about the company's efforts to "improve the purchasing of the business," in the analyst/questioner's term:


a. At one time, distributors and manufacturers FEARED the prospect of IES getting its supply-chain effort together. This was in 1999-2000, when IES said it would be a $3 billion (annual sales) company by 2003, and when it was using its prospective size as leverage to knock down the prices it paid. Here we go again! However, this time IES is not prospectively a $3B company. IES will top $1B in sales in the current fiscal year -- but not by very much.

b. In the process of scouring the site to look for the school-to-work release, I found a 3/12 item that announced the hiring of Christopher Haas, 41, a refugee from CSX Transportation, as the veep of supply chain management at IES.

c. Earlier in the call, Caliel -- who hails from Invensys, by the way -- said the company was focusing initially on things like fuel purchases and vehicles in its supply efforts. But, clearly, it will get to wire and cable!

14 Mar, 2007

A new Web site -- an online TV show about the electrical construction industry -- launches today at www.electrictv.net. The site will be updated at least 6x a year (with video).

It's a product of the NECA-IBEW marketing effort. As I am marketing coordinator to their joint operation, I had a little -- very little -- to do with the site.

Whether you are pro-IBEW or anti-IBEW, you're going to want to click on that link and take a look.

13 Mar, 2007

I've been catching up on my reading. I recently read "back issues" of the weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland (you can CLICK HERE to see the archive). I recommend this without hesitation -- it's free and it's informative. I never miss a single issue.

Along with financial info and credit-market news you won't find anyplace else (at least not for FREE), Noland -- a person I do not know, by the way -- provides a roundup of key news you might otherwise miss. A sample is this quote from a 2/7 Bloomberg news item:

"China, the world's biggest energy user after the U.S>, plans to increase power generating capacity by 15% this year to meet rising demand . . . the nation will add 95 gigawatts of capacity by the end of 2007 . . . the nation had a 4th straight year of power shortage(s) last year, when consumption peaked in summer. The nation's total installed capacity increased by 20% in 2006 to 622 gigawatts."

OK -- so China added more than 100 gW in 2006 and is going to add another 95 mW this year. That means from 2005 to 2007, the Middle Kingdom will have gone from around 515 gW to 715 gW. WOW!

Hey - 95 gW = 95,000 megawatts. That's 95 power plants of 1,000 mW each, which is a big power station. This is impressive! But it's also depressing, if you think "man" causes global warming . . . as much of China's power is generated via the use of Coal.

13 Mar, 2007

From the recent Q4 conference call (with Wall Street analysts) held by EMCOR Group (I got a transcript):

Tony Guzzi, president/COO --


I guess Guzzi's comments best explain why data centers are a focus of The EleBlog.

13 Mar, 2007

In doing a news scan recently, I printed out an article from the January issue of Army Logistics -- not standard reading for me. It's a 3,886-word piece on "Energy On Demand" on how "the availability of instant, usable energy may revolutionize the way combat operatiosn are supported in the future battlespace."

Interesting reading? Yes. But here's a paragraph that somewhat surprised me:

"It is important to point out that a recent stud indicated that 70% of the convoys in Iraq transport fuel -- ideal targets fr our enemies. Transporting enormous quantities of fuel over vulnerable supply lines equates to an Achilles heel for an otherwise unmatched Army."

70%? Wow.

12 Mar, 2007

It's been a while since I've posted here the content of weekly columns I write for TEDMAG.com. CLICK HERE to go to the home page of TED's Weekly Special Report, where you'll find stuff I've written, more or less weekly, back to November.

Of more recent vintage:

Are Electrical Events . . . Withering? (2/28)

3rd Column On Preparing For The Bird Flu (2/22)

The Electrical Industry's Future (2/7)
-- Frank Bisbee was nice enough to include this in
the February "HOTS" at wireville.com

And perhaps just a bit ahead of its time --

Housing Crisis Verdict . . . Pop Goes The Bubble (12/13/06)

12 Mar, 2007

Energy & Power Management magazine included in its March issue a column by me titled as above. It's a curmudgeon's effort, the words of a grumpy old geezer. Worse, I expend words in one section to cite my Tree-Hugger bona fides (I got 'em, I used 'em). I don't know if that will do anything for you, but it definitely impressed the unholy heck out of me!

You might enjoy the column anyway -- CLICK HERE to see it (you might have to register, FREE, at the site).

12 Mar, 2007

There were 85 posts, total, on The EleBlog in January + February. I've posted each month's posts together as a downloadable MS Word document --

Click here for January.

Click here for February.

06 Mar, 2007

A Network Computing magazine feature that weighs in at more than 3,400 words talked about lessons learned in a "15-month project to design and build a 10,000-sq.-ft. data center." CLICK HERE to read it.

NwC is supposed to run stories about data centers, so it's no biggie, I guess. But here's the article's lead paragraph: "By next year, fully half of today's data centers will have insufficient power and cooling capacity to support high-density equipment, according to Gartner Predictions. We believe it, based on our own recent tests of the blade servers that are rapidly altering our computing infrastructures and changing how we deal with spiraling heat and power consumption."

While I've read the article, I didn't segregate sections to see how much of it was about Electrical stuff. I would say that, based on my initial reading and a quick scan just now, this article is MOSTLY about electrical and structured cabling considerations for state-of-the-art data center construction.

06 Mar, 2007

In recent weeks, some good news has come to one of my clients (NECA-IBEW) and the Web site it has set up to recruit young people into the electrical contracting industry. I'm thinking this is a good thing for everyone, but I'm presenting it here as a "personal" item -- as not every person in the EC industry is involved with the NECA-IBEW team.

1. Building Design & Construction presented the site with a "gold" honor in the Association/Government category -- in its Best Of The Web Awards. See them here:
http://www.bdcnetwork.com/article/ca6394059.html


2. Linda Monroe, editor of Buildings magazine, wrote about the site -- in the context of an editorial on the NECA-IBEW workforce recruiting efforts. See Linda's words here: http://www.buildings.com/Articles/detailBuildings.asp?ArticleID=3556

I wish I could take all, or even some, of the credit for www.electrifyingcareers.com. I can't. But at least I had something to do with getting the site up and running, and with implementing the thinking of NECA-IBEW on this project.

06 Mar, 2007

I have been talking about this for several years: As a middle class emerges -- and grows -- in India and China, we're going to have BIG problems. It's happening. And we are. A Toronto Star article (from 2/28) talks about this -- CLICK HERE to get to it; I apologize in advance if it's not still online.

The gist is in the subhed: "Demand exploding in India, China for air conditioners that use chemicals being banned here."

Some sample quotes:

• From a resident of Mumbai -- "All my friends have air conditioners now. Ten years ago, no one did."

• In China, ownership soared to 87.2 air conditioners per 100 urban households in September [2006], from 24.4 seven years earlier." This does not take into account that country's huge non-urban population!

• "China . . . is stepping up exports to the United States of air conditioners using [HCFC-22]." Note that production of this substance is banned in most industrial countries by 2020. The U.S. has banned domestic production as of 2010.

• Net-net: "The emissions of things like HCFC-22 -- we had thought they were sufficiently in control," according to a scientist. WRONG.

06 Mar, 2007

The Partnership for Advancing Technology in Housing (PATH) has identified the "10 cutting-edge innovations that point the way to a sustainable future for the American home." I read the item (on GreenerBuildings.com) over several times, because only one of them is -- vaguely -- about electrical, datacom, or home networking/automation stuff. No mention of lighting (people in the future won't read, so for what do they need light, anyway?).

Here's the article.

06 Mar, 2007

A release from Newton-Evans Research providings findings from a 9-month research study involving 240 electric utilities on protective relay usage patterns; 40 of the utes involved in the study were from outside of North America. Among the company's reported findings:

• On a worldwide basis, the annual market for medium and high voltage protective relaying products and equipment currently exceeds the $1.5 billion dollar level as we move further into the 21st century. Only a portion of the total market for protective relays is made up of the world’s electric utilities directly, with significant indirect sales made to industrial companies, to OEM suppliers that integrate relays into other equipment used by utilities and industrial/commercial end-users, and to independent power producers.

• There are currently at least six suppliers of protective relays and ancillary equipment that each enjoy a minimum of $125 million in sales into the global market (ABB, Areva T&D, GE, Nanjing Automation Research Institute, Schweitzer Engineering Labs, and Siemens). The Spanish firms Arteche and ZIV, the French firms Schneider and CEE, the Finnish firm Vaasa, as well as the UK division of the Eaton Electrical organization, are among the important “second-tier” suppliers based in Europe, with strong export potential. Their counterparts in North America include Basler, Beckwith, Cooper Power and NxtPhase, among others. In Asia, four Chinese manufacturers (including NARI, NAEF, Henan Xuji and Beijing Sifang) are now among the larger relay suppliers globally, and each is growing based on the huge and growing “home market” for protection and control of the expanding Chinese electric power grid. These are joined by some well-established Japanese relay manufacturers.

• The American firm, Schweitzer Engineering Labs, remains as one of the fast growing companies in the worldwide protective relay industry through year-end 2006, although the company’s growth rate has declined from earlier levels as their installed base and revenues have grown. The company’s global market presence and expanded array of relay-based offerings continue strong into 2007.

I tried to find this on the company's Web site (www.newton-evans.com) and failed. Here's a link to the release on the PowerOnline.com site.

06 Mar, 2007

There have been 7 underground electrical explosions in Connecticut towns in the past 18 months, all of them in the service area of Connecticut Light & Power. Much of the state is in an uproar over this, including the Attorney General, who accuses CL&P of . . . well, being ignorant, if you want to get to the bottom line. One person died recently (a 35-year-old electrician), altho it's not apparent how this happened.

My attention was diverted from this (while reading about it) by the following headline on a 2/26 Associated Press wire item: ""Downtown blasts bad for business, Waterbury merchants say."

No kidding.

Reading into the piece, there was a quote from a local guy: "People who come downtown may soon start saying, 'Look, there's a manhole. Am I going to get clobbered?'"

Here's the name of the guy quoted (and I really am NOT making this up): Ken Killer.

02 Mar, 2007

I don't think I've previous written about Electrochromic Windows. Beyond the obvious fact (you've got to Plug In Your Windows?) that they consume electrical energy, they offer a great potential return on that energy consumption . . . energy savings and comfort. An article posted to Buildings.com (click here to see it) talks about these "windows of the future" -- and offers useful illustrations of "a five-layer electrochromic coating."

Maybe you don't want to read up on this, but you're gonna enjoy looking at the pictures!

02 Mar, 2007

Perhaps you occasionally visit The EleBlog and wonder -- "Why is there so much on data centers?"

I can answer that, of course. But my answer is going to be something about "because they are important!"

You don't have to agree. But if you need to get "up to speed" on data centers now, or in the future, you might try the Executive Guide to Data Centers, posted (or updated) on Feb. 1. Get to it by clicking here.

02 Mar, 2007

. . . you use the Internet.

I'm not kidding. The Internet is the ultimate Energy Hog. According to an article in Network World (2/15) -- click here to see it -- "U.S. data centers account for 1.2% of the country's electricity consumption."

OK, the Internet is a blessing. It makes us more productive, business-wise and personally. But you have to consider that electricity is NOT very efficient. Generally speaking, the amount of useful energy you suck out of a receptacle is equal to about 35% of what the power company put in (it's a long story, but trust me).

Another factolito from the story: "Energy consumption in corporate data centers doubled between 2000 and 2005."

And another: A research firm, IDC, forecasts that "worldwide server energy consumption will increase 40% between 2005 and 2010" . . . and it could actually be higher.

02 Mar, 2007

Last week, I attended Electric West. During a session on solar energy, I thought I heard the speaker say something about rates being tiered, and that some people could well end up paying 51 cents per kilowatt hour in southern California.

Here are the problems with that:


I'm not kidding.

However, earlier this past week, I ran across an article on RenewableEnergyAccess.com -- "Solar for Energy Hogs." It's a controversial article (and might make interesting reading), but that's not why I'm referencing it (and linking to it).

Page down to the table on that page. Accoridng to the rate listing (for nothern California this time), if you use "200% of baseline" as a residential electric consumer in northern California, you'll be billed 32 cents per kWh. If you hit the 300%+ level, you'll pay 37 cents/kwh.

NOW, I'm pretty certain I don't need a hearing aid. OK, that's not the main point here. The point is that some people in California may well end up paying unreal rates for their electricity.

02 Mar, 2007

BICSI puts its monthly BICSI News online, where you can download it for free. The cover of the Nov/Dec '06 issue was "The Mess With Wireless Mesh" -- by the "chief scientist" with a systems integration firm. It's 3 1/2 pages of good stuff; you'll need to find a way past the fact that the designer or editor was dumb enough to put black type on a teal background (I am not making this up).

If you've ignored mesh articles previously (and several have been linked on this site over the past 2+ years) . . . read this one. Find it here.

02 Mar, 2007

Every month, ASHRAE makes an old article from the ASHRAE Journal available, free, for a brief time. As I'm not a member, I don't get the publication, so I get the association's e-mail newslettter and glance at what's on offer. Recently, I downloaded a PDF of "Assessing Risk of Legionella."

OK -- so this isn't directly relevant to electrical contractors. But it sure as heck IS relevant to HVAC contractors, people who breathe (100% of us, I would think) . . . and especially to me. In 2000, I came very close to death, thanks to the goddamn Legionella bacteria. I went on a vacation in Spain and came back to the U.S. with Legionnaire's Disease.

According to the article, "European Union estimates of incidence vary from 1 to 20 cases per million people . . . the true number of cases may be 20 times greater than this figure, since only a small fraction of cases are reported to public health authorities."

20 x 20 is 400 out of 1 million on the high end. A given human's chances of inhaling the bacteria and become deathly ill (i.e., what happened to me) are 4/100ths of 1%, then. And that a shaky number. They could be half that, or less.

That's as far as the article goes on numbers; from there, it progresses to discuss why people who operate ventilation systems might pay attention to this disease.

For me, the net result was both horrible and very positive. I spent 25 days in the hospital. On 13 of those days, the doctors and nurses used every trick they knew to bring my body temperature down but -- according to my wife -- it varied between 102 and 104 degrees (F). When they finally brought my temp down, they thought there might have been some brain damage (actually there was, but it was very minor).

Many people who get this disease die. Others lose major portions of their lung capacity. My pulmonogist told me of a patient who retained only 30% of his lung capacity; he was too weak to come to the doctor's office, the doctor said, so the doctor actually made house calls to see him (think about that!). I retained 100% of my lung capacity. So after coming in like a 125-to-1 long shot with the damn disease, I came through with flying colors.

If you're reading this and you own a building, think about having your air-handling system looked at -- regularly -- by professionals. You don't want to be guilty of killing people with the air you provide.