09 Nov, 2006
Why EC Employment Is Up
Some guesses:
a. The mix of construction is changing. Residential is growing much slower than nonresidential. Construction of new houses uses fewer electricians, relatively speaking, compared with an office building (and especially a power plant or a manufacturing building).
b. On any given job site -- generally speaking -- electricians are put to work "later" in the project's progress. So as nonresidential work progresses, one should (in theory) expect to see more electricians put to work.
c. I went back to double-check all of this theory and supposition. Overall construction employment in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was up 2.56% over 9/05. So the percentage employment gain in the month for electricians was double that of the industry as a whole.
b. On any given job site -- generally speaking -- electricians are put to work "later" in the project's progress. So as nonresidential work progresses, one should (in theory) expect to see more electricians put to work.
c. I went back to double-check all of this theory and supposition. Overall construction employment in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was up 2.56% over 9/05. So the percentage employment gain in the month for electricians was double that of the industry as a whole.
EleBlog projection -- I think we'll see MORE of what's outlined above -- a bigger drop-off in residential construction, a continuing boom in nonresidential work. In fact, there is already a skilled electrical worker shortage in some places (especially in power plant construction, which would mean employment of "linemen"). I expect nonresidential construction, as it hits its stride in 2007, to cause shortages of "inside" electricians as well.
By the way, in all of the articles I wrote earlier in this decade about the coming shortage of skilled electricians, I projected that it would happen in the 2006-2010 period. This does not make me a genius (I got a mirror!).
But it sure as heck makes me look like I know what I'm talking about!
09 Nov, 2006
September Construction Spending
I don't know if any of this means much, as you should not make too much out of one month's data. To my way of thinking, the 6.6% year-over-year increase in total unadjusted construction spending in the year's first nine months is the most significant data point in this report. I would think 6.6% exceeds inflation, even in construction, by a few percentage points.
If there's another headline in the data, it's the fact that private residential construction spending was up 1.2% through the nine-month period, to almost $482B. That's several points below the inflation rate, so we can say that, thus far in 2006, inflation-adjusted new housing construction is DOWN.
Nonresidential numbers were up 16.9% in the period. Here are the 9-month percentage increases for select components:
Lodging + 48%.
Transportation construction + 24%.
Manufacturing + 23%.
Amusement & recreation + 18%.
Power plants up 17.7%.
Office buildings + 16%.
Health care + 15%.
Commercial (which mostly means retail) + almost 13%.
09 Nov, 2006
EC Production Employment
I went back and checked, and that's the highest year-over-year increase of the year. Here are the other figures:
January 2006 -- 2.8% higher than Jan. 2005.
February -- 4.69% higher.
March -- 4.07% higher
April -- 4.01% higher than 4/05.
May -- 3.87% higher
June -- 4.15% higher
July -- 4.18% higher
August-- 4.84% higher
September -- 5.02% higher.
February -- 4.69% higher.
March -- 4.07% higher
April -- 4.01% higher than 4/05.
May -- 3.87% higher
June -- 4.15% higher
July -- 4.18% higher
August-- 4.84% higher
September -- 5.02% higher.
September is the first month of 2006 in which employment was NOT higher than the month previous. Of course, that's subject to revision.
